1548 Valley Frst · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2008 0.29 ac lot $194/sqft · 15% below area Est $300k · 15% under $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Hill Country retreat near Canyon Lake! Situated on two spacious lots with mature trees, this charming home offers privacy and room to relax. The open floor plan and split-bedroom layout create a comfortable flow perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Just minutes from the boat ramp and golf course. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway or full-time lake living, this property is the perfect escape. Subdivision has a club house and community pool.

Key facts

• Hill country retreat
• Two spacious lots
• Open floor plan

Tags

• HILL COUNTRY RETREAT
• TWO SPACIOUS LOTS
• MATURE TREES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• BOAT RAMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-266 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,777 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.47%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,699
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -14.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1548 Valley Frst	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,312 (0%)	1mo	$255,000	$194	100
1420 Canyon Bnd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,294 (-1%)	5mo	$267,700	$207	91
2319 Westview	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+0%)	2mo	$280,000	$213	88
209 Lake Forest Frst	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+2%)	6mo	$329,000	$245	77
1291 Springwater	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,401 (+7%)	1mo	$309,000	$221	72
3084 Rustler	0.36mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,289 (-2%)	10mo	$265,000	$206	65
800 Eastview	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-2%)	8mo	$289,900	$225	64
1127 Eastview Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,181 (-10%)	3mo	$170,000	$144	63
729 Canyon Bnd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,367 (+4%)	1mo	$285,000	$208	62
2549 Grandview	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,447 (+10%)	3mo	$319,000	$220	61
698 Hillclimb	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,470 (+12%)	6mo	$319,900	$218	54
112 Sunrise Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,228 (-6%)	10mo	$125,000	$102	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-63,776
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-98,697
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,898 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,785/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,234

Max offer price $208,061

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-121	-5% $-194	+0% $-266	+5% $-338	+10% $-410
Rent	-10% $-416	-5% $-341	+0% $-266	+5% $-191	+10% $-116
Rate	-1.0pp $-137	-0.5pp $-201	base $-266	+0.5pp $-332	+1.0pp $-399

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1618 Valley Frst Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,700	$1.29	18d	1	0.06mi
1618 Valley Frst Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,700	$1.29	44d	1	0.06mi
1475 Bonnyview Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,800	$1.36	24d	1	0.23mi
662 Hillclimb Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	1.5	1345	$1,950	$1.45	44d	1	0.35mi
520 Lake Frst Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	3.0	1606	$3,125	$1.95	22d	1	0.56mi
421 Watts Ln Unit B4 Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.5	1309	$1,250	$0.95	24d	1	0.73mi
421 Watts Ln Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.5	1309	$1,450	$1.11	11d	1	0.73mi
705 Firefly Dr Unit 1365728P Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$4,127	$2.27	2d	1	0.91mi
612 Mockingbird Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,950	$1.37	11d	1	1.11mi
4348 Morningside Way Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	1166	$1,550	$1.33	20d	1	1.22mi
2676 Woodcrest Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1180	$2,100	$1.78	44d	1	1.30mi
1569 Comfort Unit Na Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	15d	1	1.43mi
1569 Comfort Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	18d	1	1.43mi
1104 Blueridge Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	44d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Beautiful Hill Country retreat near Canyon Lake! Situated on two spacious lots with mature trees, this charming home offers privacy and room to relax. The open floor plan and split-bedroom layout create a comfortable flow perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Just minutes from the boat ramp and golf course. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway or full-time lake living, this property is the perfect escape. Subdivision has a club house and community pool.

2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Beautiful Hill Country retreat near Canyon Lake! Situated on two spacious lots with mature trees, this charming home offers privacy and room to relax. The open floor plan and split-bedroom layout create a comfortable flow perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Just minutes from the boat ramp and golf course. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway or full-time lake living, this property is the perfect escape. Subdivision has a club house and community pool.

3. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Under Contract 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Beautiful Hill Country retreat near Canyon Lake! Situated on two spacious lots with mature trees, this charming home offers privacy and room to relax. The open floor plan and split-bedroom layout create a comfortable flow perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Just minutes from the boat ramp and golf course. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway or full-time lake living, this property is the perfect escape. Subdivision has a club house and community pool.

4. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Option 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Beautiful Hill Country retreat near Canyon Lake! Situated on two spacious lots with mature trees, this charming home offers privacy and room to relax. The open floor plan and split-bedroom layout create a comfortable flow perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Just minutes from the boat ramp and golf course. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway or full-time lake living, this property is the perfect escape. Subdivision has a club house and community pool.

5. 2026-04-29
   price $255,000 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Beautiful Hill Country retreat near Canyon Lake! Situated on two spacious lots with mature trees, this charming home offers privacy and room to relax. The open floor plan and split-bedroom layout create a comfortable flow perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Just minutes from the boat ramp and golf course. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway or full-time lake living, this property is the perfect escape. Subdivision has a club house and community pool.

6. 2026-04-29
   price $255,000 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Beautiful Hill Country retreat near Canyon Lake! Situated on two spacious lots with mature trees, this charming home offers privacy and room to relax. The open floor plan and split-bedroom layout create a comfortable flow perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Just minutes from the boat ramp and golf course. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway or full-time lake living, this property is the perfect escape. Subdivision has a club house and community pool.

7. 2026-04-15
   listed $267,000 New 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Beautiful Hill Country retreat near Canyon Lake! Situated on two spacious lots with mature trees, this charming home offers privacy and room to relax. The open floor plan and split-bedroom layout create a comfortable flow perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Just minutes from the boat ramp and golf course. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway or full-time lake living, this property is the perfect escape. Subdivision has a club house and community pool.

8. 2026-04-13
   price $267,000 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Beautiful Hill Country retreat near Canyon Lake! Situated on two spacious lots with mature trees, this charming home offers privacy and room to relax. The open floor plan and split-bedroom layout create a comfortable flow perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Just minutes from the boat ramp and golf course. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway or full-time lake living, this property is the perfect escape. Subdivision has a club house and community pool.

9. 2026-03-05
   listed $270,000 Active 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Beautiful Hill Country retreat near Canyon Lake! Situated on two spacious lots with mature trees, this charming home offers privacy and room to relax. The open floor plan and split-bedroom layout create a comfortable flow perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Just minutes from the boat ramp and golf course. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway or full-time lake living, this property is the perfect escape. Subdivision has a club house and community pool.

10. 2019-12-14
    status Active
11. 2019-11-23
    historical
12. 2019-11-23
    historical
13. 2019-11-23
    historical Hold
14. 2019-11-22
    status Active
15. 2019-11-22
    status Back on Market
16. 2019-11-15
    status Pending
17. 2019-11-15
    historical Active Option
18. 2019-10-24
    price $229,900
19. 2019-10-23
    price $229,500
20. 2019-10-23
    price $229,900
21. 2019-10-23
    price $229,500
22. 2019-10-02
    price $235,999
23. 2019-10-01
    price $235,999
24. 2019-09-13
    listed $240,000 Active
25. 2019-09-13
    listed $240,000 New
26. 2019-06-07
    historical
27. 2019-05-21
    listed $240,000 New
28. 2019-05-21
    listed $230,000 New
29. 2019-05-21
    historical
30. 2017-08-01
    soldstatus Sold
31. 2017-07-24
    soldstatus Sold
32. 2017-07-20
    soldstatus Sold
33. 2017-07-15
    historical
34. 2017-07-03
    status Pending
35. 2017-06-27
    status Pending
36. 2017-06-22
    status Option Pending
37. 2017-06-22
    status Pending - Taking Backups
38. 2017-06-22
    status Pending with Option
39. 2017-06-22
    historical Active Option
40. 2017-06-19
    listed $199,000 Active
41. 2017-06-19
    listed $199,000 Active
42. 2017-06-17
    listed $199,000 Active
43. 2017-06-17
    listed $199,000 New
44. 2016-09-10
    soldstatus Sold
45. 2016-07-28
    status Pending
46. 2016-06-27
    historical Active Option
47. 2016-05-24
    price $170,000
48. 2016-05-13
    listed $170,000
49. 2016-03-04
    listed $175,000 New
50. 2009-02-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,785 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,666 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: +$881/yr (+$73/mo · 23.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$3,785
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,822
• − Management: −$1,822
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$7,705
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,849
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+45.7% since first listed

52 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — LERA
• 2026-05-14 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $255,000 LERA
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $255,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $267,000 LERA
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $267,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $270,000 CTXMLS
• 2019-12-14 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2019-11-23 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2019-11-23 Delisted — CTXMLS
• 2019-11-23 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2019-11-22 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2019-11-22 Relisted — LERA
• 2019-11-15 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2019-11-15 Contingent — LERA
• 2019-10-24 Price Changed $229,900 LERA
• 2019-10-23 Price Changed $229,500 LERA
• 2019-10-23 Price Changed $229,900 CTXMLS
• 2019-10-23 Price Changed $229,500 CTXMLS
• 2019-10-02 Price Changed $235,999 LERA
• 2019-10-01 Price Changed $235,999 CTXMLS
• 2019-09-13 Listed $240,000 CTXMLS
• 2019-09-13 Listed $240,000 LERA
• 2019-06-07 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2019-05-21 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2019-05-21 Listed $230,000 LERA
• 2019-05-21 Listed $240,000 LERA
• 2017-08-01 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2017-07-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-07-20 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2017-07-15 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2017-07-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-06-27 Pending — LERA
• 2017-06-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-06-22 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2017-06-22 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2017-06-22 Contingent — LERA
• 2017-06-19 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2017-06-19 Listed $199,000 Unlock MLS
• 2017-06-17 Listed $199,000 CTXMLS
• 2017-06-17 Listed $199,000 LERA
• 2016-09-10 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2016-07-28 Pending — LERA
• 2016-06-27 Contingent — LERA
• 2016-05-24 Price Changed $170,000 LERA
• 2016-05-13 Listed $170,000 CTXMLS
• 2016-03-04 Listed $175,000 LERA
• 2009-02-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-03-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,785 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.