114 Lee Dr · Portlandville, NY 13807

$190,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,443 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1900 0.56 ac lot Est $300k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great little house on great big lot! 2 bedroom, 1 bath, newer roof, hot water heater and furnace. Room for expansion in unfinished 2nd story. Blacktop driveway. Goodyear Lake rights.

Key facts

• Lake community cabin
• 0.56 acre lot
• Built 1900

Tags

• LAKE COMMUNITY CABIN
• DEEDED ACCESS TO GOODYEAR LAKE
• GENEROUS .50 ACRE LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Well water; Holding tank sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing (previously built) condition
• Construction: Composite siding; Wood siding; Asphalt roof; Built previously (existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Covered porch; Shed(s) / exterior storage; Rectangular, rural lot; Beach and deeded access to Goodyear Lake (lakefront access)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms; Includes a bonus room
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Window air conditioning units; Heating information: see remarks
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Country-style kitchen; Pull-down attic stairs; Bedroom located on main level; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Milford Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #507 of 755 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 133 units permitted in Otsego County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Otsego County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $190k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $177,827 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.57%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,144
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
119 Larsen Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-3%)	0mo	$250,000	$178	76
2433 State Highway 28	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,488 (+3%)	6mo	$215,000	$144	59
117 Lakeshore Dr N	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,270 (-12%)	21mo	$264,000	$208	53
229 Lake Shore Dr S	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,654 (+15%)	20mo	$465,000	$281	42
252 Bob Wilson Rd	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	20mo	$329,000	$253	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $82,822
• Equity at exit: $141,454

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $234,869
• Equity at exit: $278,069

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13807

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,778 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,584/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,634

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $190,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   remarks 281-char remark
7. 2026-06-12
   listed $190,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,584 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,897 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$314/yr (+$26/mo · 12.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,339
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,584
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,707
• − Management: −$1,707
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$1,779
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$427
• After-tax cash flow: $1,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Milford Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619350
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,927
• Composite: 42.86/100
• National rank: #6725
• State rank: #507 of 755 in NY

Livability — Portlandville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,260

Population outlook (Otsego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,987 people
• By 2030: 55,403 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 50,336 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 45,715 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 38,769 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 33,468 · -42.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Romanian 8% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 3% Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otsego

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 46.1% · R 53.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: 5.9pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+5.0 2016: R+13.0 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.78%
• Current HPI: 421.1413
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+104.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $190,000 UNYREIS
• 2005-12-09 Sold (MLS) $82,000 UNYREIS
• 2005-09-23 Listed $92,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,584 · -39.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.