409 N Cypress St · Town of Pecos, TX 79772

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1940 6,403 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bath home situated on a 0.147-acre lot with great potential. Property needs TLC but offers an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value. Functional layout with room to reimagine and update to your style. Spacious lot provides possibilities for outdoor improvements. Located in an established area, this property is ideal for those ready to bring their vision to life. Reach out for a private tour.

Key facts

• Established area
• Spacious lot
• Functional layout

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LOT
• OUTDOOR IMPROVEMENTS
• ESTABLISHED AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $678 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pecos-Barstow-Toyah ISD (town): math 28% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #652 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 22 units permitted in Reeves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $925 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Reeves County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.17%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $36,418
• Equity at exit: $20,155

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.94×
• Total profit: $93,838
• Equity at exit: $20,857

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79772

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,538 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $674/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $678

Break-even live

Break-even rent $680

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-04-08
    listed $85,000 Active 453-char remark

    Show marketing remark (453 chars)

    Cozy 2-bedroom, 1-bath home situated on a 0.147-acre lot with great potential. Property needs TLC but offers an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value. Functional layout with room to reimagine and update to your style. Spacious lot provides possibilities for outdoor improvements. Located in an established area, this property is ideal for those ready to bring their vision to life. Reach out for a private tour.

17. 2021-06-14
    soldstatus
18. 2016-11-17
    soldstatus
19. 2002-09-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $674 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$882/yr (+$73/mo · 130.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$674
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,477
• − Management: −$1,477
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $7,171
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,721
• After-tax cash flow: $6,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pecos-Barstow-Toyah ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834550
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,982
• Composite: 24.61/100
• National rank: #7632
• State rank: #652 of 826 in TX

Livability — Town of Pecos

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Town of Pecos, TX
• City population: 12,547
• Population (ZIP): 12,547

Population outlook (Reeves County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,069 people
• By 2030: 18,407 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 21,342 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 24,701 · +44.7%
• By 2075: 32,688 · +91.5%
• By 2100: 36,117 · +111.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 22% White 12% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 78%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 38% English-only · Spanish 62%

Political lean MEDSL · Reeves

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.9) · D 31.1% · R 68.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 5.2pp · 2024: -36.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.9 2020: R+23.3 2016: D+7.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.09%
• Current HPI: 147.9377
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $85,000 ODMLS
• 2021-06-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-11-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $674 · +15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.