5890 County Road 11 · Odessa, NY 14805

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,308 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1870 1.63 ac lot $103/sqft · 53% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Classic home in the Village of Alpine, 2 bedrooms with a possible 3rd. Extra room could have many possible uses, 3rd bedroom, office, game room, or many possibilities and has its own exterior entrance. Kitchen with laundry and a formal dinning room. Living room with propane fireplace for additional heat. Partially fenced back yard gives you privacy from neighbors. Home is walking distance to the Connecticut Hill State Forest. Listing agent is related to the seller.

Key facts

• Exterior entrance
• 1.63 acre lot
• Built 1870

Tags

• EXTERIOR ENTRANCE
• PARTIALLY FENCED BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($452/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#602 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Odessa-Montour Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #383 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Schuyler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Schuyler County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $135k implies a 382% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $121,427 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,205
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: 53.05%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5885 County Road 11	0.07mi	2/1.5	1,184 (-10%)	4mo	$149,000	$126	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $10,275
• Equity at exit: $51,771

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $44,234
• Equity at exit: $73,432

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14805

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,889/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,167

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $76	+0% $38	+5% $-1	+10% $-39
Rent	-10% $-58	-5% $-10	+0% $38	+5% $86	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $106	-0.5pp $72	base $38	+0.5pp $3	+1.0pp $-33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $135,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 46 DOM
18. 2026-04-13
    listed $135,000 Active 469-char remark

    Show marketing remark (469 chars)

    Classic home in the Village of Alpine, 2 bedrooms with a possible 3rd. Extra room could have many possible uses, 3rd bedroom, office, game room, or many possibilities and has its own exterior entrance. Kitchen with laundry and a formal dinning room. Living room with propane fireplace for additional heat. Partially fenced back yard gives you privacy from neighbors. Home is walking distance to the Connecticut Hill State Forest. Listing agent is related to the seller.

19. 2025-11-30
    historical
20. 2025-10-06
    price $139,000
21. 2025-09-01
    price $145,000
22. 2025-06-30
    listed $160,000 Active
23. 2009-09-28
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,889 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,085 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$196/yr (+$16/mo · 10.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,571
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,889
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,166
• − Management: −$1,166
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$1,814
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$435
• After-tax cash flow: $887/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Odessa-Montour Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621630
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,720
• Composite: 42.81/100
• National rank: #3142
• State rank: #383 of 590 in NY

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #602
• US rank: #10906

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 723

Population outlook (Schuyler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,999 people
• By 2030: 17,676 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 16,586 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 15,322 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 13,004 · -27.8%
• By 2100: 10,752 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 3% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Schuyler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 39.5% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.1pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+17.6 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+7.9 2008: R+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.80%
• Current HPI: 271.4923
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+382.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $135,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $139,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-09-01 Price Changed $145,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-06-30 Listed $160,000 UNYREIS
• 2009-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,889 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.