659 Cottrell Ave · Holly Springs, MS 38635

$155,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1970 10,018 sqft lot Est $204k · 24% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming, fully updated 3 -Bedroom, 1.5-bathroom home with 1,390 square feet of move-in-ready living space. This beautifully refreshed property features a brand new roof, HVAC System, hot water heater and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, providing long-term peace of mind, durability, and modern appeal. The kitchen has been thoughtfully updated with new cabinets , sleek countertops, and a stainless steel refrigerator, creating a clean, functional space for everyday living and entertaining. The bathrooms have also been updated with new cabinetry and fixtures , offering a a cohesive , contemporary look throughout the home. Additional improvements include interior fresh paint, which enha

Key facts

• Updated cabinets
• New roofing
• New countertops

Tags

• NEW ROOFING
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• UPDATED CABINETS
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL REFRIGERATOR
• UPDATED CABINETRY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: See remarks for parking details
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family house; One story
• Construction: Brick construction; Brick/mortar foundation; Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Asphalt shingle roof; Level, open lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric range
• Bedrooms: Multiple bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (total 1.5)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bedroom located on the main level; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.4% in Holly Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#178 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Holly Springs School District (town): math 12% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #111 of 130 in MS (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 92% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 310 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-16 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Marshall County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.97%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,330
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27 Jepson St	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,414 (+2%)	3mo	$273,990	$194	66
605 Salem Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,437 (+3%)	13mo	$189,000	$132	60
679 Coleman Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,289 (-7%)	1mo	$189,000	$147	53
578 Robbindale Ln	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,215 (-13%)	11mo	$149,900	$123	50
656 Coleman Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	6mo	$210,000	$175	39
430 Salem Ave	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,282 (-8%)	19mo	$180,000	$140	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $6,787
• Equity at exit: $44,930

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $40,681
• Equity at exit: $53,946

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38635

• Home prices YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,426 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $831/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,198

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   price $155,000
3. 2026-01-05
   listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $831 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,225 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$394/yr (+$33/mo · 47.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$831
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,369
• − Management: −$1,369
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$425
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$102
• After-tax cash flow: $2,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holly Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 2801950
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,106
• Composite: 10.9/100
• National rank: #9752
• State rank: #111 of 130 in MS

Livability — Holly Springs

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #178
• US rank: #16836

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holly Springs, MS
• Population (ZIP): 15,312

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,542 people
• By 2030: 31,983 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 28,556 · -14.9%
• By 2050: 25,352 · -24.4%
• By 2075: 20,032 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 16,738 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 64% White 29% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% English 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.3) · D 46.0% · R 53.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.5pp toward R · 2008: 18.2pp · 2024: -7.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.3 2020: D+3.1 2016: D+9.7 2012: D+19.4 2008: D+18.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ -0.01%
• Current HPI: 245.68
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-11.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $155,000 MLSU
• 2026-01-05 Listed $175,000 MLSU

Property tax history

-5.8%/yr

Latest (2015): $831 · -5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.