1423 Stanton St · Bay City, MI 48708

$113,650

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1911 7,405 sqft lot Est $132k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * Highest and Best due Friday 4/3 4pm * * * Located in a quiet neighborhood, this well cared for home has been lovingly maintained by the same owners for many years and offers low-maintenance living throughout. The main floor features a spacious kitchen, formal dining room, and living room, creating a layout that flows nicely for everyday living. Two bedrooms and a recently remodeled full bathroom are, also, conveniently located on the main level. Upstairs offers a large third bedroom with great potential, just awaiting your finishing touches, and a tall and spacious unfinished attic space. Enjoy relaxing mornings and evenings in the fully enclosed front porch. Additional highlight

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1911

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1.5 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential 1 1/2-story home; Built in 1911; Facing unspecified
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Basement foundation
• Exterior features: Porch; Sidewalks; Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen, 14 x 12, vinyl flooring
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom: 12 x 11, carpet; Main-level bedroom: 11 x 11, carpet; Second-level bedroom: 11, laminate
• Flooring: Carpet in living, dining and most bedrooms; Laminate in one bedroom; Vinyl in kitchen
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Sump pump; Basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $114k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $786 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1911 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $108,726 (4.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1911 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.79%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $132,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2420 Garfield Ave	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,022 (-2%)	2mo	$110,000	$108	89
308 High St	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,088 (+5%)	1mo	$188,000	$173	78
1307 33rd St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,084 (+4%)	0mo	$118,450	$109	73
1301 Marsac St	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,128 (+8%)	5mo	$75,000	$66	68
1312 Hine St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,074 (+3%)	3mo	$136,000	$127	64
1500 Wilson St	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,160 (+12%)	0mo	$175,000	$151	62
1705 Fitzhugh St	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,054 (+1%)	3mo	$140,000	$133	61
406 Stanton St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,044 (+0%)	2mo	$66,500	$64	59
2306 S Farragut St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,136 (+9%)	2mo	$140,000	$123	54
2114 S Madison Ave	0.41mi	2/1.5 (-1)	921 (-11%)	3mo	$125,000	$136	52
609 McCormick St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,156 (+11%)	3mo	$75,000	$65	52
1910 34th St	0.73mi	3/1.0	936 (-10%)	3mo	$125,000	$134	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-10,345
• Equity at exit: $16,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,339
• Equity at exit: $9,826

Cash invested: $31,822 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,087 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$596
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,063/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $927

Max offer price $113,650

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,412
• Closing costs: $3,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
403 Polk St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	748	$1,000	$1.34	43d	1	0.49mi
600 18th St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	43d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $113,650
3. 2026-04-03
   historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl
4. 2026-04-01
   listed $109,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,063 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,407 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$343/yr (+$29/mo · 32.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,366
• − Property taxes: −$1,063
• − Insurance: −$568
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,044
• − Management: −$1,044
• − Depreciation: −$3,306
• Taxable loss: −$344
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$83
• After-tax cash flow: $1,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+3.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $113,650 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-03 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $109,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,063 · -15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.