5301 E Commerce Way #44104 · Sacramento, CA 95835

$349,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,354 sqft · Condo public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2022 $515/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream home at 5301 E Commerce Way, a stunning townhome located in the heart of Sacramento's vibrant Aritsan Square. This rare end-unit is beautifully maintained with upgraded features. It features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2.5 modern bathrooms, perfect for comfortable living. As you enter, you'll be greeted by an open-concept living space filled with natural light, showcasing high ceilings and elegant finishes (Living room photos are Virtually Staged). The kitchen boasts stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, quartz countertop and a stylish breakfast bar, ideal for entertaining or enjoying casual meals. The community offers fantastic amenities, including a refreshing poo

Key facts

• Quartz countertop
• Hot tub
• Refreshing pool

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOP
• BREAKFAST BAR
• REFRESHING POOL
• HOT TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-826 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (41.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (41.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Natomas Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #155 of 517 in CA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: H. Allen Hight Elementary (802 students, 59% FRL); Natomas Middle (662 students, 65% FRL); Inderkum High (math 39% / reading 66%, grade C-, #289 of 1,170 statewide, top 25%, 2,266 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 408 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A99 (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,985 (41.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.58%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.18% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $114,534
• Equity at exit: $294,622

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.74×
• Total profit: $366,760
• Equity at exit: $614,651

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95835

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,924 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$515 /mo · $6,183/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$515
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $-826

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,970

Max offer price $203,985

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-628	-5% $-727	+0% $-826	+5% $-925	+10% $-1,024
Rent	-10% $-1,057	-5% $-942	+0% $-826	+5% $-710	+10% $-595
Rate	-1.0pp $-650	-0.5pp $-737	base $-826	+0.5pp $-917	+1.0pp $-1,009

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5301 E Commerce Way #34103 Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1774	$3,000	$1.69	0d	1	0.05mi
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,648	$1.98	18d	3	0.07mi
5301 E Commerce Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1334	$2,662	$2.00	26d	2	0.07mi
5301 E Commerce Way #58104 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1315	$2,900	$2.21	0d	1	0.16mi
11 Long Warf Pl Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1708	$2,795	$1.64	0d	1	0.18mi
5215 Noyack Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1673	$2,595	$1.55	0d	1	0.19mi
3396 Shaker Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1815	$3,250	$1.79	14d	1	0.39mi
30 Sheen Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,850	$1.73	46d	1	0.44mi
3712 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$4,000	$2.41	5d	1	0.57mi
3044 Enchanted Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1351	$2,300	$1.70	0d	1	0.60mi
3766 Bayou Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,675	$1.61	46d	1	0.63mi
3301 N Park Dr Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1678	$2,672	$1.59	46d	2	0.70mi
260 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	3.0	1697	$2,650	$1.56	10d	1	0.73mi
570 Wapello Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1697	$3,000	$1.77	46d	1	0.84mi
5050 Trouville Ln Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1583	$2,950	$1.86	46d	1	0.86mi
4800 Westlake Pkwy #3008 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1304	$2,250	$1.73	46d	1	1.08mi
4800 Westlake Pkwy Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.5	1214	$2,250	$1.85	4d	3	1.09mi
4800 Kokomo Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1229	$3,819	$3.11	0d	24	1.16mi
5350 Dunlay Dr #911 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,750	$1.81	0d	1	1.23mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	20d	3	1.23mi
5350 Dunlay Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1585	$2,750	$1.74	24d	2	1.23mi
620 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1681	$2,595	$1.54	46d	1	1.26mi
301 Candela Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1541	$2,750	$1.78	17d	1	1.28mi
130 Penhow Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1618	$2,400	$1.48	1d	1	1.32mi
4450 El Centro Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,334	$2.59	0d	11	1.36mi
17 Hertford Cir Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1511	$2,450	$1.62	26d	1	1.47mi
4470 Saone Walk Sacramento, CA	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1846	$2,595	$1.41	0d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $515 · $6,180/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,183 · $515/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,183 · $515/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A99 · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,091
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$6,183
• − Insurance: −$3,252
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,807
• − Management: −$2,807
• − HOA: −$6,180
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$15,917
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,820
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natomas Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600036
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $67,969
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3457
• State rank: #155 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,004
• Household income: $114,468
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1234.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 30% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Other Indo-European 10% Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Current HPI: 271.4823
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+51.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,183 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.