VL Union Road Rd · West Seneca, NY 14224

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,374 sqft · Land · 376 Days on market

Built 1827 10,000 sqft lot $36/sqft · 34% below area Est $76k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to secure a site to build your dream home in a coveted location on Union Road just two blocks South of Southgate Plaza. Subject to being subdivided from current larger parcel. Reasonably price due to proximity to the sloping land in the rear of the lot and to the North of the lot. Real Estate Taxes to be determined after subdividing.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1827
• Listed 376 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 35.7% vs local median 3.7% in West Seneca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#130 in NY, #2,089 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• West Seneca Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #336 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 376 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1827 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 376 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1827 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 105.13%
• DSCR: 5.68
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $76,000
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -34.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.75×
• Total profit: $66,401
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.02×
• Total profit: $153,913
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14224

• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,986 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $1,169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $507

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1130 Orchard Park Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1517	$2,015	$1.33	43d	1	0.76mi
1130 Orchard Park Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	1517	$2,210	$1.46	23d	1	0.84mi
194 Boncroft Dr Unit Upper West Seneca, NY	2.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	43d	1	1.25mi
940 Reserve Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1144	$2,550	$2.23	1d	1	1.42mi
3266 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$2,015	$2.44	1d	1	1.43mi
510 Center Rd West Seneca, NY	2.0	1.0–1.5	1054	$1,515	$1.44	1d	2	1.47mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 376 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 375 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 374 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 373 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 371 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,900 Active 368 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 367 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 366 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,900 Active 365 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 361 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 360 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 359 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 358 DOM
14. 2025-06-07
    listed $49,900 Active 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Great opportunity to secure a site to build your dream home in a coveted location on Union Road just two blocks South of Southgate Plaza. Subject to being subdivided from current larger parcel. Reasonably price due to proximity to the sloping land in the rear of the lot and to the North of the lot. Real Estate Taxes to be determined after subdividing.

15. 2020-01-24
    historical
16. 2017-07-22
    listed $449,000 Active
17. 2017-07-21
    historical
18. 2017-01-18
    listed $449,000 Active
19. 2017-01-18
    historical
20. 2015-05-13
    listed $449,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,831
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$916
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,907
• − Management: −$1,907
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $14,107
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,386
• After-tax cash flow: $10,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Seneca Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630780
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $54,231
• Composite: 44.83/100
• National rank: #2735
• State rank: #336 of 590 in NY

Livability — West Seneca

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #2089

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Seneca, NY
• City population: 41,101
• Population (ZIP): 41,101

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 22% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.03%
• Current HPI: 303.7523
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-88.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-07 Listed $49,900 WNYREIS
• 2020-01-24 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-07-22 Listed $449,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-07-21 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-01-18 Listed $449,000 WNYREIS
• 2017-01-18 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2015-05-13 Listed $449,000 WNYREIS