CARSON Plan · Boyd, TX 76023

$268,990

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,818 sqft · SingleFamily · 221 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Carson is a spacious single-story home offering approximately 1818 sq. ft. of living space with 5 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, thoughtfully designed to provide flexibility for families, guests, or home office needs. A covered front porch and welcoming foyer lead into an open-concept living area where the kitchen, dining space, and expansive family room come together to create a bright and functional gathering space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, ample cabinet storage, a pantry, and a centrally located sink overlooking the main living areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite is positioned toward the rear of the home and includes a walk-in closet and an ensuite bathroom. Four secondary bedrooms are arranged along separate hallways with convenient access to a full bathroom, offering privacy and versatility for a variety of lifestyles. A dedicated laundry room with nearby storage and direct access to the two-car garage adds everyday convenience. With its generous room count, open layout, and efficient use of space, the Carson delivers comfortable single-story living with room to grow. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purposes only. Elevations, exterior/ interior colors, options, available upgrades, and standard features will vary in each community and may change without notice.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 221 days

🏗️ New construction. The $268,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $299,024.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-268 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (15.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (15.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#185 in TX, #4,775 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Boyd ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #462 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Boyd El (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 478 students, 57% FRL); Boyd Middle (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 202 students, 48% FRL); Boyd H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 386 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 72d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 90% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 221 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,623 (15.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 221 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.84%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,024
• List price: $268,990
• Delta: -10.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Pinehurst Dr	0.25mi	5/2.0	1,818 (0%)	3mo	$267,990	$147	86
173 Pinehurst Dr	0.35mi	5/2.0	1,818 (0%)	1mo	$269,990	$149	82
120 Birch Forest Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,779 (-2%)	4mo	$207,320	$117	82
250 Birch Forest Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,818 (0%)	4mo	$269,990	$149	82
192 Greennhill Trl	0.43mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,838 (+1%)	4mo	$316,990	$172	70
125 Pinehurst Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (-9%)	1mo	$254,990	$153	68
258 Birch Forest Ln	0.23mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (-9%)	3mo	$264,990	$160	67
105 Pinehurst Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (-9%)	3mo	$264,990	$160	67
274 Birch Forest Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (-9%)	3mo	$269,190	$162	66
168 Mojave Rd	0.28mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,087 (+15%)	1mo	$309,990	$149	55
160 Lilywood Ln	0.28mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,087 (+15%)	3mo	$304,990	$146	52
192 Mojave Rd	0.32mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,087 (+15%)	5mo	$314,110	$151	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-65,506
• Equity at exit: $44,585

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-78,902
• Equity at exit: $25,854

Cash invested: $83,727 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 25 active · 22 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.8 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $279,990 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 221 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76023

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,276 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $-268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $260,207

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-62	-5% $-165	+0% $-268	+5% $-372	+10% $-475
Rent	-10% $-448	-5% $-358	+0% $-268	+5% $-178	+10% $-88
Rate	-1.0pp $-118	-0.5pp $-192	base $-268	+0.5pp $-346	+1.0pp $-425

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,756
• Closing costs: $8,971
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 Greengate Dr Boyd, TX	4.0	2.5	2084	$2,495	$1.20	105d	1	0.10mi
121 Hollytree Ln Boyd, TX	4.0	2.0	1733	$1,995	$1.15	44d	1	0.13mi
113 Orchard Pines Pl Boyd, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,345	$1.28	49d	1	0.17mi
113 Orchard Pines Pl Boyd, TX	4.0	2.0	2252	$2,345	$1.04	51d	1	0.17mi
156 Birch St Boyd, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$2,300	$1.45	39d	1	0.21mi
156 Birch St Boyd, TX	4.0	2.0	1587	$2,150	$1.35	97d	1	0.21mi
175 Bay Meadows LN Boyd, TX	4.0	2.0	1602	$2,190	$1.37	74d	1	0.26mi
129 Blossom Trl Boyd, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,350	$1.28	72d	1	0.30mi
200 Lantana Trl Boyd, TX	4.0	2.0	1838	$2,325	$1.26	0d	1	0.31mi
209 Bay Meadows Ln Boyd, TX	4.0	2.5	2079	$2,195	$1.06	88d	1	0.40mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $268,990 Active 221 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $268,990 Active 220 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $268,990 Active 219 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $268,990 Active 218 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $268,990 Active 217 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $268,990 Active 216 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $268,990 Active 215 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $268,990 Active 214 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $268,990 Active 213 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $268,990 Active 212 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $268,990 Active 211 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $268,990 Active 210 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $268,990 Active 209 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $268,990 Active 203 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $268,990 Active 202 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $268,990 Active 200 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $268,990 Active 198 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $268,990 Active 196 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $268,990 Active 195 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $268,990 Active 194 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $268,990 Active 192 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $268,990 Active 191 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $268,990 Active 190 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $268,990 Active 189 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $268,990 Active 188 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $268,990 Active 187 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $268,990 Active 186 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $268,990 Active 185 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $268,990 Active 184 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $268,990 Active 183 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $268,990 Active 182 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $268,990 Active 181 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $268,990 Active 180 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $268,990 Active 179 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $268,990 Active 178 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $268,990 Active 177 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $268,990 Active 176 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $268,990 Active 175 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $268,990 Active 173 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $268,990 Active 172 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $268,990 Active 171 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $268,990 Active 170 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $268,990 Active 167 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $268,990 Active 165 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $268,990 Active 164 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $268,990 Active 162 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $268,990 Active 160 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $268,990 Active 159 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $268,990 Active 158 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $268,990 Active 157 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,750
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,185
• − Management: −$2,185
• − Depreciation: −$8,699
• Taxable loss: −$8,485
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,036
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Carson is a well-maintained single-story home with good condition and potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Boyd El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Boyd Middle F TX #660/1,662 Nat'l #6,151/14,009 High Boyd H S F TX #730/1,632 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boyd ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811010
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,462
• Composite: 32.14/100
• National rank: #5796
• State rank: #462 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Boyd

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #4775

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wise · 71,620 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,192
• Household income: $80,927
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.08%
• Current HPI: 268.5024
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Listed $265,990 Zillow