Churchill (Autumn Lake Pointe) Plan · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40272

$85,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Manufactured · 238 Days on market

$595/mo HOA · 34% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Autumn Lake Pointe is conveniently located just off of Dixie Highway in Valley Station, in a quiet suburban neighborhood close to shopping, employment and schools. Amenities for residents include a new clubhouse/community center, soccer field, walking/nature trail, basketball court, playground, picnic area and bbq grills. Community Amenities Basketball Court, Clubhouse, Picnic Area, Playground, Soccer Field, and Walking/Nature Trails

Key facts

• Picnic area
• Clubhouse
• Soccer field

Tags

• CLUBHOUSE
• SOCCER FIELD
• WALKING NATURE TRAIL
• BASKETBALL COURT
• PLAYGROUND
• PICNIC AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $85,995
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $595

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan; Address in Louisville, KY (Autumn Lake Pointe)
• Exterior features: Built as a plan in the Autumn Lake Pointe community; Living area approximately 1280

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan model: Churchill (Autumn Lake Pointe)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $86k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $86k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $594 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,675 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.04%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-3,599
• Equity at exit: $12,822

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $6,854
• Equity at exit: $7,435

Cash invested: $24,079 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40272

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,735 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$107 /mo · $1,290/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$595
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,505

Max offer price $85,995

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,499
• Closing costs: $2,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12306 Glengrove Cir Louisville, KY	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1215	$1,976	$1.63	2d	36	0.54mi
11804 Leemont Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,940	$1.11	24d	1	0.75mi
5402 Logwood Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	950	$1,375	$1.45	12d	1	0.76mi
11711 Wiltonwood Ct Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,459	$1.22	12d	1	0.88mi
11700 Wiltonwood Ct Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,090	$1.14	3d	1	0.92mi
13217 Forge Cir Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1092	$1,495	$1.37	2d	1	0.94mi
7019 James Madison Way Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,750	$1.27	2d	1	1.12mi
6902 Betsy Ross Dr Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1230	$1,700	$1.38	15d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $595 · $7,140/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,995 Active 238 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,995 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,995 Active 236 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,995 Active 235 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,995 Active 233 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,995 Active 230 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,995 Active 229 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,995 Active 228 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,995 Active 227 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,995 Active 223 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,995 Active 222 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,995 Active 221 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,995 Active 220 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,817
• − Property taxes: −$1,290
• − Insurance: −$430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,666
• − Management: −$1,666
• − HOA: −$7,140
• − Depreciation: −$2,502
• Taxable income: $1,310
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$315
• After-tax cash flow: $1,862/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,289
• Household income: $69,940
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.10%
• Current HPI: 247.2954
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.07%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B