20266 N 104th Ave · Peoria, AZ 85382

$299,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,333 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2002 6,480 sqft lot $224/sqft · 19% below area Est $367k · 19% under $120/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*NOT A SHORT SALE OR LENDER OWNED* Just a Wonderful, move in ready home! Decorator paint just completed June 2010 in great room and halls. This home boasts open floor plan and split bedrooms, vaulted ceilings and attractive tile through-out home bedrooms feature laminate wood floors. Kitchen offers plenty of honey oak cabinets, some w/pull outs, white appliances and pantry. Also a Center Island and a Breakfast Bar for your enjoyment. Master features walk-in closet, dual sinks, and large walk-in shower. Relaxing and colorful backyard has extended covered patio, easy to maintain landscaping includes 7 fruit trees.

Key facts

• Private rear yard
• Corner lot
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• PRIVATE REAR YARD
• SOLID-SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• EXPANDED COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee for grounds maintenance; Community amenities include pool, pickleball, lake, heated community spa, tennis courts, biking/walking paths and fitness center; Association rules prohibit visible trucks, trailers, RVs, and boats

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; 2-car garage with direct access and garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Block fencing; East/West exposure; Corner lot; Desert front and back landscaping; Gravel/stone front and back

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Water purifier; Non-laminate counters; Kitchen island; Pantry; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Double vanity in bathrooms; Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; Kitchen island; Pantry; Dual-pane windows; Solar panels
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-248 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AZ, #3,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, health & safety F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 281 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $299k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,083 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.55%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $367,139
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -18.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20437 N 105th Ave	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,295 (-3%)	0mo	$325,000	$251	85
20310 N 106th Ave	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,295 (-3%)	3mo	$435,000	$336	80
20337 N 106th Ln	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,295 (-3%)	2mo	$400,000	$309	75
10728 W Irma Ln	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,309 (-2%)	2mo	$362,000	$277	69
20419 N 105th Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,475 (+11%)	2mo	$270,000	$183	67
20443 N 105th Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,475 (+11%)	1mo	$340,000	$231	66
10416 W Runion Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,197 (-10%)	2mo	$335,000	$280	64
10823 W Irma Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,309 (-2%)	1mo	$435,000	$332	63
20346 N 109th Ln	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,405 (+5%)	3mo	$360,000	$256	61
19545 N 108th Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,405 (+5%)	1mo	$355,000	$253	53
10858 W Irma Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (-7%)	2mo	$346,725	$280	51
20708 N 108th Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,475 (+11%)	0mo	$432,500	$293	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-70,535
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-106,090
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85382

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,131 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,424/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,445

Max offer price $255,208

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-79	-5% $-163	+0% $-248	+5% $-333	+10% $-417
Rent	-10% $-416	-5% $-332	+0% $-248	+5% $-164	+10% $-80
Rate	-1.0pp $-97	-0.5pp $-172	base $-248	+0.5pp $-325	+1.0pp $-404

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20341 N 105th Ave Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1299	$3,000	$2.31	44d	1	0.08mi
10310 W Beardsley Rd Peoria, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1098	$1,925	$1.75	3d	7	0.14mi
10509 W Runion Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1295	$4,000	$3.09	44d	1	0.20mi
20702 N Lake Pleasant Rd Peoria, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1051	$1,440	$1.37	2d	3	0.39mi
10359 W Ross Ave Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	44d	1	0.39mi
10134 W Mohawk Ln Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,299	$1.57	44d	1	0.42mi
10134 W Mohawk Ln Apt 1017 Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1149	$1,400	$1.22	15d	1	0.44mi
10763 W Runion Dr Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1776	$2,000	$1.13	44d	1	0.45mi
10134 W Mohawk Ln Peoria, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,400	$1.41	13d	5	0.45mi
9833 W Yukon Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1667	$2,100	$1.26	4d	1	0.75mi
9830 W Runion Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,985	$1.55	2d	1	0.76mi
19702 N 98th Ln Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1417	$2,300	$1.62	25d	1	0.77mi
9825 W Runion Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1667	$2,400	$1.44	21d	1	0.77mi
19910 N 110th Ln Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,000	$2.13	44d	1	0.87mi
11065 W Marco Polo Rd Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,795	$1.07	25d	1	0.87mi
9723 W Mohawk Ln Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1649	$1,999	$1.21	44d	1	0.88mi
19609 N 98th Dr Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1653	$2,895	$1.75	44d	1	0.89mi
9668 W Irma Ln Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,895	$1.35	44d	1	0.96mi
21926 N 103rd Ln #366 Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.5	1375	$3,000	$2.18	44d	1	1.01mi
10550 W Via del Sol Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1231	$1,945	$1.58	44d	1	1.02mi
21925 N 103rd Ln #433 Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.5	1262	$3,000	$2.38	44d	1	1.02mi
10268 W Sands Dr #491 Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.5	1262	$1,639	$1.30	44d	1	1.13mi
10268 W Sands Dr #491 Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.5	1262	$1,639	$1.30	45d	1	1.13mi
10324 W Sands Dr #475 Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.5	1375	$1,895	$1.38	44d	1	1.14mi
9803 W Kimberly Way Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1655	$1,800	$1.09	25d	1	1.17mi
10509 W Angels Ln Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1612	$2,025	$1.26	6d	1	1.18mi
20456 N 94th Ln Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1436	$2,200	$1.53	6d	1	1.19mi
18942 N 96th Ln Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1520	$1,945	$1.28	6d	1	1.23mi
9619 W Taro Ln Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1524	$1,750	$1.15	44d	1	1.32mi
21234 N 94th Ln Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1867	$2,420	$1.30	44d	1	1.32mi
21234 N 94th Ln Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1867	$2,205	$1.18	15d	1	1.32mi
22331 N 107th Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,643	$1.46	3d	1	1.33mi
9477 W Frank Ave Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,100	$1.68	44d	1	1.35mi
9343 W Escuda Dr Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1858	$3,500	$1.88	25d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $299,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-05-15
   listed $299,000 Active 1423-char remark
3. 2010-08-13
   soldstatus $130,000 Closed 620-char remark

   Show marketing remark (620 chars)

   *NOT A SHORT SALE OR LENDER OWNED* Just a Wonderful, move in ready home! Decorator paint just completed June 2010 in great room and halls. This home boasts open floor plan and split bedrooms, vaulted ceilings and attractive tile through-out home bedrooms feature laminate wood floors. Kitchen offers plenty of honey oak cabinets, some w/pull outs, white appliances and pantry. Also a Center Island and a Breakfast Bar for your enjoyment. Master features walk-in closet, dual sinks, and large walk-in shower. Relaxing and colorful backyard has extended covered patio, easy to maintain landscaping includes 7 fruit trees.

4. 2010-08-09
   soldstatus $130,000
5. 2010-07-02
   status Pending 620-char remark

   Show marketing remark (620 chars)

   *NOT A SHORT SALE OR LENDER OWNED* Just a Wonderful, move in ready home! Decorator paint just completed June 2010 in great room and halls. This home boasts open floor plan and split bedrooms, vaulted ceilings and attractive tile through-out home bedrooms feature laminate wood floors. Kitchen offers plenty of honey oak cabinets, some w/pull outs, white appliances and pantry. Also a Center Island and a Breakfast Bar for your enjoyment. Master features walk-in closet, dual sinks, and large walk-in shower. Relaxing and colorful backyard has extended covered patio, easy to maintain landscaping includes 7 fruit trees.

6. 2010-06-04
   listed $138,900 Active 620-char remark

   Show marketing remark (620 chars)

   *NOT A SHORT SALE OR LENDER OWNED* Just a Wonderful, move in ready home! Decorator paint just completed June 2010 in great room and halls. This home boasts open floor plan and split bedrooms, vaulted ceilings and attractive tile through-out home bedrooms feature laminate wood floors. Kitchen offers plenty of honey oak cabinets, some w/pull outs, white appliances and pantry. Also a Center Island and a Breakfast Bar for your enjoyment. Master features walk-in closet, dual sinks, and large walk-in shower. Relaxing and colorful backyard has extended covered patio, easy to maintain landscaping includes 7 fruit trees.

7. 2010-04-22
   historical
8. 2010-03-26
   price $156,900
9. 2010-03-12
   listed $163,500 Active
10. 2009-03-09
    historical
11. 2008-10-06
    listed $169,900
12. 2004-09-09
    soldstatus $142,000
13. 2004-09-07
    soldstatus $142,000
14. 2004-06-30
    historical
15. 2004-05-16
    listed $146,500
16. 2004-04-26
    historical
17. 2004-01-26
    listed $149,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,424 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,973 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$549/yr (+$46/mo · 38.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$1,424
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,046
• − Management: −$2,046
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$8,327
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,999
• After-tax cash flow: $-976/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peoria Unified School District (4237)
• NCES district ID: 0406250
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,171
• Composite: 34.62/100
• National rank: #5152
• State rank: #64 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Peoria

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #3603

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A Cost of living C- Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Peoria, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 206,687
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,729
• Household income: $91,525
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1350.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 12% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 7% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.44%
• Current HPI: 280.5805
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+99.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $299,000 ARMLS
• 2010-08-13 Sold (MLS) $130,000 ARMLS
• 2010-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2010-07-02 Pending — ARMLS
• 2010-06-04 Listed $138,900 ARMLS
• 2010-04-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2010-03-26 Price Changed $156,900 ARMLS
• 2010-03-12 Listed $163,500 ARMLS
• 2009-03-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-10-06 Listed $169,900 ARMLS
• 2004-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $142,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-07 Sold (MLS) $142,000 ARMLS
• 2004-06-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-05-16 Listed $146,500 ARMLS
• 2004-04-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-01-26 Listed $149,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,424 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.