111 Mill St · Scobey, MT 59263

$85,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,098 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1920 $77/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two bedroom house has a fenced yard and a detached garage. Very comfortable, perfect starter home!

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Detached garage
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• DETACHED GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($998 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#20 in MT, #2,494 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Scobey K-12 Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #93 of 339 in MT (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.9% local appreciation)).
• Daniels County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (6.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.70%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,161
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -62.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $41,517
• Equity at exit: $58,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $111,595
• Equity at exit: $110,584

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59263

• Home prices YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,382/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $755

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $240	-5% $216	+0% $192	+5% $168	+10% $144
Rent	-10% $114	-5% $153	+0% $192	+5% $232	+10% $271
Rate	-1.0pp $235	-0.5pp $214	base $192	+0.5pp $170	+1.0pp $148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $85,000 Pending 36 DOM
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $85,000 Active 103-char remark

   Show marketing remark (103 chars)

   This two bedroom house has a fenced yard and a detached garage. Very comfortable, perfect starter home!

3. 2007-03-26
   soldstatus
4. 2002-06-06
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,382 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,382 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,382
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$958
• − Management: −$958
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $1,023
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$245
• After-tax cash flow: $2,063/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scobey K-12 Schools
• NCES district ID: 3023670
• Math proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,738
• Composite: 42.41/100
• National rank: #6908
• State rank: #93 of 339 in MT

Livability — Scobey

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #2494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scobey, MT
• Population (ZIP): 1,190

Population outlook (Daniels County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,788 people
• By 2030: 1,804 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 1,863 · +4.2%
• By 2050: 1,951 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 2,361 · +32.0%
• By 2100: 2,546 · +42.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Native American 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 29% Italian 6% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Daniels

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.2% · R 81.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.7pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+59.6 2016: R+59.0 2012: R+49.9 2008: R+32.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.92%
• Current HPI: 154.3614
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $85,000 HHLMLS
• 2007-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,382 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.