8218 Kavanagh Rd · Dundalk, MD 21222

$205,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,046 sqft · Townhouse public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1954 1,307 sqft lot Est $182k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +1.8/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hardwood floors on 1st & 2nd fls. Updated kitchen & bath.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Formal dining room
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• COUNTRY STYLE KITCHEN
• BUILT-IN MICROWAVE
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Ground rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling fuel; Natural gas for heating and hot water
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Property in good condition; Above-grade finished area estimated
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Above-grade structures present
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Sidewalks; Partial fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Stove; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Country-style kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first upper level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom on the lower level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating and hot water; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floor plan with a formal dining room and separate dining area; Attic; Tub with shower; Ceiling fan(s); Wood floors; Carpet
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in the basement; Water heater included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($109/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#16 in MD, #510 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 236 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $205k implies a 242% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,727 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.19%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,004
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8339 Kavanagh Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,016 (-3%)	3mo	$240,000	$236	75
8028 Kavanagh	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,024 (-2%)	6mo	$167,000	$163	69
1922 Codd Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,024 (-2%)	10mo	$177,800	$174	69
8429 Kavanagh	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+7%)	11mo	$172,500	$154	60
1927 Codd Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (+9%)	8mo	$190,000	$166	60
1649 Gray Haven Ct	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-4%)	3mo	$255,000	$253	57
8333 Kavanagh Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	896 (-14%)	2mo	$177,000	$198	56
8059 Gray Haven Rd	0.60mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,048 (+0%)	12mo	$160,000	$153	55
8435 Kavanagh Rd	0.33mi	2/1.0	896 (-14%)	8mo	$115,000	$128	54
8142 Del Haven Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (+9%)	3mo	$171,000	$149	51
7829 Scholar Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+10%)	2mo	$252,500	$219	45
8144 Gray Haven Rd	0.58mi	3/1.5 (+1)	928 (-11%)	7mo	$175,000	$189	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-38,007
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-53,078
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21222

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,847 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,478/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,836

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1930 Frames Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1152	$2,099	$1.82	5d	1	0.16mi
1925 Jasmine Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$1,825	$1.78	11d	1	0.19mi
2004 Larkhall Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	44d	1	0.29mi
2025 Kelmore Rd Unit 1 Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$2,000	$1.95	44d	1	0.30mi
2032 Kelmore Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,700	$1.66	44d	1	0.31mi
2020 Dineen Dr Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.5	1258	$1,850	$1.47	5d	1	0.33mi
7962 Kavanagh Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,947	$1.90	15d	1	0.35mi
311 Wise Ave Dundalk, MD	1.0	1.0	818	$1,045	$1.28	44d	1	0.39mi
11 Seabright Ave Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	948	$1,874	$1.98	15d	1	0.42mi
7930 Kavanagh Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$2,195	$2.14	44d	1	0.42mi
7917 Wise Ave Dundalk, MD	2.0	1.5	1500	$2,500	$1.67	24d	1	0.42mi
1610 Melbourne Rd Dundalk, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	664	$1,240	$1.87	13d	1	0.47mi
8146 Del Haven Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,700	$1.90	16d	1	0.47mi
7901 Stratman Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	890	$1,647	$1.85	2d	1	0.49mi
8499 Lynch Rd Dundalk, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,720	$1.81	2d	32	0.54mi
4004 Saint Monica Dr Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,925	$1.88	5d	1	0.80mi
4004 St Monica Dr Unit 1 Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,895	$1.85	5d	1	0.80mi
7860 Saint Claire Ln Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,200	$2.15	5d	1	0.90mi
414 Westfield Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$2,300	$2.25	44d	1	0.91mi
3000 Wallford Dr Dundalk, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	717	$1,330	$1.85	3d	35	0.98mi
3221 Wallford Dr Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,750	$1.74	4d	1	1.00mi
3221 Wallford Dr Unit 3221 Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,750	$1.74	5d	1	1.00mi
1915 Merritt Blvd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,500	$2.07	44d	1	1.02mi
7851 Saint Fabian Ln Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,595	$1.56	44d	1	1.03mi
7863 Saint Fabian Ln Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,950	$1.37	5d	1	1.04mi
3413 Wallford Dr Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1016	$2,000	$1.97	44d	1	1.04mi
3314 Wallford Dr Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1258	$1,850	$1.47	15d	1	1.04mi
3427 North Point Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1008	$2,250	$2.23	20d	1	1.10mi
3317 Belsford Ct Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	1258	$1,950	$1.55	11d	1	1.15mi
7508 Ives Ln Dundalk, MD	2.0	1.0	896	$1,750	$1.95	44d	1	1.29mi
8220 Cornwall Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,775	$1.58	44d	1	1.30mi
7718 Meath Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	864	$2,200	$2.55	44d	1	1.35mi
7 Robinson Ave Dundalk, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,600	$2.36	44d	1	1.38mi
3503 Sollers Point Rd Dundalk, MD	3.0	1.0	776	$1,850	$2.38	13d	1	1.45mi
2936 Yorkway #2 Dundalk, MD	1.0	1.0	1254	$950	$0.76	13d	1	1.45mi
2939 Cornwall Rd Unit C Dundalk, MD	1.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	44d	1	1.48mi
2907 Cornwall Rd Unit Road2nd Dundalk, MD	1.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	18d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $205,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $205,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,478 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,478 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,478
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,773
• − Management: −$1,773
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$3,329
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$799
• After-tax cash flow: $908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Dundalk

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #510

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundalk, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 59,407
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 59,407
• Household income: $64,141
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2566.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -251.44%
• Current HPI: 228.4218
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.09%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+619.3% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $205,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-03-07 Delisted — MRIS
• 2013-02-28 Sold (MLS) $60,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-02-28 Sold (MLS) $60,000 MRIS
• 2013-02-05 Pending — MRIS
• 2013-02-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-01-14 Listed $70,000 MRIS
• 2013-01-14 Listed $70,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-03-12 Sold (MLS) $140,000 MRIS
• 2007-02-02 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-01-17 Listed $136,900 MRIS
• 2007-01-17 Listed — MRIS
• 2005-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $141,900 Public Records
• 2005-11-29 Sold (MLS) $141,900 MRIS
• 2005-10-18 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-09-22 Listed $141,900 MRIS
• 2005-06-01 Sold (MLS) $97,250 MRIS
• 2005-04-27 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-04-21 Listed $89,250 MRIS
• 1978-06-21 Sold (Public Records) $28,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,478 · +16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.