251 Zyra Ave · San Marcos, TX 78130

$217,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot Est $203k · 7% over $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +4.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Kitson- An inviting open-concept floorplan serves as the heart of this single-level home, providing for seamless transitions between the kitchen, dining area and family room. A restful owner's suite is located at the back of home, featuring a comfortable bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms can be found off the entry. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• TWO SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $218k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-711/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bowie El (math 17% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 479 students, 74% FRL); Goodnight Middle (math 9% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,536 of 1,662 statewide, top 93%, 866 students, 85% FRL); San Marcos H S (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,536 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 63% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1931 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,860 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $203,290
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
239 Zyra Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	0mo	$218,999	$156	100
251 Zyra Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	1mo	$217,999	$155	99
3140 Dispatch Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+5%)	0mo	$212,999	$145	91
3188 Dispatch Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+5%)	1mo	$211,999	$144	91
3164 Dispatch Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+5%)	1mo	$216,999	$147	91
3160 Dispatch Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-10%)	1mo	$198,999	$158	82
235 Zyra Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+12%)	1mo	$227,999	$145	74
414 Sauvignon Pt	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+12%)	1mo	$228,999	$145	74
255 Zyra Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	1mo	$229,999	$144	71
215 Zyra Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	1mo	$227,999	$142	71
271 Zyra Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	1mo	$230,999	$144	71
422 Sauvignon Pt	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	1mo	$261,999	$164	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-44,748
• Equity at exit: $32,504

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-65,637
• Equity at exit: $18,849

Cash invested: $61,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1931
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,959 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$272 /mo · $3,270/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,034

Max offer price $209,426

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $91	-5% $16	+0% $-59	+5% $-135	+10% $-210
Rent	-10% $-214	-5% $-137	+0% $-59	+5% $18	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $51	-0.5pp $-4	base $-59	+0.5pp $-116	+1.0pp $-173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,500
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3135 Dispatch DR New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,690	$1.15	25d	1	0.04mi
3179 Dispatch DR New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,250	$1.22	0d	1	0.04mi
3188 Dispatch DR New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,700	$1.15	3d	1	0.04mi
3175 Dispatch DR New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,250	$1.22	0d	1	0.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   price $217,999
3. 2026-02-28
   price $222,999
4. 2026-02-24
   price $223,999
5. 2026-02-17
   price $222,999
6. 2026-02-10
   listed $223,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,503
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$3,270
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,880
• − Management: −$1,880
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable loss: −$4,370
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,049
• After-tax cash flow: $338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern and inviting interior. It offers a good balance of curb appeal and interior updates, making it a solid investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Modern technology can attract buyers and renters.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances can significantly boost the home's appeal to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Modern technology can attract buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances can significantly boost the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — LERA
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $217,999 LERA
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $222,999 LERA
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $223,999 LERA
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $222,999 LERA
• 2026-02-10 Listed $223,999 LERA