149 Dexter St · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1925 2,560 sqft lot $136/sqft · 28% below area Est $255k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated 3-bedroom Colonial in the heart of Tonawanda! This home blends classic charm with modern updates, featuring hardwood floors, a bright formal living and dining area, and a fully updated kitchen and bath. Major improvements include newer roof, furnace, hot water tank, windows, doors, and updated electrical for peace of mind. Appliances not included. Enjoy the convenience of a shared driveway with maintenance handled, plus off-street parking in the rear. Located close to shopping, dining, and major thruways. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike!

Key facts

• Updated bath
• Newer furnace
• Newer roof

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATH
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER FURNACE
• NEWER HOT WATER TANK
• NEWER WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $173,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.92%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,464
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -27.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Nicholas Dr N	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,281 (-6%)	10mo	$250,000	$195	63
81 Winkler Dr	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,212 (-11%)	6mo	$257,500	$212	63
127 Bannard Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,263 (-7%)	9mo	$240,000	$190	61
58 Nicholas Dr N	0.36mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,434 (+5%)	14mo	$300,000	$209	58
320 Joseph Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,344 (-1%)	12mo	$251,000	$187	57
115 Nicholas Dr N	0.39mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,264 (-7%)	13mo	$235,000	$186	54
26 Nicholas Ct	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,316 (-3%)	13mo	$310,500	$236	50
102 Bonnett Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,390 (+2%)	22mo	$261,000	$188	44
23 Nicholas Ct	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,458 (+7%)	24mo	$282,000	$193	42
89 Bonnett Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+9%)	16mo	$225,000	$152	34
101 Bonnett Ave	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,530 (+12%)	14mo	$310,000	$203	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-9,168
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $41,717
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,857 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,486/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,588

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	11d	1	0.34mi
86 Scott St Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1584	$1,450	$0.92	1d	1	0.70mi
115 Klinger Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	3d	1	0.73mi
184 Sweeney St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,000	$1.73	1d	1	1.25mi
1835 Military Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,175	$2.04	17d	1	1.31mi
330 E Niagara St Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,900	$1.95	1d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $185,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $165,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-05-13
    price $182,000 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Updated 3-bedroom Colonial in the heart of Tonawanda! This home blends classic charm with modern updates, featuring hardwood floors, a bright formal living and dining area, and a fully updated kitchen and bath. Major improvements include newer roof, furnace, hot water tank, windows, doors, and updated electrical for peace of mind. Appliances not included. Enjoy the convenience of a shared driveway with maintenance handled, plus off-street parking in the rear. Located close to shopping, dining, and major thruways. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike!

13. 2026-05-04
    price $165,000 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Updated 3-bedroom Colonial in the heart of Tonawanda! This home blends classic charm with modern updates, featuring hardwood floors, a bright formal living and dining area, and a fully updated kitchen and bath. Major improvements include newer roof, furnace, hot water tank, windows, doors, and updated electrical for peace of mind. Appliances not included. Enjoy the convenience of a shared driveway with maintenance handled, plus off-street parking in the rear. Located close to shopping, dining, and major thruways. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike!

14. 2026-04-21
    price $185,000 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Updated 3-bedroom Colonial in the heart of Tonawanda! This home blends classic charm with modern updates, featuring hardwood floors, a bright formal living and dining area, and a fully updated kitchen and bath. Major improvements include newer roof, furnace, hot water tank, windows, doors, and updated electrical for peace of mind. Appliances not included. Enjoy the convenience of a shared driveway with maintenance handled, plus off-street parking in the rear. Located close to shopping, dining, and major thruways. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike!

15. 2026-04-15
    status Active 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Updated 3-bedroom Colonial in the heart of Tonawanda! This home blends classic charm with modern updates, featuring hardwood floors, a bright formal living and dining area, and a fully updated kitchen and bath. Major improvements include newer roof, furnace, hot water tank, windows, doors, and updated electrical for peace of mind. Appliances not included. Enjoy the convenience of a shared driveway with maintenance handled, plus off-street parking in the rear. Located close to shopping, dining, and major thruways. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike!

16. 2026-04-13
    status Pending 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Updated 3-bedroom Colonial in the heart of Tonawanda! This home blends classic charm with modern updates, featuring hardwood floors, a bright formal living and dining area, and a fully updated kitchen and bath. Major improvements include newer roof, furnace, hot water tank, windows, doors, and updated electrical for peace of mind. Appliances not included. Enjoy the convenience of a shared driveway with maintenance handled, plus off-street parking in the rear. Located close to shopping, dining, and major thruways. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike!

17. 2026-04-07
    price $189,000 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Updated 3-bedroom Colonial in the heart of Tonawanda! This home blends classic charm with modern updates, featuring hardwood floors, a bright formal living and dining area, and a fully updated kitchen and bath. Major improvements include newer roof, furnace, hot water tank, windows, doors, and updated electrical for peace of mind. Appliances not included. Enjoy the convenience of a shared driveway with maintenance handled, plus off-street parking in the rear. Located close to shopping, dining, and major thruways. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike!

18. 2026-04-01
    listed $199,000 Active 573-char remark

    Show marketing remark (573 chars)

    Updated 3-bedroom Colonial in the heart of Tonawanda! This home blends classic charm with modern updates, featuring hardwood floors, a bright formal living and dining area, and a fully updated kitchen and bath. Major improvements include newer roof, furnace, hot water tank, windows, doors, and updated electrical for peace of mind. Appliances not included. Enjoy the convenience of a shared driveway with maintenance handled, plus off-street parking in the rear. Located close to shopping, dining, and major thruways. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors alike!

19. 2026-03-28
    historical
20. 2026-03-26
    listed $184,900 Active
21. 2026-03-17
    historical
22. 2026-03-14
    price $189,900
23. 2026-03-09
    price $225,900
24. 2026-03-07
    status Active
25. 2026-03-07
    price $186,900
26. 2026-03-03
    price $194,900
27. 2026-02-15
    price $199,900
28. 2026-02-14
    price $224,900
29. 2026-02-09
    listed $239,900 Active
30. 2025-05-23
    status Pending
31. 2025-05-22
    historical
32. 2025-05-13
    listed $179,900 Active
33. 2025-04-18
    soldstatus $177,000 Closed
34. 2025-02-15
    status Pending
35. 2025-02-05
    listed $159,900 Active
36. 2024-11-13
    status Pending
37. 2024-11-13
    historical
38. 2024-11-04
    price $149,900
39. 2024-10-29
    listed $179,900 Active
40. 2019-05-17
    soldstatus $60,000
41. 2017-09-07
    status Pending Sale
42. 2017-08-05
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
43. 2017-08-05
    historical
44. 2017-07-14
    listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,486 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,806 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: +$320/yr (+$27/mo · 12.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,486
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,782
• − Management: −$1,782
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$440
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$106
• After-tax cash flow: $2,654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+127.8% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $182,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $165,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $185,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $189,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $199,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-28 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $184,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-17 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $189,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $225,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-07 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $186,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $194,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $199,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $224,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $239,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-05-23 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-05-22 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-05-13 Listed $179,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-04-18 Sold (MLS) $177,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-02-15 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-02-05 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-11-13 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2024-11-13 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-11-04 Price Changed $149,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-10-29 Listed $179,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-07 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2017-08-05 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2017-08-05 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2017-07-14 Listed $79,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,486 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.