26603 Leafton Ln · Pinehurst, TX 77354

$241,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,996 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1977 0.92 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Rimwick Forest, nestled in the heart of the rapidly growing Magnolia area. This property sits on nearly one acre surrounded by mature trees, offering both privacy and charm. It’s an excellent opportunity for investors or anyone eager to customize a home to their own vision. The backyard features a pool that needs some attention but has great potential to become a standout recreational space. The neighborhood is peaceful and quiet, yet conveniently located near HWY 249, giving you quick access to restaurants, shopping, and everyday essentials. A rare find with plenty of room to make it your own. No MUD taxes! Property is being sold as is.

Key facts

• No mud taxes
• Nearly one acre
• Mature trees

Tags

• NEARLY ONE ACRE
• MATURE TREES
• BACKYARD FEATURES A POOL
• NO MUD TAXES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $241k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($422/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Decker Prairie El (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 40% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 64% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Tomball ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $241k implies a 262% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,596 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.63%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $510,976
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26603 Leafton Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,996 (0%)	0mo	$241,000	$121	100
12103 Hillcrest Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,979 (-1%)	7mo	$595,000	$301	63
914 Rustic Oaks Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,031 (+2%)	11mo	$595,000	$293	62
26050 Andy Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,188 (+10%)	3mo	$450,000	$206	60
33602 Hillside Dr	0.45mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,034 (+2%)	21mo	$699,900	$344	50
26418 Leafton Ln	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,258 (+13%)	17mo	$559,950	$248	49
26934 Dustin Lane Ln	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,208 (+11%)	23mo	$565,000	$256	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $127,698
• Equity at exit: $217,112

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.39×
• Total profit: $363,777
• Equity at exit: $468,210

Cash invested: $67,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,236 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,264
• Tax from tax record: −$367 /mo · $4,404/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,191

Max offer price $241,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,250
• Closing costs: $7,230
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-16
   status Active
4. 2026-04-04
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
6. 2026-03-28
   status Active
7. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
8. 2026-03-14
   listed $241,000 Active
9. 2005-03-31
   soldstatus
10. 2003-04-02
    soldstatus
11. 1994-06-24
    soldstatus $66,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,404 · $367/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,410 · $368/mo
• Expected delta: +$7/yr (+$1/mo · 0.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,500
• − Property taxes: −$4,404
• − Insurance: −$1,205
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,147
• − Management: −$2,147
• − Depreciation: −$7,011
• Taxable loss: −$3,581
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$859
• After-tax cash flow: $1,282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+262.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $241,000 HARMLS
• 2005-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $66,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,404 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.