3876 Vz County Road 3713 · West Tawakoni, TX 75169

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,022 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 321 Days on market

Built 1978 5,227 sqft lot $98/sqft · 46% below area Est $190k · 47% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

APPRAISED at 149,000 GIVING YOU INSTANT EQUITY! Welcome to your dream retreat! Nestled in a serene lake-view setting, this charming home offers a perfect blend of comfort and potential. Imagine waking up to stunning lake views and enjoying your morning coffee on the front porch. Or take it to your back porch, which adds approximately 420 sq ft of bonus space for relaxation or entertaining. The beautifully landscaped lot is dotted with mature trees, providing both privacy and a picturesque backdrop for your outdoor activities. With two gated entrances, accessing your property is convenient and secure. You'll also appreciate the workshop equipped with electricity, ideal for hobbies or additional storage. Whether you're looking to move in and make it your own or envision building your dream lake house from the ground up, this property presents endless possibilities. The home is being sold as-is, allowing you the freedom to explore your creative vision. Don't miss this opportunity to have your perfect lake-view oasis!

Key facts

• Gated entrances
• Front porch
• Lake view

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• FRONT PORCH
• BACK PORCH
• LANDSCAPED LOT
• MATURE TREES
• GATED ENTRANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $546 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 4.6% in West Tawakoni — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,337 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wills Point ISD (town): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #556 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 321 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 321 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.41%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,389
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -47.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $18,551
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $60,803
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75169

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,444 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $338/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $546

Break-even live

Break-even rent $752

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $603	-5% $575	+0% $546	+5% $518	+10% $490
Rent	-10% $432	-5% $489	+0% $546	+5% $603	+10% $660
Rate	-1.0pp $597	-0.5pp $572	base $546	+0.5pp $520	+1.0pp $494

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 321 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 320 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 319 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 318 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 316 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 312 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 311 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 310 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $100,000 Active 307 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 306 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 305 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 304 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 303 DOM
14. 2026-04-11
    price $130,000 1029-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

    APPRAISED at 149,000 GIVING YOU INSTANT EQUITY! Welcome to your dream retreat! Nestled in a serene lake-view setting, this charming home offers a perfect blend of comfort and potential. Imagine waking up to stunning lake views and enjoying your morning coffee on the front porch. Or take it to your back porch, which adds approximately 420 sq ft of bonus space for relaxation or entertaining. The beautifully landscaped lot is dotted with mature trees, providing both privacy and a picturesque backdrop for your outdoor activities. With two gated entrances, accessing your property is convenient and secure. You'll also appreciate the workshop equipped with electricity, ideal for hobbies or additional storage. Whether you're looking to move in and make it your own or envision building your dream lake house from the ground up, this property presents endless possibilities. The home is being sold as-is, allowing you the freedom to explore your creative vision. Don't miss this opportunity to have your perfect lake-view oasis!

15. 2025-08-01
    listed $135,000 Active 1029-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

    APPRAISED at 149,000 GIVING YOU INSTANT EQUITY! Welcome to your dream retreat! Nestled in a serene lake-view setting, this charming home offers a perfect blend of comfort and potential. Imagine waking up to stunning lake views and enjoying your morning coffee on the front porch. Or take it to your back porch, which adds approximately 420 sq ft of bonus space for relaxation or entertaining. The beautifully landscaped lot is dotted with mature trees, providing both privacy and a picturesque backdrop for your outdoor activities. With two gated entrances, accessing your property is convenient and secure. You'll also appreciate the workshop equipped with electricity, ideal for hobbies or additional storage. Whether you're looking to move in and make it your own or envision building your dream lake house from the ground up, this property presents endless possibilities. The home is being sold as-is, allowing you the freedom to explore your creative vision. Don't miss this opportunity to have your perfect lake-view oasis!

16. 2024-09-23
    listed $162,000 Active
17. 1994-08-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $338 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,492/yr (+$124/mo · 440.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$338
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,386
• − Management: −$1,386
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $5,204
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,249
• After-tax cash flow: $5,306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wills Point ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845950
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,534
• Composite: 28.58/100
• National rank: #6721
• State rank: #556 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Tawakoni

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1337
• US rank: #23022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,744

Population outlook (Van Zandt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,634 people
• By 2030: 56,479 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 57,672 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 57,913 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 57,544 · +3.4%
• By 2100: 52,659 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Zandt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -55.1pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+72.1 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+66.6 2008: R+55.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.68%
• Current HPI: 250.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $130,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2024-09-23 Listed $162,000 NTREIS
• 1994-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $338 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.