3876 Vz County Road 3713 · Wills Point, TX 75169

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,022 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 364 Days on market

Built 1978 Fair condition 5,227 sqft lot $98/sqft · 46% below area Est $190k · 47% under ↓ 20% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

APPRAISED at 149,000 GIVING YOU INSTANT EQUITY! Welcome to your dream retreat! Nestled in a serene lake-view setting, this charming home offers a perfect blend of comfort and potential. Imagine waking up to stunning lake views and enjoying your morning coffee on the front porch. Or take it to your back porch, which adds approximately 420 sq ft of bonus space for relaxation or entertaining. The beautifully landscaped lot is dotted with mature trees, providing both privacy and a picturesque backdrop for your outdoor activities. With two gated entrances, accessing your property is convenient and secure. You'll also appreciate the workshop equipped with electricity, ideal for hobbies or additional storage. Whether you're looking to move in and make it your own or envision building your dream lake house from the ground up, this property presents endless possibilities. The home is being sold as-is, allowing you the freedom to explore your creative vision. Don't miss this opportunity to have your perfect lake-view oasis!

Key facts

• Gated entrances
• Front porch
• Lake view

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• FRONT PORCH
• BACK PORCH
• LANDSCAPED LOT
• MATURE TREES
• GATED ENTRANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $642 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 2.8% in Wills Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,174 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wills Point ISD (town): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #556 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Earnest O Woods Int (math 28% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 589 students, 56% FRL); Wills Point Middle (math 31% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,036 of 1,662 statewide, top 63%, 407 students, 68% FRL); Wills Point H S (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 803 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 460 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 364 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 364 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.50%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $190,265
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -47.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3557 County Road 3713	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+2%)	8mo	$105,000	$101	59
10577 Whippoorwill Ln	1.98mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-2%)	59mo	$189,900	$190	41
120 Vz County Road 3810	0.77mi	2/1.0	990 (-3%)	40mo	$199,900	$202	36
3501 County Road 3711	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (+12%)	16mo	$220,000	$193	32
175 Vz County Road 3727	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,125 (+10%)	17mo	$155,000	$138	29
3432 County Road 3711	0.78mi	2/1.0	1,100 (+8%)	28mo	$180,000	$164	28
361 Vz County Road 3716	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+25%)	49mo	$215,000	$168	24
2841 Honey Bee Ln	2.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,220 (+19%)	10mo	$199,999	$164	23
1419 Vz County Road 3810	1.81mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+17%)	32mo	$799,900	$667	20
TBD Honey Bee Ln	2.01mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (+10%)	39mo	$150,000	$134	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $24,630
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $73,929
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75169

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Active inventory: 460
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,565 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $338/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $642

Break-even live

Break-even rent $752

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $698	-5% $670	+0% $642	+5% $613	+10% $585
Rent	-10% $518	-5% $580	+0% $642	+5% $704	+10% $765
Rate	-1.0pp $692	-0.5pp $667	base $642	+0.5pp $616	+1.0pp $589

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-07-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 364 DOM
2. 2026-07-30
   days on market $100,000 Active 363 DOM
3. 2026-07-30
   days on market $100,000 Active 362 DOM
4. 2026-07-28
   days on market $100,000 Active 361 DOM
5. 2026-07-26
   days on market $100,000 Active 359 DOM
6. 2026-07-24
   days on market $100,000 Active 357 DOM
7. 2026-07-23
   days on market $100,000 Active 356 DOM
8. 2026-07-22
   days on market $100,000 Active 355 DOM
9. 2026-07-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 354 DOM
10. 2026-07-20
    days on market $100,000 Active 353 DOM
11. 2026-07-18
    days on market $100,000 Active 351 DOM
12. 2026-07-18
    days on market $100,000 Active 350 DOM
13. 2026-07-16
    days on market $100,000 Active 349 DOM
14. 2026-07-15
    days on market $100,000 Active 348 DOM
15. 2026-07-14
    days on market $100,000 Active 347 DOM
16. 2026-07-13
    days on market $100,000 Active 346 DOM
17. 2026-07-13
    days on market $100,000 Active 345 DOM
18. 2026-07-11
    days on market $100,000 Active 344 DOM
19. 2026-07-10
    days on market $100,000 Active 343 DOM
20. 2026-07-09
    days on market $100,000 Active 342 DOM
21. 2026-07-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 340 DOM
22. 2026-07-06
    days on market $100,000 Active 339 DOM
23. 2026-07-06
    days on market $100,000 Active 338 DOM
24. 2026-07-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 337 DOM
25. 2026-07-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 336 DOM
26. 2026-07-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 335 DOM
27. 2026-07-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 334 DOM
28. 2026-06-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 333 DOM
29. 2026-06-29
    days on market $100,000 Active 332 DOM
30. 2026-06-28
    days on market $100,000 Active 331 DOM
31. 2026-06-27
    days on market $100,000 Active 330 DOM
32. 2026-06-26
    days on market $100,000 Active 329 DOM
33. 2026-06-24
    days on market $100,000 Active 327 DOM
34. 2026-06-22
    days on market $100,000 Active 325 DOM
35. 2026-06-21
    days on market $100,000 Active 324 DOM
36. 2026-06-18
    days on market $100,000 Active 321 DOM
37. 2026-06-17
    days on market $100,000 Active 320 DOM
38. 2026-06-16
    days on market $100,000 Active 319 DOM
39. 2026-06-15
    days on market $100,000 Active 318 DOM
40. 2026-06-13
    days on market $100,000 Active 316 DOM
41. 2026-06-09
    days on market $100,000 Active 312 DOM
42. 2026-06-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 311 DOM
43. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 310 DOM
44. 2026-06-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 307 DOM
45. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 306 DOM
46. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 305 DOM
47. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 304 DOM
48. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 303 DOM
49. 2026-04-11
    price $130,000 1029-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

    APPRAISED at 149,000 GIVING YOU INSTANT EQUITY! Welcome to your dream retreat! Nestled in a serene lake-view setting, this charming home offers a perfect blend of comfort and potential. Imagine waking up to stunning lake views and enjoying your morning coffee on the front porch. Or take it to your back porch, which adds approximately 420 sq ft of bonus space for relaxation or entertaining. The beautifully landscaped lot is dotted with mature trees, providing both privacy and a picturesque backdrop for your outdoor activities. With two gated entrances, accessing your property is convenient and secure. You'll also appreciate the workshop equipped with electricity, ideal for hobbies or additional storage. Whether you're looking to move in and make it your own or envision building your dream lake house from the ground up, this property presents endless possibilities. The home is being sold as-is, allowing you the freedom to explore your creative vision. Don't miss this opportunity to have your perfect lake-view oasis!

50. 2025-08-01
    listed $135,000 Active 1029-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1029 chars)

    APPRAISED at 149,000 GIVING YOU INSTANT EQUITY! Welcome to your dream retreat! Nestled in a serene lake-view setting, this charming home offers a perfect blend of comfort and potential. Imagine waking up to stunning lake views and enjoying your morning coffee on the front porch. Or take it to your back porch, which adds approximately 420 sq ft of bonus space for relaxation or entertaining. The beautifully landscaped lot is dotted with mature trees, providing both privacy and a picturesque backdrop for your outdoor activities. With two gated entrances, accessing your property is convenient and secure. You'll also appreciate the workshop equipped with electricity, ideal for hobbies or additional storage. Whether you're looking to move in and make it your own or envision building your dream lake house from the ground up, this property presents endless possibilities. The home is being sold as-is, allowing you the freedom to explore your creative vision. Don't miss this opportunity to have your perfect lake-view oasis!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $338 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,492/yr (+$124/mo · 440.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$338
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,502
• − Management: −$1,502
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $6,421
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,541
• After-tax cash flow: $6,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $25,550–$45,990 screening

This property offers a serene lake-view setting with a moderate level of repairs and maintenance needed, primarily focusing on exterior and interior painting. Upgrades in these areas can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered and may need repainting.
• Minor Roof — No visible signs of major damage but may need inspection.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping trimming and maintenance — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value. ↑
• Both Painting interior walls — Enhances interior appearance and can be a selling point. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and can be a selling point for potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Earnest O Woods Int F TX #2,706/4,322 Nat'l #28,012/41,679 Middle Wills Point J H F TX #690/1,662 Nat'l #6,362/14,009 High Wills Point H S F TX #963/1,632 Nat'l #9,639/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wills Point ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845950
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,534
• Composite: 28.58/100
• National rank: #6721
• State rank: #556 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Wills Point

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1174
• US rank: #20542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Van Zandt · 55,634 people
• City population: 15,744
• Population (ZIP): 15,744
• Household income: $67,879
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

---

Population outlook (Van Zandt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,634 people
• By 2030: 56,479 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 57,672 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 57,913 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 57,544 · +3.4%
• By 2100: 52,659 · -5.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Van Zandt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -55.1pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+72.1 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+66.6 2008: R+55.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.68%
• Current HPI: 250.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $130,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2024-09-23 Listed $162,000 NTREIS
• 1994-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $338 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.