Is 2302 Red Bird Trce in Lockhart, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 5.3% cap rate and $-238/mo modeled cash flow at a $289,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2302 Red Bird Trce?

The modeled cap rate is 5.3% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,299/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 42.67

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +8.8/30.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Livability +3.4/5.0
1% rule +2.9/10.0
Schools +2.9/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
DSCR +2.4/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$289,990

2302 Red Bird Trce · Lockhart, TX 78644

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,215 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,052 sqft lot 1-car garage $131/sqft · 25% below area Est $386k · 25% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

AUGUST ESTIMATED COMPLETION DATE. The Graham is one of our two-story floorplans available at Lantana in Lockhart, Texas. This gorgeous new home has 5 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a gameroom and a 2-car garage across 2,215 square feet of modern living space. Our homes in Lantana feature front masonry exteriors. As you enter the home from the front porch, you'll find a foyer that leads you to the heart of the house, the living area. The open concept design of kitchen, dining and family room allow for easy entertaining and everyday living.

Key facts

L shaped kitchen
Two story floorplans
Open concept design

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (11.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (20.7% below list).
Recommended offer: $230k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.1% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 580 students, 72% FRL); Lockhart J H (math 22% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,433 students, 74% FRL); Lockhart H S (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,968 students, 69% FRL).
Market conditions: 523 active listings in the ZIP; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,871 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.79% ✗
Cap rate: 5.31%
Cash-on-cash: -3.52%
DSCR: 0.84
GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $386,257
List price: $289,990
Delta: -24.92%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 13 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
465 Elkins Prairie Dr	2.20mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,314 (+4%)	2mo	$389,990	$169	49
297 Foxfire Cv	2.19mi	3/2.0 (-2)	2,251 (+2%)	2mo	$457,900	$203	49
470 Elkins Prairie Dr	2.18mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,087 (-6%)	3mo	$375,990	$180	46
3915 Melody Rd	2.20mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,410 (+9%)	0mo	$414,900	$172	43
412 Elkins Prairie Dr	2.14mi	3/2.0 (-2)	2,087 (-6%)	2mo	$369,990	$177	42
421 Kolbo Crossing Cv	2.22mi	5/3.0	2,594 (+17%)	0mo	$399,990	$154	38
241 Hodges St	2.24mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,473 (+12%)	1mo	$329,990	$133	37
484 Kolbo Crossing Cv	2.23mi	5/3.0	2,594 (+17%)	3mo	$419,990	$162	35
3923 Melody Rd	2.22mi	3/2.0 (-2)	1,984 (-10%)	3mo	$382,900	$193	33
3916 Melody Rd	2.11mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,593 (+17%)	2mo	$424,900	$164	32
307 Foxfire Cv	2.17mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,561 (+16%)	2mo	$434,900	$170	32
315 Melody Rd	2.15mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,796 (+26%)	2mo	$538,900	$193	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -22.2%
Equity multiple: 0.24×
Total profit: $-62,088
Equity at exit: $43,238

10-year hold

IRR: -16.1%
Equity multiple: 0.10×
Total profit: $-73,324
Equity at exit: $25,073

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 2 active
Median asking: $309,990 ($152/sqft)
Median days on market: 133 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +15.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78644

Home prices YoY: -29.4%
Active inventory: 523
Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,299 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,350/yr
Insurance: −$121
HOA: −$50
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
Net cashflow: $-238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,600

Max offer price $255,541

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-38	-5% $-138	+0% $-238	+5% $-338	+10% $-438
Rent	-10% $-420	-5% $-329	+0% $-238	+5% $-147	+10% $-56
Rate	-1.0pp $-92	-0.5pp $-164	base $-238	+0.5pp $-313	+1.0pp $-390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $72,498
Closing costs: $8,700
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with $600 annual feeAssociation transfer fee $325

Exterior

Parking: Attached 1-car garage
Utilities: Additional water/sewer information available
Home design: New construction by D.R. HortonSlab foundationComposition roof
Construction: Built by D.R. HortonNew home
Exterior features: Brick exteriorPrivacy fenceDouble-pane windows

Interior

Kitchen: Gas cookingStove/RangeMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalIce maker connection
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bath (16 x 13)Bedroom 2 (11 x 11)Bedroom 3 (11 x 11)Bedroom 4 (11 x 11)Bedroom 5 (10 x 10)
Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroomPrimary bath with shower only and single vanity (12 x 11)
Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning
Interior features: Open floor plan with living/dining combinationIsland kitchenWalk-in pantryAttic partially floored with pull-down stairs and radiant barrier deckingSmoke alarmGas water heater
Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry roomWasher connectionDryer connection

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $289,990 Active 99 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $289,990 Active 97 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $289,990 Active 96 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $289,990 Active 95 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $289,990 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $289,990 Active 91 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $289,990 Active 90 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $289,990 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $289,990 Active 88 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $289,990 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $289,990 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $289,990 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $289,990 Active 82 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $289,990 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $289,990 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $289,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $289,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $289,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $289,990 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $289,990 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $289,990 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $289,990 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $289,990 Active 71 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $289,990 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $289,990 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $289,990 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $289,990 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $289,990 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $289,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $289,990 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $289,990 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $289,990 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $289,990 Active 59 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $289,990 Active 58 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $289,990 Active 57 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $289,990 Active 56 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $289,990 Active 54 DOM
2026-06-22

statusdays on market $289,990 Active 52 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $289,990 Price Change 51 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $289,990 Price Change 48 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $289,990 Price Change 47 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $289,990 Price Change 46 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $289,990 Price Change 45 DOM
2026-06-13

pricestatusdays on market $289,990 Price Change 43 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $299,990 Active 39 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $299,990 Active 38 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $299,990 Active 37 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $299,990 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $299,990 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $299,990 Active 32 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $27,585
− Mortgage interest: −$16,244
− Property taxes: −$4,350
− Insurance: −$1,450
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,207
− Management: −$2,207
− HOA: −$600
− Depreciation: −$8,436
Taxable loss: −$7,909

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,898
After-tax cash flow: $-959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This new home in Lockhart, Texas, is move-in ready with modern finishes and smart home technology. It offers a great investment opportunity with minimal maintenance and high resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Smart home system — Enhances home security and convenience. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
Both Smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and comfort. ↑
Both Smart lighting — Enhances home security and ambiance. ↑
Both Smart security system — Enhances home security and peace of mind. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 29/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bluebonnet El F TX #2,429/4,322 Nat'l #26,096/41,679 High Lockhart H S F TX #1,204/1,632 Nat'l #11,887/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Lockhart ISD
NCES district ID: 4827870
Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income: $48,868
Composite: 24.44/100
National rank: #7674
State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Lockhart

Score: 67/100
State rank: #535
US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Caldwell County · 46,557 people
City population: 22,348
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
Population (ZIP): 22,348
Household income: $74,709
Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 46,557 people
By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
Current HPI: 239.7906
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

2026-06-12 Price Changed $289,990 LERA
2026-05-08 Price Changed $299,990 LERA
2026-05-01 Listed $319,990 LERA

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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