409 16th Ave NW · Center Point, AL 35215

$103,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,342 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1959 0.28 ac lot Est $130k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don’t miss this inviting 1-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, and a 1-car carport with a comfortable layout designed for everyday living. The main living area offers a welcoming space for relaxing or entertaining, while the kitchen provides everyday functionality with easy flow to the dining area. The bedrooms offer flexible space for guests, a home office, or hobbies.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1959

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; One carport space
• Utilities: Public water; Electric water heater; Underground utilities; Internet service available
• Home design: 4-side brick construction; Existing (previously built) property; Crawl space foundation; Subdivision: Bridlewood Forest
• Construction: 4-side brick exterior; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: No pool; No patio; No decks; No garden/patio; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countertops; Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level (approx. 15 x 11); Bedroom on main level (approx. 14 x 11); Bedroom on main level (approx. 12 x 11)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bath with tub/shower combo; One half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Ceilings: other (see remarks); No additional interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located on the main level (laundry space: other — see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $104k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $104k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 7.2% in Center Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#193 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, commute A, housing A; Watch: crime D, amenities F, employment F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Center Point Elementary School (618 students, 82% FRL); Erwin Middle School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #233 of 257 statewide, top 91%, 617 students, 94% FRL); Center Point High School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #291 of 305 statewide, top 100%, 774 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 49% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 6% at this address vs 20% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 336 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $718 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,341 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.41%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $130,174
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1409 4th Pl NW	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,363 (+2%)	2mo	$192,000	$141	79
512 15th Ave NW	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,447 (+8%)	2mo	$140,000	$97	70
512 16th Ter NW	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,225 (-9%)	1mo	$183,000	$149	69
1401 4th Way NW	0.36mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,380 (+3%)	4mo	$147,000	$107	66
1360 5th Pl NW	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,220 (-9%)	1mo	$92,500	$76	63
432 13th Ave NW	0.59mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,346 (+0%)	4mo	$35,100	$26	61
1712 4th Pl NW	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,182 (-12%)	3mo	$90,000	$76	60
1640 4th Way NW	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,144 (-15%)	4mo	$149,900	$131	60
348 17th Ave NW	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+8%)	4mo	$175,000	$120	59
1705 Lake Park Cir	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,339 (-0%)	1mo	$125,000	$93	58
437 Wedgeworth Rd	0.75mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,407 (+5%)	2mo	$114,900	$82	50
112 19th Ave NW	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,142 (-15%)	2mo	$108,500	$95	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,291
• Equity at exit: $15,492

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $24,765
• Equity at exit: $8,983

Cash invested: $29,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,335 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,407/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $977

Max offer price $103,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $342	-5% $312	+0% $283	+5% $254	+10% $224
Rent	-10% $177	-5% $230	+0% $283	+5% $336	+10% $388
Rate	-1.0pp $335	-0.5pp $309	base $283	+0.5pp $256	+1.0pp $229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,975
• Closing costs: $3,117
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
428 15th Ter NW Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1528	$1,795	$1.17	4d	1	0.05mi
434 15th Ter NW Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1053	$1,200	$1.14	45d	1	0.08mi
1617 3rd Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,150	$0.82	25d	1	0.14mi
1612 Glenwood St NW Center Point, AL	4.0	3.0	1344	$1,480	$1.10	25d	1	0.26mi
1700 4th Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	914	$1,075	$1.18	25d	1	0.29mi
500 15th Ave NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1079	$1,050	$0.97	4d	1	0.30mi
1712 4th Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1182	$1,150	$0.97	25d	1	0.31mi
405 18th Ave NW Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,299	$1.12	45d	1	0.40mi
1356 5th Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,105	$1.04	45d	1	0.43mi
1628 1st St NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1124	$1,150	$1.02	45d	1	0.45mi
324 13th Ter NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.5	1418	$1,295	$0.91	25d	1	0.45mi
1333 5th Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,275	$1.21	45d	1	0.47mi
1629 1st St NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,025	$1.14	25d	1	0.48mi
1732 6th St NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,250	$0.96	4d	1	0.49mi
621 15th Ave NW Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1070	$1,200	$1.12	17d	1	0.50mi
1736 6th St NW Center Point, AL	4.0	2.0	1830	$1,550	$0.85	45d	1	0.51mi
1328 5th Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,050	$0.84	17d	1	0.51mi
405 13th Ct NW Center Point, AL	4.0	1.5	1248	$1,415	$1.13	23d	1	0.52mi
305 18th Ct NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.5	1270	$1,100	$0.87	45d	1	0.54mi
1305 5th Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,200	$1.10	45d	1	0.56mi
400 13th Ave NW Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1100	$890	$0.81	45d	1	0.57mi
1301 5th Pl NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,100	$0.94	5d	1	0.58mi
1541 Charter East Cir NE Birmingham, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	807	$1,095	$1.36	3d	8	0.60mi
1237 Linwood St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1066	$995	$0.93	45d	1	0.60mi
108 13th Ave NW Center Point, AL	4.0	2.0	1444	$1,265	$0.88	25d	1	0.60mi
1628 1st St NE Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1027	$1,165	$1.13	45d	1	0.61mi
1232 Oakwood St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1301	$1,223	$0.94	25d	1	0.62mi
1225 Birchwood St Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,175	$1.08	5d	1	0.63mi
113 19th Ave NW Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,250	$0.89	13d	1	0.68mi
1905 2nd St NW Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1258	$1,395	$1.11	45d	1	0.69mi
1153 Linwood St Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,295	$1.04	4d	1	0.74mi
1827 Carson Rd Unit 7 Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.5	1332	$950	$0.71	25d	1	0.74mi
1827 Carson Rd Unit 1 Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.5	1332	$1,125	$0.84	45d	1	0.74mi
107 Sterling Ct NW Center Point, AL	2.0	1.5–2.0	1026	$1,062	$1.04	4d	4	0.76mi
457 Tupelo Way Center Point, AL	3.0	1.0	1658	$995	$0.60	23d	1	0.78mi
1259 Huffman Rd Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,556	$0.94	45d	1	0.79mi
617 Carson Crest Cir Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1528	$1,723	$1.13	17d	1	0.80mi
424 Tupelo Way Center Point, AL	4.0	2.0	1233	$1,300	$1.05	45d	1	0.82mi
1720 2nd St NE Center Point, AL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	45d	1	0.83mi
769 15th Ct NW Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.5	1130	$1,310	$1.16	13d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $103,900 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $103,900 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $103,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $103,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $103,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $103,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $103,900 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $103,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $103,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $103,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $103,900 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-05-22
    listed $103,900 Active
13. 2022-03-21
    price $1,150
14. 2022-03-17
    price $1,150
15. 2021-05-18
    soldstatus $7,237,964
16. 1978-12-08
    soldstatus $31,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,407 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,407 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,820
• − Property taxes: −$1,407
• − Insurance: −$1,317
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,282
• − Management: −$1,282
• − Depreciation: −$3,023
• Taxable income: $1,892
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$454
• After-tax cash flow: $2,941/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Center Point

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #193
• US rank: #15671

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Center Point, AL
• County: Jefferson County · 527,445 people
• City population: 210,422
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 43,903
• Household income: $52,793
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1729.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 75% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.97%
• Current HPI: 215.0607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.04%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+229.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $103,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-03-21 Price Changed $1,150 RENT.
• 2022-03-17 Price Changed $1,150 RENT.
• 2021-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $7,237,964 Public Records
• 1978-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $31,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,407 · +15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.