17209 Red Top Ln · Wade, MS 39562

$153,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · Manufactured public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2020 1.01 ac lot Est $158k · at est. ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your Private 5-Bedroom Oasis on 1 Acre. Escape the hustle and bustle in this stunning home, perfectly positioned on a private, dead-end lot. With 5 spacious bedrooms and a smart split-floorplan, there is room for everyone to have their own space. Inside, you'll find a modern open kitchen, a dedicated laundry room with a built-in sink, and a luxurious primary suite. This home combines the ease of modern manufacturing with the freedom of country living. Visit www. HudHomeStore. gov for availability. Property is owned by the US Dept. of HUD. Case 281-490112. FHA Insurable W/ Escrow. ''IE, Subject to Appraisal''. Seller makes no representations or warranties as to property condition. HUD Homes

Key facts

• Modern open kitchen
• Private dead-end lot
• Built-in sink

Tags

• PRIVATE DEAD-END LOT
• MODERN OPEN KITCHEN
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• BUILT-IN SINK
• LUXURIOUS PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $153k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $396 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $153k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#256 in MS) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: East Central High School (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C-, #12 of 197 statewide, top 6%, 787 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,410 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.09%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,080
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17209 Red Top Ln	0.00mi	5/2.0	2,352 (-3%)	1mo	$153,000	$65	94

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $359
• Equity at exit: $22,813

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $32,531
• Equity at exit: $13,229

Cash invested: $42,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39562

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,663 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $626/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,162

Max offer price $153,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,250
• Closing costs: $4,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-28
   price $153,000
3. 2026-03-06
   status Active
4. 2026-02-13
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-09
   status Active
6. 2026-01-14
   status Pending
7. 2025-12-27
   listed $180,000 Active
8. 2025-12-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $626 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,209 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$583/yr (+$49/mo · 93.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,570
• − Property taxes: −$626
• − Insurance: −$765
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,597
• − Management: −$1,597
• − Depreciation: −$4,451
• Taxable income: $2,355
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$565
• After-tax cash flow: $4,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802160
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,569
• Composite: 43.57/100
• National rank: #2980
• State rank: #10 of 130 in MS

Livability — Wade

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #20454

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,142

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 6% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.87%
• Current HPI: 182.2784
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $153,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-06 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-02-13 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-02-09 Relisted — MLSU
• 2026-01-14 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-12-27 Listed $180,000 MLSU
• 2025-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $626 · -15.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.