426 Emerald Thicket Ln · Houston, TX 77336

$244,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,655 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 4,377 sqft lot $148/sqft · 5% below area Est $250k · at est. $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your new home built by Cyrene Homes! Upgraded elevation and front door! The gorgeous kitchen features white shaker cabinets, granite countertops, and tile backsplash! Recessed lighting & stainless-steel appliances! The bathrooms offer tile flooring! Zoned to Huffman ISD! Walking distance from the nearby elementary school! Moments from Lake Houston Marina! Enjoy the lake breezes! Within proximity to TX-99, I-69, and Alt 90!

Key facts

• Upgraded elevation
• Recessed lighting
• Granite countertops

Tags

• UPGRADED ELEVATION
• WHITE SHAKER CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 585 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,121 (7.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.03%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,990
• List price: $244,990
• Delta: -2.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
513 Emerald Thicket Ln	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,647 (-0%)	1mo	$249,990	$152	90
24705 Sonora Crescent Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,689 (+2%)	3mo	$288,990	$171	82
24712 Stablewood Forest Ct	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,556 (-6%)	0mo	$180,000	$116	82
24414 Whitesail Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,663 (+0%)	3mo	$193,200	$116	80
24702 Stablewood Frst	0.05mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,774 (+7%)	2mo	$254,990	$144	77
24716 Lago Bay Ln	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,616 (-2%)	2mo	$244,990	$152	76
24707 White Libertia Ct	0.14mi	4/2.5	1,860 (+12%)	3mo	$259,990	$140	71
24702 Pennfield Arbor Ln	0.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,556 (-6%)	2mo	$231,990	$149	71
24402 Lightwoods Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,607 (-3%)	3mo	$254,900	$159	70
24702 Windward Birch Ln	0.24mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,774 (+7%)	2mo	$254,990	$144	68
231 Loon River Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,833 (+11%)	3mo	$314,900	$172	58
331 Cherry Valley Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (-10%)	2mo	$185,000	$124	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-21,478
• Equity at exit: $36,529

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $4,524
• Equity at exit: $21,182

Cash invested: $68,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,261 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $949/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,897

Max offer price $244,990

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,248
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
408 Emerald Thicket Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.5	1755	$2,200	$1.25	43d	1	0.04mi
24523 Whitesail Dr Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,800	$1.19	43d	1	0.22mi
24527 Lightwoods Dr Huffman, TX	4.0	2.0	2095	$2,100	$1.00	43d	1	0.33mi
24719 Colony Meadow Trl Huffman, TX	4.0	2.0	1613	$2,200	$1.36	43d	1	0.58mi
24730 Russet Bluff Trl Huffman, TX	4.0	2.0	1604	$2,150	$1.34	1d	1	0.67mi
24118 Grey Fox Dr Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1543	$1,425	$0.92	43d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,990 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,990 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,990 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,990 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,990 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,990 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,990 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $244,990 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $244,990 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,990 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,990 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,990 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,990 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    status Active 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Welcome to your new home built by Cyrene Homes! Upgraded elevation and front door! The gorgeous kitchen features white shaker cabinets, granite countertops, and tile backsplash! Recessed lighting & stainless-steel appliances! The bathrooms offer tile flooring! Zoned to Huffman ISD! Walking distance from the nearby elementary school! Moments from Lake Houston Marina! Enjoy the lake breezes! Within proximity to TX-99, I-69, and Alt 90!

15. 2026-04-25
    status Pending 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Welcome to your new home built by Cyrene Homes! Upgraded elevation and front door! The gorgeous kitchen features white shaker cabinets, granite countertops, and tile backsplash! Recessed lighting & stainless-steel appliances! The bathrooms offer tile flooring! Zoned to Huffman ISD! Walking distance from the nearby elementary school! Moments from Lake Houston Marina! Enjoy the lake breezes! Within proximity to TX-99, I-69, and Alt 90!

16. 2026-04-22
    listed $244,990 Active 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Welcome to your new home built by Cyrene Homes! Upgraded elevation and front door! The gorgeous kitchen features white shaker cabinets, granite countertops, and tile backsplash! Recessed lighting & stainless-steel appliances! The bathrooms offer tile flooring! Zoned to Huffman ISD! Walking distance from the nearby elementary school! Moments from Lake Houston Marina! Enjoy the lake breezes! Within proximity to TX-99, I-69, and Alt 90!

17. 2026-04-21
    historical
18. 2026-02-19
    listed $244,990 Active
19. 2026-02-18
    historical
20. 2026-02-07
    price $244,990
21. 2026-01-30
    price $255,990
22. 2025-11-20
    listed $258,990 Active
23. 2025-11-17
    historical
24. 2025-08-19
    listed $258,990 Active
25. 2025-08-19
    historical
26. 2025-06-12
    listed $258,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $949 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,483 · $374/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,534/yr (+$295/mo · 372.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,723
• − Property taxes: −$949
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,171
• − Management: −$2,171
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$627
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$151
• After-tax cash flow: $3,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a neutral and clean aesthetic. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and prevents water damage

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and prevents water damage ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $244,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $244,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $244,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $255,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $258,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $258,990 HARMLS
• 2025-06-12 Listed $258,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+24.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $949 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.