6 Erin Ct · Firthcliffe, NY 12518

$350,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1935 1.24 ac lot $254/sqft · 37% below area Est $558k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom 1 bath Cape Cod In Cornwall! Located on 1.25 Acres, this cape offers living room with brick fireplace/wood stove & hardwood flooring, family room with tons of natural light, open kitchen, formal dining room & a dinette with bay window & additional of built in cabinet space. 3 season mudroom with door out to side deck. Upper level with 3 bedrooms & full bath. Plenty of parking in your 2 bay carport with work shop. Sit & relax in your rear porch. Close to 9W,Beacon Newburgh Bridge, West Point & Bear Mt Bridge.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Wood stove
• Formal dining room

Tags

• BRICK FIREPLACE
• WOOD STOVE
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• NATURAL LIGHT
• OPEN KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-479 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (24.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.4% in Firthcliffe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#292 in NY, #4,743 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Cornwall Central School District (suburban): math 66% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #133 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $300k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,405 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.86%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $557,551
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -37.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-87,023
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-114,274
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12518

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,764 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$681 /mo · $8,174/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $-479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,370

Max offer price $265,405

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-281	-5% $-380	+0% $-479	+5% $-578	+10% $-677
Rent	-10% $-697	-5% $-588	+0% $-479	+5% $-370	+10% $-261
Rate	-1.0pp $-303	-0.5pp $-390	base $-479	+0.5pp $-570	+1.0pp $-662

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
75 Quaker Ave Apt 316 Cornwall, NY	3.0	2.0	1281	$2,895	$2.26	44d	1	1.23mi
9 Patton Dr Cornwall, NY	3.0	1.5	1320	$2,600	$1.97	24d	1	1.26mi
3 Eisenhower Dr Cornwall, NY	3.0	1.5	1320	$2,800	$2.12	44d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $350,000 Pending 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $350,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $350,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $350,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $350,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-05-12
   price $350,000 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   3 Bedroom 1 bath Cape Cod In Cornwall! Located on 1.25 Acres, this cape offers living room with brick fireplace/wood stove & hardwood flooring, family room with tons of natural light, open kitchen, formal dining room & a dinette with bay window & additional of built in cabinet space. 3 season mudroom with door out to side deck. Upper level with 3 bedrooms & full bath. Plenty of parking in your 2 bay carport with work shop. Sit & relax in your rear porch. Close to 9W,Beacon Newburgh Bridge, West Point & Bear Mt Bridge.

7. 2026-04-08
   price $360,000 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   3 Bedroom 1 bath Cape Cod In Cornwall! Located on 1.25 Acres, this cape offers living room with brick fireplace/wood stove & hardwood flooring, family room with tons of natural light, open kitchen, formal dining room & a dinette with bay window & additional of built in cabinet space. 3 season mudroom with door out to side deck. Upper level with 3 bedrooms & full bath. Plenty of parking in your 2 bay carport with work shop. Sit & relax in your rear porch. Close to 9W,Beacon Newburgh Bridge, West Point & Bear Mt Bridge.

8. 2026-03-10
   listed $370,000 Active 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   3 Bedroom 1 bath Cape Cod In Cornwall! Located on 1.25 Acres, this cape offers living room with brick fireplace/wood stove & hardwood flooring, family room with tons of natural light, open kitchen, formal dining room & a dinette with bay window & additional of built in cabinet space. 3 season mudroom with door out to side deck. Upper level with 3 bedrooms & full bath. Plenty of parking in your 2 bay carport with work shop. Sit & relax in your rear porch. Close to 9W,Beacon Newburgh Bridge, West Point & Bear Mt Bridge.

9. 2026-01-30
   historical
10. 2025-09-03
    listed $460,000 Active
11. 2006-08-21
    soldstatus $299,900
12. 2006-08-17
    soldstatus $299,900
13. 2006-06-21
    price $299,901
14. 2006-06-21
    historical
15. 2006-05-22
    listed $299,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,174 · $681/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,174 · $681/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$8,174
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,653
• − Management: −$2,653
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$11,850
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,844
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cornwall Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608430
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $88,331
• Composite: 60.96/100
• National rank: #805
• State rank: #133 of 590 in NY

Livability — Firthcliffe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #292
• US rank: #4743

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,728

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 4% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.79%
• Current HPI: 290.2188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+16.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $360,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Listed $370,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-03 Listed $460,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $299,900 Public Records
• 2006-08-17 Sold (MLS) $299,900 HGMLS
• 2006-06-21 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2006-06-21 Price Changed $299,901 HGMLS
• 2006-05-22 Listed $299,900 HGMLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,174 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.