2853 Blue Jay St · Federal Heights, CO 80260

$65,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 54 Days on market

Built 1975 Fair condition 5,000 sqft lot Est $52k · 26% over ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 Bedroom Home in Federal Heights Nice Home located in the heart of Federal Heights. This home feature update appliances, Lights, Double Pane Windows and a remodeled bathroom. Close to Restaurants, Shopping, Grocery Stores and Bus Stops. Priced to Sell!!

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Close to restaurants
• Remodeled bathroom

Tags

• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• CLOSE TO RESTAURANTS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO GROCERY STORES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Denver Cascade park (individual ownership of the mobile home); Lot number 147
• HOA & community: Association: Denver Cascade (professionally managed); Association amenities include clubhouse, playground, and pool; Monthly association fee (includes road maintenance and snow removal); Land lease in place (monthly land lease $1,350; lease expires November 30, 2024)

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces; 3-car carport; Asphalt parking surface
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected (220 volts); Natural gas available and connected; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured in-park mobile home; Faces south; Single-story (manufactured home)
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Skirted with metal; Model: A E; Mobile home dimensions approximately 66' x 14'
• Exterior features: Private yard; Covered front porch; Full yard fencing; Paved, public road frontage on a privately maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Garbage disposal; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan; No stairs
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.0% vs local median 4.2% in Federal Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#28 in CO, #3,380 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F.
• Adams 12 Five Star Schools (suburban): math 31% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #26 of 86 in CO (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Federal Heights Elementary School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #958 of 966 statewide, top 100%, 414 students, 87% FRL); Northglenn Middle School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #246 of 270 statewide, top 91%, 684 students, 85% FRL); Northglenn High School (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #257 of 381 statewide, top 68%, 1,959 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 33% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Adams 12 Five Star Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 136 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,299 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (343 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.83%
• DSCR: 3.97
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $51,744
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2810 Cascade Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	952 (+3%)	2mo	$65,000	$68	87
2710 Warbler St	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (0%)	5mo	$23,000	$25	79
9760 Peacock St	0.10mi	3/2.0	896 (-3%)	9mo	$65,000	$73	79
2820 Cascade Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	840 (-9%)	7mo	$75,000	$89	68
2940 Hawk St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+14%)	7mo	$75,000	$71	58
1801 W 92nd Ave	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	840 (-9%)	1mo	$35,000	$42	46
1801 W 92nd Ave #229	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (-10%)	8mo	$50,500	$61	43
1801 W 92nd Ave #218	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,024 (+11%)	2mo	$33,000	$32	42
1801 W 92nd Ave	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,024 (+11%)	4mo	$55,000	$54	41
1801 W 92nd Ave	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,024 (+11%)	5mo	$47,000	$46	40
1801 W 92nd Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+14%)	8mo	$54,000	$51	37
2100 W 100th Ave #394	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+14%)	8mo	$59,000	$56	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $49,991
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $110,828
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80260

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,852 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $1,014

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,059	-5% $1,036	+0% $1,014	+5% $991	+10% $969
Rent	-10% $867	-5% $941	+0% $1,014	+5% $1,087	+10% $1,160
Rate	-1.0pp $1,046	-0.5pp $1,030	base $1,014	+0.5pp $997	+1.0pp $980

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3323 W 96th Cir Westminster, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1190	$3,339	$2.81	2d	21	0.58mi
1801 W 92nd Ave #754 Denver, CO	3.0	2.0	1123	$1,995	$1.78	5d	1	0.62mi
2700 W 103rd Ave Denver, CO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	729	$1,970	$2.70	3d	13	0.69mi
9151 Fontaine St Denver, CO	2.0	1.0	700	$1,313	$1.88	3d	1	0.70mi
10251 Zuni St Denver, CO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,724	$2.15	2d	16	0.70mi
10211 Ura Ln Thornton, CO	1.0–2.0	1.0	709	$1,325	$1.87	17d	3	0.78mi
9081 Federal Blvd Westminster, CO	2.0	1.0	855	$1,466	$1.72	3d	3	0.79mi
9050 N Elm Ct Unit 1 Federal Heights, CO	2.0	1.0	912	$1,745	$1.91	5d	1	0.81mi
8865 Federal Blvd #202 Denver, CO	2.0	1.0	1067	$1,700	$1.59	12d	1	1.05mi
8670 Clay St Unit 5107 Westminster, CO	2.0	2.0	951	$1,891	$1.99	24d	1	1.26mi
8670 Clay St Unit 7309 Westminster, CO	2.0	2.0	951	$1,761	$1.85	24d	1	1.26mi
8670 Clay St Unit 5201 Westminster, CO	3.0	2.0	1110	$2,550	$2.30	24d	1	1.26mi
8670 Clay St Unit 6301 Westminster, CO	3.0	2.0	1110	$2,325	$2.09	24d	1	1.26mi
8670 Clay St Unit 5309 Westminster, CO	2.0	2.0	1111	$2,206	$1.99	24d	1	1.26mi
8670 Clay St Unit 4312 Westminster, CO	2.0	1.0	1038	$1,891	$1.82	24d	1	1.26mi
8670 Clay St Unit 7220 Westminster, CO	2.0	1.0	1038	$1,761	$1.70	24d	1	1.26mi
8670 Clay St Unit 4211 Westminster, CO	3.0	2.0	1110	$2,186	$1.97	24d	1	1.26mi
8670 Clay St Unit 7317 Westminster, CO	2.0	2.0	1111	$2,054	$1.85	24d	1	1.27mi
8670 Clay St Unit 5307 Westminster, CO	2.0	2.0	951	$1,891	$1.99	5d	1	1.27mi
8670 Clay St Unit 7219 Westminster, CO	3.0	2.0	1110	$2,373	$2.14	24d	1	1.27mi
747 W 96th Ave Denver, CO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,395	$1.61	5d	1	1.30mi
747 W 96th Ave Denver, CO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,395	$1.61	25d	1	1.30mi
707 W 96th Ave Thornton, CO	3.0	1.0	859	$1,350	$1.57	25d	1	1.32mi
8918 Mccoy Pl Unit 8906 Westminster, CO	2.0	1.0	800	$1,400	$1.75	5d	1	1.32mi
8943 Mccoy Pl Westminster, CO	2.0	1.0	850	$1,550	$1.82	18d	1	1.32mi
9189 Gale Blvd Thornton, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	755	$1,699	$2.25	25d	1	1.33mi
950 W 103rd Pl Northglenn, CO	2.0	1.0	820	$1,399	$1.71	25d	3	1.38mi
2740 W 86th Ave Westminster, CO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,565	$1.56	3d	2	1.39mi
8778 Osage St Thornton, CO	2.0	1.0	949	$1,495	$1.58	22d	1	1.45mi
8778 Osage St Thornton, CO	2.0	2.0	960	$1,495	$1.56	24d	1	1.45mi
4901 W 93rd Ave Westminster, CO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	981	$2,333	$2.38	2d	24	1.47mi
10701 Pecos St Northglenn, CO	1.0–2.0	1.0	650	$1,559	$2.40	2d	16	1.50mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    listed $65,000 Active
17. 2026-03-05
    historical
18. 2025-09-09
    price $69,000
19. 2025-09-09
    status Active
20. 2025-08-22
    historical
21. 2025-01-31
    price $79,900
22. 2024-09-26
    price $84,900
23. 2024-08-24
    listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,221
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,778
• − Management: −$1,778
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $11,833
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,840
• After-tax cash flow: $9,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Key areas for improvement include the exterior siding, kitchen, and bathroom. Painting and updating these areas would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Worn and dirty
• Moderate kitchen — Cluttered and needs cleaning
• Moderate bathroom — Small and dated

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both Clean and organize kitchen — A clean and organized kitchen enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Worn and dirty	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · Cluttered and needs cleaning	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom · Small and dated	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$21,000–80,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Clean and organize kitchen — A clean and organized kitchen enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Adams 12 Five Star Schools
• NCES district ID: 0806900
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $67,478
• Composite: 34.87/100
• National rank: #5086
• State rank: #26 of 86 in CO

Livability — Federal Heights

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #3380

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Federal Heights, CO
• County: Adams County · 464,133 people
• City population: 34,677
• Metro: Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
• Population (ZIP): 34,677
• Household income: $61,852
• Rent vs Own: 37.6% rent · 62.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1521.0

Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 598,184 people
• By 2030: 651,880 · +9.0%
• By 2040: 759,778 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 862,889 · +44.3%
• By 2075: 1,085,994 · +81.5%
• By 2100: 1,211,318 · +102.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% White 30% Two or more races 26% Asian 3% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 42% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.2% · R 44.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 18.4pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+16.3 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+15.1 2008: D+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.84%
• Current HPI: 285.4552
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.77%
• Metro: Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-27.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $65,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-09 Price Changed $69,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-09 Relisted — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-31 Price Changed $79,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-26 Price Changed $84,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-24 Listed $90,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid