423 S Lincoln St · Neosho, MO 64850

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,081 sqft · Other public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1955 8,550 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

It's a short walk to the Square from Home! This Quaint Bungalow offers 3 bedrooms plus a bonus room/potential 4th bedroom. Numerous 2021 updates including new laminate flooring, refrigerator (3 yrs old), electric range (3 yrs old) dishwasher, garbage disposal, thermal pane/double-hung windows and new interior doors. Kitchen has neutral ceramic tile floors. Rest assured with the new roof and plumbing lines replaced in 2018, Bedrooms have hardwood floors. Back yard has pet-tight fencing and an awesome storage shed.

Key facts

• Hard woods
• Bonus room
• Storage shed

Tags

• BUNGALOW
• HARD WOODS
• ABUNDANCE OF KITCHEN CABINETS
• BONUS ROOM
• STORAGE SHED
• EASY WALK TO THE SQUARE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage; Additional 1 parking space
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence, freestanding
• Construction: Block foundation; Composition roof; Built with typical residential construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Landscaped lot; Sloping topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range, refrigerator, dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes living spaces and bedrooms)
• Flooring: Laminate and wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; Cooling system present
• Interior features: Electric range, refrigerator, dishwasher; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $95k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.9% in Neosho — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#103 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Neosho School District (town): math 36% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #125 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Elem. (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #813 of 1,115 statewide, top 75%, 159 students, 76% FRL); Neosho Jr. High (math 41% / reading 48%, grade D, #113 of 391 statewide, top 31%, 748 students, 58% FRL); Neosho High (math 21% / reading 57%, grade F, #287 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 1,491 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 110 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,738 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.50%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-12,149
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-3,405
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64850

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $947 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $431/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $834

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $121	+0% $90	+5% $59	+10% $28
Rent	-10% $15	-5% $52	+0% $90	+5% $127	+10% $165
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $118	base $90	+0.5pp $61	+1.0pp $32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
606 W Hill St Neosho, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	0.06mi
PRV Neosho, MO	3.0	2.0	1408	$760	$0.54	16d	1	0.47mi
320 E Hickory St Neosho, MO	2.0	1.0	1400	$850	$0.61	22d	1	0.58mi
316 Wheeler St Neosho, MO	3.0	1.0	1414	$900	$0.64	25d	1	0.78mi
1229 Reid Rd Neosho, MO	2.0	1.0	973	$1,000	$1.03	25d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $110,000 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $110,000 Active Under Contract 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $110,000 Active Under Contract 39 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $110,000 Active Under Contract 38 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $110,000 Active Under Contract 37 DOM
6. 2026-04-23
   listed $110,000 Active 258-char remark
7. 2021-11-29
   soldstatus
8. 2021-11-24
   soldstatus 521-char remark

   Show marketing remark (519 chars)

   It's a short walk to the Square from Home! This Quaint Bungalow offers 3 bedrooms plus a bonus room/potential 4th bedroom. Numerous 2021 updates including new laminate flooring, refrigerator (3 yrs old), electric range (3 yrs old) dishwasher, garbage disposal, thermal pane/double-hung windows and new interior doors. Kitchen has neutral ceramic tile floors. Rest assured with the new roof and plumbing lines replaced in 2018, Bedrooms have hardwood floors. Back yard has pet-tight fencing and an awesome storage shed.

9. 2021-11-24
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (519 chars)

   It's a short walk to the Square from Home! This Quaint Bungalow offers 3 bedrooms plus a bonus room/potential 4th bedroom. Numerous 2021 updates including new laminate flooring, refrigerator (3 yrs old), electric range (3 yrs old) dishwasher, garbage disposal, thermal pane/double-hung windows and new interior doors. Kitchen has neutral ceramic tile floors. Rest assured with the new roof and plumbing lines replaced in 2018, Bedrooms have hardwood floors. Back yard has pet-tight fencing and an awesome storage shed.

10. 2021-08-16
    listed $94,000

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    It's a short walk to the Square from Home! This Quaint Bungalow offers 3 bedrooms plus a bonus room/potential 4th bedroom. Numerous 2021 updates including new laminate flooring, refrigerator (3 yrs old), electric range (3 yrs old) dishwasher, garbage disposal, thermal pane/double-hung windows and new interior doors. Kitchen has neutral ceramic tile floors. Rest assured with the new roof and plumbing lines replaced in 2018, Bedrooms have hardwood floors. Back yard has pet-tight fencing and an awesome storage shed.

11. 2021-08-16
    listed $94,000 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    It's a short walk to the Square from Home! This Quaint Bungalow offers 3 bedrooms plus a bonus room/potential 4th bedroom. Numerous 2021 updates including new laminate flooring, refrigerator (3 yrs old), electric range (3 yrs old) dishwasher, garbage disposal, thermal pane/double-hung windows and new interior doors. Kitchen has neutral ceramic tile floors. Rest assured with the new roof and plumbing lines replaced in 2018, Bedrooms have hardwood floors. Back yard has pet-tight fencing and an awesome storage shed.

12. 2018-09-27
    soldstatus
13. 2018-09-27
    soldstatus
14. 2018-07-03
    listed $73,000
15. 2018-07-02
    listed $73,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $431 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,067 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$636/yr (+$53/mo · 147.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$431
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$909
• − Management: −$909
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$793
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$190
• After-tax cash flow: $1,269/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Neosho School District
• NCES district ID: 2921810
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,574
• Composite: 35.21/100
• National rank: #4987
• State rank: #125 of 324 in MO

Livability — Neosho

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #103
• US rank: #6875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Neosho, MO
• Population (ZIP): 25,355

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,151 people
• By 2030: 58,961 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 57,609 · -2.6%
• By 2050: 54,775 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 46,140 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 34,348 · -41.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.6) · D 20.2% · R 78.8% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.5pp toward R · 2008: -40.1pp · 2024: -58.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.6 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+58.7 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+40.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.98%
• Current HPI: 295.9911
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+50.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — OGAR
• 2026-05-20 Contingent — OGAR
• 2026-04-23 Listed $110,000 OGAR
• 2021-11-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-24 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2021-11-24 Sold (MLS) — OGAR
• 2021-08-16 Listed $94,000 SOMO
• 2021-08-16 Listed $94,000 OGAR
• 2018-09-27 Sold (MLS) — OGAR
• 2018-09-27 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2018-07-03 Listed $73,000 SOMO
• 2018-07-02 Listed $73,000 OGAR

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $431 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.