309 2nd St SW · Lakota, ND 58344

$98,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Other · 20 Days on market

Built 1978 0.72 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Coffee bar area
• Extra storage
• Full basement

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• COFFEE BAR AREA
• TILED SHOWER
• FULL BASEMENT
• EXTRA STORAGE
• DETACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Cooling present
• Interior features: Full basement; Window treatments

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#19 in ND, #3,699 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lakota 66 (rural): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #39 of 169 in ND (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lakota Elementary School (math 54% / reading 44%, grade D, #65 of 236 statewide, top 37%, 117 students, 30% FRL); Lakota High School (math 24% / reading 64%, grade F, #33 of 144 statewide, top 32%, 67 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Nelson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($681 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $95,591 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.38%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $22,623
• Equity at exit: $44,290

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $65,354
• Equity at exit: $68,256

Cash invested: $27,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58344

• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$517
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $336/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $741

Max offer price $98,500

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $225	-5% $197	+0% $170	+5% $142	+10% $114
Rent	-10% $94	-5% $132	+0% $170	+5% $207	+10% $245
Rate	-1.0pp $219	-0.5pp $195	base $170	+0.5pp $144	+1.0pp $118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,625
• Closing costs: $2,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $98,500 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,500 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,500 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $98,500 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $98,500 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $98,500 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $98,500 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $98,500 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $98,500 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-05-22
    listed $98,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $336 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $965 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$629/yr (+$52/mo · 187.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,471
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,518
• − Property taxes: −$336
• − Insurance: −$492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$918
• − Management: −$918
• − Depreciation: −$2,865
• Taxable income: $424
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$102
• After-tax cash flow: $1,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakota 66
• NCES district ID: 3810600
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,679
• Composite: 46.47/100
• National rank: #5326
• State rank: #39 of 169 in ND

Livability — Lakota

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #3699

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakota, ND
• Population (ZIP): 1,004

Population outlook (Nelson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,847 people
• By 2030: 2,797 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 2,737 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 2,854 · +0.2%
• By 2075: 3,790 · +33.1%
• By 2100: 5,304 · +86.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 31% Scotch-Irish 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nelson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.0) · D 33.0% · R 65.0% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.1pp toward R · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: -32.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.0 2020: R+31.2 2016: R+28.9 2012: R+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $98,500 GFAAR

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $336 · -46.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.