900 Anvil Rd · Southern Gateway, VA 22405

$270,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · Townhouse public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1972 3,393 sqft lot Est $280k · at est. $52/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEWER HEAT PUMP * * NEWER KITCHEN CABINETS AND COUNTER TOPS * * TILE KITCHEN FLOORS * * W/ W CARPETING * * 3 BEDROOMS 1.5 BATHS * * FENCED REAR YARD

Key facts

• End-unit townhouse
• $52 HOA
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• END-UNIT TOWNHOUSE
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR I-95
• TWO ASSIGNED PARKING SPACES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee $60 monthly; HOA covers common area maintenance and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking in lot (2 assigned spaces, numbers include 900); Total of 2 parking spaces in parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service for heating, cooling, and hot water
• Home design: End-of-row townhouse; Located outside city limits; Building name: OLDE FORGE; Ownership: Fee simple
• Construction: Brick front; Slab foundation; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Rear yard and side yard(s); Fully wood fenced yard; Shed on property; Above-grade and below-grade structures listed

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bath on the upper level; One half bath on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: No basement; Living area per assessor
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit; Laundry available on main and lower floors

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-319/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.4% in Southern Gateway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#136 in VA, #4,350 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Stafford County Public School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 131 in VA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rocky Run Elementary (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 850 students, 77% FRL); Andrew G. Wright Middle (math 43% / reading 71%, grade B, #178 of 342 statewide, top 53%, 868 students, 35% FRL); North Stafford High (math 64% / reading 82%, grade B+, #129 of 319 statewide, top 41%, 1,925 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 22% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 174 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 361 units permitted in Stafford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stafford County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask is 200% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $270k implies a 238% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,284 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
902 Anvil Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,200 (0%)	6mo	$285,000	$238	95
910 Anvil Rd	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,200 (0%)	1mo	$230,000	$192	94
903 Bellows Ave	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,200 (0%)	11mo	$279,500	$233	86
931 Anvil Rd	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,200 (0%)	13mo	$270,000	$225	85
926 Anvil Rd	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,200 (0%)	15mo	$275,000	$229	85
817 Anvil Rd	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,160 (-3%)	16mo	$268,000	$231	78
107 Bancroft Dr #96	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,280 (+7%)	11mo	$399,900	$312	70
623 Olde Forge Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+14%)	6mo	$301,000	$221	61
517 View Point Way	0.53mi	3/3.0	1,280 (+7%)	1mo	$395,000	$309	57
826 Sledgehammer Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,356 (+13%)	15mo	$302,000	$223	57
515 Rolling Valley Dr	0.44mi	3/3.5	1,152 (-4%)	10mo	$392,000	$340	56
522 River Crest Way	0.48mi	3/3.0	1,280 (+7%)	10mo	$425,000	$332	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-44,395
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-36,482
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22405

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,213 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,332/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,247

Max offer price $265,301

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
908 Anvil Rd Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,550	$1.29	5d	1	0.01mi
929 Anvil Rd Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,900	$1.58	43d	1	0.06mi
123 Streamview Dr Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1280	$2,300	$1.80	43d	1	0.21mi
57 Denison St Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1476	$3,500	$2.37	2d	1	1.26mi
319 Brock Sq Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,749	$1.84	2d	1	1.31mi
1300 Forest Vlg Fredericksburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0	916	$1,450	$1.58	1d	1	1.32mi
330 Brock Sq Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1141	$2,050	$1.80	1d	1	1.34mi
3107 Linden Ave Fredericksburg, VA	4.0	1.0	1152	$2,400	$2.08	1d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $270,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 630-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $270,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,332 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,332 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,554
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$2,332
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,124
• − Management: −$2,124
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$4,979
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,195
• After-tax cash flow: $876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stafford County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103660
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $96,389
• Composite: 54.61/100
• National rank: #1336
• State rank: #42 of 131 in VA

Livability — Southern Gateway

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #136
• US rank: #4350

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Stafford County · 161,536 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 36,890
• Household income: $128,259
• Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 257.0

Population outlook (Stafford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,882 people
• By 2030: 183,934 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 211,031 · +24.2%
• By 2050: 235,391 · +38.6%
• By 2075: 297,080 · +74.9%
• By 2100: 334,680 · +97.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 14% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stafford

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.6% · R 48.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+3.3 2016: R+9.1 2012: R+8.8 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.28%
• Current HPI: 287.0876
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.48%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+583.5% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Coming Soon $270,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-11-18 Sold (MLS) $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-11-18 Sold (MLS) $80,000 MRIS
• 2013-10-16 Pending — MRIS
• 2013-10-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-10-08 Listed $90,000 MRIS
• 2013-10-08 Listed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-02-26 Sold (MLS) $53,000 MRIS
• 2010-02-26 Sold (MLS) $53,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-11-10 Pending — MRIS
• 2009-11-09 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-11-07 Price Changed $55,000 MRIS
• 2009-10-23 Relisted — MRIS
• 2009-10-23 Price Changed $70,000 MRIS
• 2009-10-06 Contingent — MRIS
• 2009-09-23 Listed $60,000 MRIS
• 2009-09-22 Listed $55,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $182,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-30 Sold (MLS) $182,000 MRIS
• 2005-11-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-09-07 Listed $187,000 MRIS
• 2003-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2003-07-24 Sold (MLS) $63,000 MRIS
• 2003-07-23 Listed $63,000 MRIS
• 2003-07-23 Delisted — MRIS
• 1998-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 1995-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $39,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,332 · +33.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.