551 Lake Charles Dr · Haines City, FL 33837

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2004 6,064 sqft lot $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. This Davenport one-story home offers a patio, and a two-car garage.

Key facts

• Open layout
• Enclosed porch
• 6,064 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-80/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (0.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $223k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Horizons Elementary School (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,587 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,468 students, 42% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 1396 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.12%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-44,260
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-64,421
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33837

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 1396
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,301 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$481 /mo · $5,777/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,309

Max offer price $228,819

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $58	+0% $-7	+5% $-72	+10% $-137
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-98	+0% $-7	+5% $84	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $109	-0.5pp $52	base $-7	+0.5pp $-66	+1.0pp $-127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Delancey Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,000	$1.12	25d	1	0.11mi
2429 Maidens Bluff Ave Unit Cali Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,469	$1.35	5d	1	0.13mi
2510 Declaration St Davenport, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2136	$2,050	$0.96	5d	2	0.15mi
1001 Lake Charles Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,895	$1.06	25d	1	0.17mi
4264 Chester Springs Blvd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1699	$1,850	$1.09	23d	1	0.38mi
1257 Hendon Loop Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1775	$2,460	$1.39	16d	1	0.42mi
210 Garberia Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,995	$1.39	4d	1	0.50mi
905 Citrus Reserve Blvd Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	2109	$2,800	$1.33	16d	1	0.55mi
868 Brooklet Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,250	$1.30	25d	1	0.56mi
3633 Cambridge Brook Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$2,450	$1.55	25d	1	0.59mi
3418 Haven Side Rd Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	2203	$2,495	$1.13	25d	1	0.66mi
316 Bandon Dunes Loop Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	1950	$2,550	$1.31	25d	1	0.69mi
729 Brooklet Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,300	$1.52	13d	1	0.73mi
518 Noble Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,950	$1.17	25d	1	0.73mi
420 Noble Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,175	$1.26	16d	1	0.77mi
737 Citrus Reserve Blvd Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	2080	$3,000	$1.44	25d	1	0.77mi
497 Noble Ave Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1989	$2,300	$1.16	25d	1	0.79mi
1909 Chickasaw Blvd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,050	$1.19	5d	1	0.79mi
363 Nova Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1770	$1,900	$1.07	16d	1	0.80mi
405 Noble Ave Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,330	$1.25	25d	1	0.82mi
1004 Brooklet Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1875	$2,230	$1.19	4d	1	0.84mi
2617 Magnolia Ave Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	2523	$2,700	$1.07	25d	1	0.86mi
1246 Red Hill Rd Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,280	$1.22	5d	1	0.86mi
2441 Oakwood Ln Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,199	$1.55	25d	1	0.90mi
1548 Catbriar Way Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,990	$1.42	16d	1	0.91mi
384 Citrus Pointe Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,250	$1.24	25d	1	0.94mi
353 Citrus Pointe Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	1923	$2,285	$1.19	5d	1	0.95mi
1779 Buckeye Rd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,100	$1.22	16d	1	0.97mi
1188 Sugarwood St Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1443	$2,400	$1.66	25d	1	0.98mi
365 Citrus Pointe Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1975	$2,500	$1.27	23d	1	0.99mi
1724 Buckeye Rd Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,450	$1.31	25d	1	1.00mi
2343 Canyon Oak Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,150	$1.15	16d	1	1.05mi
233 Hamlet Rd Unit n/a Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1718	$1,950	$1.14	15d	1	1.07mi
569 Disa Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1767	$2,200	$1.25	5d	1	1.11mi
584 Disa Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1767	$2,200	$1.25	5d	1	1.12mi
2205 Aquifer Ln Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,000	$1.39	25d	1	1.15mi
220 Champions Way Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1107	$1,997	$1.80	4d	7	1.17mi
203 Bella Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,205	$1.18	5d	1	1.18mi
2043 Punch Bowl Ave Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1930	$2,250	$1.17	16d	1	1.18mi
2178 Aquifer Ln Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	25d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $230,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $230,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    status Pending
17. 2026-03-23
    listed $230,000 Active
18. 2025-06-07
    historical
19. 2024-12-30
    listed $280,000 Active
20. 2021-10-25
    soldstatus $279,000
21. 2021-10-12
    soldstatus $279,000 Closed 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. This Davenport one-story home offers a patio, and a two-car garage.

22. 2021-08-30
    status Pending 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. This Davenport one-story home offers a patio, and a two-car garage.

23. 2021-08-24
    listed $280,000 Active 115-char remark

    Show marketing remark (115 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. This Davenport one-story home offers a patio, and a two-car garage.

24. 2021-07-22
    soldstatus $269,100
25. 2017-02-09
    historical
26. 2017-01-20
    listed $174,950 Active
27. 2016-10-26
    historical
28. 2016-10-17
    status Active
29. 2016-10-17
    historical
30. 2016-10-05
    listed $175,000 Active
31. 2004-05-13
    soldstatus $350,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,777 · $481/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,777 · $481/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$5,777
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,209
• − Management: −$2,209
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$3,800
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$912
• After-tax cash flow: $832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,389
• Household income: $81,276
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 36% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 22% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.62%
• Current HPI: 256.8165
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.73%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-34.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-30 Listed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $279,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-12 Sold (MLS) $279,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-24 Listed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $269,100 Public Records
• 2017-02-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-20 Listed $174,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-26 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-05 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $350,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,777 · -3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.