5905 Churchill Ct #34 · Juneau, AK 99801

$215,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · Manufactured · 92 Days on market

Built 1970 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully remodeled Miramontes home that feels brand new. Taken to the studs with all-new insulation, drywall, paint, plumbing, major electrical, custom lighting, vinyl plank flooring, Swanstone counters, DeWills cabinetry, and mostly new windows. Large covered porch and one of Churchill's best lots. Short-notice showings welcome!

Key facts

• New drywall
• New plumbing
• New paint

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• NEW INSULATION
• NEW DRYWALL
• NEW PAINT
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW ELECTRICAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No carport
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Mobile home; Model: GREL HS; Built in 1970; Living area approximately 1,150
• Construction: Metal roof; Built in 1970
• Exterior features: Located in city limits; Corner lot; Metal roof; Gravel road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 4 total bathrooms (2 full, 2 half)
• Interior features: Microwave; Smoke detector(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $196k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 2.6% in Juneau — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#3 in AK, #703 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Juneau Borough School District (town): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #9 of 21 in AK (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harborview Elementary (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #116 of 156 statewide, top 77%, 301 students, 34% FRL); Juneau-Douglas High School: Yadaa.At Kalt (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #14 of 61 statewide, top 25%, 567 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 114 units permitted in Juneau City and Borough in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Juneau County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $195,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.35%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-11,335
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $20,494
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99801

• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,347 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,881

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $517	-5% $443	+0% $368	+5% $294	+10% $220
Rent	-10% $183	-5% $276	+0% $368	+5% $461	+10% $554
Rate	-1.0pp $477	-0.5pp $423	base $368	+0.5pp $313	+1.0pp $256

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $215,000 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $215,000 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-03-19
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,253
• − Management: −$2,253
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable income: $1,062
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$255
• After-tax cash flow: $4,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This remodeled manufactured home is in excellent condition with new finishes throughout, making it move-in ready for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Juneau Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200210
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,032
• Composite: 35.76/100
• National rank: #4845
• State rank: #9 of 21 in AK

Livability — Juneau

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #703

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Juneau, AK
• County: Juneau Borough · 29,588 people
• City population: 29,588
• Metro: Juneau, AK
• Population (ZIP): 29,588
• Household income: $102,217
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 660.0

Population outlook (Juneau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,707 people
• By 2030: 38,658 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 42,270 · +15.2%
• By 2050: 46,086 · +25.6%
• By 2075: 58,476 · +59.3%
• By 2100: 69,228 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 17% Native American 8% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 3% Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Juneau

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.89%
• Current HPI: 170.9025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Juneau, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Listed $225,000 AKMLS