35435 Forest Manor Ave · Watson, LA 70706

$286,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,022 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 10,193 sqft lot $36/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience abundant space in our Lacombe floorplan at Whispering Springs, a new home community in Denham Springs, Louisiana. Select from 3 contemporary exteriors to make a bold impression with the Lacombe! Inside this 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home, you'll find 2,029 square feet of comfortable living. As you walk into this home, you'll be greeted by the first set of bedrooms along with the first guest bathroom. Traveling down the hallway you'll see what open concept was meant to be with the kitchen, living and dining area all within reach of each other while being separate enough for individuality. Shaker-style cabinets and gooseneck pulldown faucets adorn the kitchen. The stainless-steel Whirlpool appliances, stove, microwave hood, dishwasher, and single basin under-mount sink, all paired with 3 cm granite countertops, will delight the family chef. The laundry room is conveniently placed across from the dining room for quick access. Situated beside the kitchen, the dining room and living room across from it ensure that everyone can stay engaged in the action, regardless of their location. Behind the dining room lies another hallway with another set of bedrooms, along with another guest bathroom. Each bedroom are carpeted, and has an adequate closet, allowing for space and storage throughout the home. The primary bathroom is large and contains an en suite with a massive walk-in closet, which houses the linins closet. The primary bathroom has dual vanities, a separate tub, and shower, along with a separate water closet. Getting ready in the morning or evenings, will no longer be difficult! Get in touch with us now and discover your new home today!

Key facts

• Lacombe floorplan
• Open concept
• Whispering springs

Tags

• LACOMBE FLOORPLAN
• WHISPERING SPRINGS
• OPEN CONCEPT
• SHAKER-STYLE CABINETS
• GOOSENECK PULLDOWN FAUCETS
• 3 CM GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $286,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $295,212.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $287k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.9% in Watson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#50 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 344 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($278k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,000 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.47%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,212
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35453 Forest Manor Ave	0.00mi	5/3.0	2,022 (0%)	1mo	$290,900	$144	99
35618 Vandora Dr	0.20mi	5/3.0	2,022 (0%)	3mo	$286,900	$142	88
35387 Forest Manor Ave	0.00mi	5/2.0	1,856 (-8%)	3mo	$270,130	$146	80
35414 Forest Manor Ave	0.03mi	5/2.0	1,856 (-8%)	2mo	$271,900	$146	79
35441 Forest Manor Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,825 (-10%)	2mo	$274,900	$151	73
35456 Forest Manor Ave	0.03mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,825 (-10%)	1mo	$272,900	$150	72
35432 Forest Manor Ave	0.03mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,825 (-10%)	2mo	$268,900	$147	72
35438 Forest Manor Ave	0.03mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,825 (-10%)	3mo	$276,915	$152	70
35570 Vandora Dr	0.22mi	5/2.0	1,856 (-8%)	3mo	$266,795	$144	69
35570 Vandora Dr	0.22mi	5/2.0	1,856 (-8%)	3mo	$265,900	$143	69
35576 Vandora Dr	0.22mi	5/2.0	1,856 (-8%)	3mo	$270,900	$146	69
35602 Grovemont Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,087 (+3%)	0mo	$268,000	$128	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-54,219
• Equity at exit: $44,017

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-55,265
• Equity at exit: $25,525

Cash invested: $82,659 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70706

• Active inventory: 344
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,548
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,428/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,628

Max offer price $280,576

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $103	-5% $1	+0% $-101	+5% $-203	+10% $-305
Rent	-10% $-299	-5% $-200	+0% $-101	+5% $-2	+10% $96
Rate	-1.0pp $48	-0.5pp $-26	base $-101	+0.5pp $-178	+1.0pp $-255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,803
• Closing costs: $8,856
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35648 Avery Dr Denham Springs, LA	5.0	2.0	2077	$2,500	$1.20	20d	1	0.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-03
   status Pending 1670-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1670 chars)

   Experience abundant space in our Lacombe floorplan at Whispering Springs, a new home community in Denham Springs, Louisiana. Select from 3 contemporary exteriors to make a bold impression with the Lacombe! Inside this 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home, you'll find 2,029 square feet of comfortable living. As you walk into this home, you'll be greeted by the first set of bedrooms along with the first guest bathroom. Traveling down the hallway you'll see what open concept was meant to be with the kitchen, living and dining area all within reach of each other while being separate enough for individuality. Shaker-style cabinets and gooseneck pulldown faucets adorn the kitchen. The stainless-steel Whirlpool appliances, stove, microwave hood, dishwasher, and single basin under-mount sink, all paired with 3 cm granite countertops, will delight the family chef. The laundry room is conveniently placed across from the dining room for quick access. Situated beside the kitchen, the dining room and living room across from it ensure that everyone can stay engaged in the action, regardless of their location. Behind the dining room lies another hallway with another set of bedrooms, along with another guest bathroom. Each bedroom are carpeted, and has an adequate closet, allowing for space and storage throughout the home. The primary bathroom is large and contains an en suite with a massive walk-in closet, which houses the linins closet. The primary bathroom has dual vanities, a separate tub, and shower, along with a separate water closet. Getting ready in the morning or evenings, will no longer be difficult! Get in touch with us now and discover your new home today!

2. 2026-03-03
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1670 chars)

   Experience abundant space in our Lacombe floorplan at Whispering Springs, a new home community in Denham Springs, Louisiana. Select from 3 contemporary exteriors to make a bold impression with the Lacombe! Inside this 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home, you'll find 2,029 square feet of comfortable living. As you walk into this home, you'll be greeted by the first set of bedrooms along with the first guest bathroom. Traveling down the hallway you'll see what open concept was meant to be with the kitchen, living and dining area all within reach of each other while being separate enough for individuality. Shaker-style cabinets and gooseneck pulldown faucets adorn the kitchen. The stainless-steel Whirlpool appliances, stove, microwave hood, dishwasher, and single basin under-mount sink, all paired with 3 cm granite countertops, will delight the family chef. The laundry room is conveniently placed across from the dining room for quick access. Situated beside the kitchen, the dining room and living room across from it ensure that everyone can stay engaged in the action, regardless of their location. Behind the dining room lies another hallway with another set of bedrooms, along with another guest bathroom. Each bedroom are carpeted, and has an adequate closet, allowing for space and storage throughout the home. The primary bathroom is large and contains an en suite with a massive walk-in closet, which houses the linins closet. The primary bathroom has dual vanities, a separate tub, and shower, along with a separate water closet. Getting ready in the morning or evenings, will no longer be difficult! Get in touch with us now and discover your new home today!

3. 2026-01-28
   listed $286,900 Active 1670-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1670 chars)

   Experience abundant space in our Lacombe floorplan at Whispering Springs, a new home community in Denham Springs, Louisiana. Select from 3 contemporary exteriors to make a bold impression with the Lacombe! Inside this 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home, you'll find 2,029 square feet of comfortable living. As you walk into this home, you'll be greeted by the first set of bedrooms along with the first guest bathroom. Traveling down the hallway you'll see what open concept was meant to be with the kitchen, living and dining area all within reach of each other while being separate enough for individuality. Shaker-style cabinets and gooseneck pulldown faucets adorn the kitchen. The stainless-steel Whirlpool appliances, stove, microwave hood, dishwasher, and single basin under-mount sink, all paired with 3 cm granite countertops, will delight the family chef. The laundry room is conveniently placed across from the dining room for quick access. Situated beside the kitchen, the dining room and living room across from it ensure that everyone can stay engaged in the action, regardless of their location. Behind the dining room lies another hallway with another set of bedrooms, along with another guest bathroom. Each bedroom are carpeted, and has an adequate closet, allowing for space and storage throughout the home. The primary bathroom is large and contains an en suite with a massive walk-in closet, which houses the linins closet. The primary bathroom has dual vanities, a separate tub, and shower, along with a separate water closet. Getting ready in the morning or evenings, will no longer be difficult! Get in touch with us now and discover your new home today!

4. 2026-01-28
   listed $286,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (1670 chars)

   Experience abundant space in our Lacombe floorplan at Whispering Springs, a new home community in Denham Springs, Louisiana. Select from 3 contemporary exteriors to make a bold impression with the Lacombe! Inside this 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom home, you'll find 2,029 square feet of comfortable living. As you walk into this home, you'll be greeted by the first set of bedrooms along with the first guest bathroom. Traveling down the hallway you'll see what open concept was meant to be with the kitchen, living and dining area all within reach of each other while being separate enough for individuality. Shaker-style cabinets and gooseneck pulldown faucets adorn the kitchen. The stainless-steel Whirlpool appliances, stove, microwave hood, dishwasher, and single basin under-mount sink, all paired with 3 cm granite countertops, will delight the family chef. The laundry room is conveniently placed across from the dining room for quick access. Situated beside the kitchen, the dining room and living room across from it ensure that everyone can stay engaged in the action, regardless of their location. Behind the dining room lies another hallway with another set of bedrooms, along with another guest bathroom. Each bedroom are carpeted, and has an adequate closet, allowing for space and storage throughout the home. The primary bathroom is large and contains an en suite with a massive walk-in closet, which houses the linins closet. The primary bathroom has dual vanities, a separate tub, and shower, along with a separate water closet. Getting ready in the morning or evenings, will no longer be difficult! Get in touch with us now and discover your new home today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,536
• − Property taxes: −$4,428
• − Insurance: −$1,476
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$8,588
• Taxable loss: −$6,261
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,503
• After-tax cash flow: $289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Watson

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #7247

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,621

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.82%
• Current HPI: 160.2185
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-03-03 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $286,900 GBRMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $286,900 AcadianaMLS