805 Arlington Dr · Toms River, NJ 08755

$369,999

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Condo public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1987 $390/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully refreshed 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering modern style and everyday comfort. Recently renovated throughout, it features brand-new flooring, fresh paint, and recessed lighting that enhances the bright, open layout. The updated kitchen boasts sleek stainless steel appliances, including a convenient 2-in-1 washer and dryer, along with stylish finishes perfect for cooking and entertaining. Bathrooms have been tastefully redesigned with a clean, contemporary feel. Move-in ready and affordably priced, this home is ideal for first-time buyers or investors. Enjoy low-maintenance living with an HOA that covers exterior upkeep, snow removal, and amenities like a clubhous

Key facts

• $390 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of 390 (Saratoga association)

Exterior

• Parking: No garage spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium ownership; Living area approximately 1216
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Property is attached (condominium)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Heating included; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; No fireplaces; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $622 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $370k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,322/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($88k/yr) (locally 529% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $270k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $369,999

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.21%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-20,126
• Equity at exit: $55,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $34,344
• Equity at exit: $31,991

Cash invested: $103,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,322 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$308 /mo · $3,697/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$390
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$908
• Net cashflow: $622

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,535

Max offer price $369,999

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,500
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,500	$2.48	13d	1	0.95mi
100 Jumper Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1502	$5,391	$3.59	1d	25	1.13mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $390 · $4,680/yr
• Likely covers: snow removal
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $369,999 Active
3. 2026-04-05
   historical $369,999
4. 2025-10-01
   soldstatus $270,000
5. 2023-11-30
   status Pending
6. 2023-08-31
   listed $269,999 Active
7. 2003-09-30
   soldstatus $169,500
8. 1995-09-20
   soldstatus $70,250
9. 1988-02-05
   soldstatus $106,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,697 · $308/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,455 · $538/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,758/yr (+$230/mo · 74.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,726
• − Property taxes: −$3,697
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,149
• − Management: −$4,149
• − HOA: −$4,680
• − Depreciation: −$10,764
• Taxable income: $1,853
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$445
• After-tax cash flow: $7,020/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+246.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $369,999 MOMLS
• 2026-04-05 Coming Soon $369,999 MOMLS
• 2025-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-30 Pending — MOMLS
• 2023-08-31 Listed $269,999 MOMLS
• 2003-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $169,500 Public Records
• 1995-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $70,250 Public Records
• 1988-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $106,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,697 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.