110 Lynnbank Estates Rd · Kittrell, NC 27544

$87,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1990 0.48 ac lot ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor's Dream! 3BR/2BA Ranch on Half-Acre Lot - Handyman Special This one-story ranch offers endless potential! Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, this spacious home sits on a generous half-acre lot in a scenic, peaceful setting in the heart of Vance County. Just 40 minutes from Raleigh and RTP, this property is perfect for investors or DIY enthusiasts ready to bring their renovation vision to life. Don't miss this opportunity to create value in a growing area with convenient access to city amenities and country charm.

Key facts

• Half-acre lot
• One-story ranch
• 0.48 acre lot

Tags

• HALF-ACRE LOT
• ONE-STORY RANCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $87k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $814 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $87k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#462 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Vance County Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #166 of 178 in NC (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Zeb Vance Elementary (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,410 statewide, top 82%, 333 students, 99% FRL); Vance County Middle School (math 13% / reading 17%, grade F, #459 of 475 statewide, top 97%, 797 students, 100% FRL); Vance County High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #499 of 535 statewide, top 94%, 958 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Vance County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($601 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Vance County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 36% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,695 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.11%
• DSCR: 2.78
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,520
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
70 Lynnbank Estates Rd	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,185 (+14%)	5mo	$202,000	$170	71
225 Meadow Dr	0.59mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,145 (+10%)	11mo	$215,000	$188	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.07×
• Total profit: $99,265
• Equity at exit: $78,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.9%
• Equity multiple: 11.33×
• Total profit: $251,582
• Equity at exit: $169,022

Cash invested: $24,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27544

• Home prices YoY: 10.1%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,784 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$456
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,232/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $814

Break-even live

Break-even rent $753

Max offer price $87,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,750
• Closing costs: $2,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-09-18
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-31
   status Active
3. 2025-08-31
   price $87,000
4. 2025-08-30
   historical
5. 2025-08-29
   listed $127,900 Active
6. 2024-02-08
   status Pending
7. 2024-02-04
   historical
8. 2023-11-11
   listed $130,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,232 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,232 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 36% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,873
• − Property taxes: −$1,232
• − Insurance: −$435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,713
• − Management: −$1,713
• − Depreciation: −$2,531
• Taxable income: $8,912
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,139
• After-tax cash flow: $7,632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vance County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704650
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,323
• Composite: 19.29/100
• National rank: #8801
• State rank: #166 of 178 in NC

Livability — Kittrell

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #462
• US rank: #16869

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,991

Population outlook (Vance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,985 people
• By 2030: 40,286 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 36,372 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 32,466 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 24,229 · -42.3%
• By 2100: 17,784 · -57.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Vance

• 2024 margin: D (+13.3) · D 56.3% · R 42.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: 13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.3 2020: D+19.2 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+28.3 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.25%
• Current HPI: 221.0497
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-33.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-18 Pending — TMLS
• 2025-08-31 Relisted — TMLS
• 2025-08-31 Price Changed $87,000 TMLS
• 2025-08-30 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $127,900 TMLS
• 2024-02-08 Pending — TMLS
• 2024-02-04 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2023-11-11 Listed $130,990 TMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,232 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.