38211 N Sombrero Rd · Carefree, AZ 85377

$2,350,000

4 bd · 6.0 ba · 5,334 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2005 4.36 ac lot Est $4038k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

PANORAMIC VIEWS on 4.6 AC in Carefree! IMPRESSIVE MULTI GENERATIONAL HOME! TWO SEPARATE LIVING AREAS/MASTER SUITES! 4 Bd total (2 Master Suites) /PLUS separate OFFICE/4.5 Bath, 4CG. MAIN LEVEL is Primary Suite/full laundry/1 BR-ensuite & office PLUS-Greatroom Flr plan; Soaring ceilings; cofferred ceilings; 3 Gas FP(in LR/FR/PRIMARY)-Lg Formal Dining area; Wet bar; Eat in kitchen; kitchen bar. Travertine floors, Stainless viking appliances. Walk in pantry. Double ovens; Gas cooktop, Granite countertops, custom finishes throughout! DOWNSTAIRS has spacious LR (no kitchen) 2nd Primary Suite/1 BR -ensuite bath another Laundry room/Walk in Wine Room (not hooked up) Flagstone patios front

Key facts

• 4.36 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size noted from assessor; Building area reported by builder
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 4; 4-car garage; Garage door opener; Circular driveway; Separate storage area
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: City water; Septic (connected); Power available (standard)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership; Complete spec home; Desert, panoramic and mountain views
• Construction: Built with stucco and wood frame, painted exterior; Tile and foam roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Balcony; Sprinklers in front and rear; Desert front and back; Horses allowed; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Pantry; Granite counters; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 6 bedrooms possible
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans; Multi-zone HVAC
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Central vacuum; Wet bar; Kitchen island; Pantry; Full bath in master bedroom; Separate shower and tub; Tub with jets; Dual-pane windows; Multi-zone temperature control; Fireplaces in family room, living room and master bedroom; exterior fireplace and fire pit (gas)
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hook-ups only; Central vacuum

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/6.0-bath single-family listed at $2.35M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.00M (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.00M (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.0% in Carefree — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Black Mountain Elementary School (math 66% / reading 63%, grade B, #104 of 1,109 statewide, top 10%, 495 students, 8% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $160k of equity ($16k loan paydown + $144k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $658k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$257k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($2.28M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; list at $2.35M implies a 944% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,000,000 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.76%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $4,037,838
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8320 E Concho Ln	0.37mi	4/5.5	4,852 (-9%)	4mo	$2,212,500	$456	62
8418 E Dog Leg Dr	0.44mi	5/4.5 (+1)	5,028 (-6%)	7mo	$1,575,000	$313	53
37200 N Cave Creek Rd #1002	0.74mi	4/4.5	4,873 (-9%)	3mo	$4,275,000	$877	42
37200 N Cave Creek Rd #1015	0.74mi	4/4.5	4,874 (-9%)	23mo	$3,895,386	$799	26
37200 N Cave Creek Rd #1009	0.74mi	3/3.5 (-1)	4,556 (-15%)	5mo	$3,450,000	$757	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $826,778
• Equity at exit: $1,496,813

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $2,321,971
• Equity at exit: $2,731,393

Cash invested: $658,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85377

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,324
• Tax from tax record: −$438 /mo · $5,251/yr
• Insurance: −$979
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $2,060

Break-even live

Break-even rent $17,393

Max offer price $2,350,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,390	-5% $2,725	+0% $2,060	+5% $1,394	+10% $729
Rent	-10% $480	-5% $1,270	+0% $2,060	+5% $2,850	+10% $3,640
Rate	-1.0pp $3,243	-0.5pp $2,657	base $2,060	+0.5pp $1,451	+1.0pp $831

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $587,500
• Closing costs: $70,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9361 E Sundance Trl Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	5.5	5495	$20,000	$3.64	44d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,350,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,350,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,350,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,350,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,350,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,350,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,350,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,350,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,350,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,350,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,350,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,350,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,350,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,350,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    listed $2,350,000 Active
16. 2023-01-04
    historical
17. 2022-09-12
    price $2,300,000
18. 2022-07-13
    listed $2,500,000 Active
19. 2007-05-31
    historical
20. 2006-11-24
    listed $2,345,000
21. 2006-03-31
    historical
22. 2005-02-09
    listed $2,485,000
23. 2002-08-15
    soldstatus $225,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,251 · $438/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,510 · $1,292/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,259/yr (+$855/mo · 195.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $240,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$131,637
• − Property taxes: −$5,251
• − Insurance: −$11,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,200
• − Management: −$19,200
• − Depreciation: −$68,364
• Taxable loss: −$15,401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,696
• After-tax cash flow: $28,412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Carefree

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #9958

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carefree, AZ
• City population: 3,452
• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 332.8138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+944.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $2,350,000 ARMLS
• 2023-01-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-09-12 Price Changed $2,300,000 ARMLS
• 2022-07-13 Listed $2,500,000 ARMLS
• 2007-05-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-11-24 Listed $2,345,000 ARMLS
• 2006-03-31 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-02-09 Listed $2,485,000 ARMLS
• 2002-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,251 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.