2626 Nutmeg Ct Ct #2626 · McKee City, NJ 08330

$174,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,376 sqft · Townhouse · 302 Days on market

Built 1986 $127/sqft · at area comps Est $181k · at est. $254/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

UPDATED Townhouse. Beautiful 2 bedroom, 1 1/2 Baths, featuring nice size living room and dinning room, upgraded kitchen includes new appliances with newer flooring through out, sliders that open to patio. 2 very spacious bedrooms. Unit was renovated in 2018. Full size washer and dryer. Beautiful pools just steps away within the community. Clubhouse, playground, & security. Close to bus transportation, walking distance to shopping and malls. Property is currently occupied with annual leases in place. Buyer responsible for CO

Key facts

• Newer flooring
• Upgraded kitchen
• Beautiful pools

Tags

• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEWER FLOORING
• SLIDERS THAT OPEN TO PATIO
• FULL SIZE WASHER AND DRYER
• BEAUTIFUL POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.0% in McKee City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hamilton Township School District (suburban): math 9% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #401 of 472 in NJ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 302 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 302 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.44%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $181,253
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: -3.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2841 Forsythia #71	0.16mi	2/1.5	1,268 (-8%)	1mo	$120,000	$95	79
2724 Evergreen Ct Ct #2724	0.18mi	2/1.5	1,376 (0%)	24mo	$225,000	$164	72
2639 . Nutmeg Ct #7	0.06mi	2/1.5	1,268 (-8%)	18mo	$177,500	$140	69
2532 Cottonwood Ct	0.27mi	2/1.5	1,376 (0%)	23mo	$174,995	$127	68
2818 Hawthorn Ct #2818 Hawthorn	0.17mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,249 (-9%)	4mo	$210,000	$168	65
3411 Juniper Ct Ct #3411	0.33mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,249 (-9%)	1mo	$229,900	$184	60
2815 Hawthorn Ct #2815	0.17mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,249 (-9%)	24mo	$215,000	$172	48
3219 Juniper Ct #3219	0.32mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,249 (-9%)	21mo	$205,000	$164	43
4519 Concord Pl	0.63mi	2/1.5	1,536 (+12%)	12mo	$215,000	$140	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $117,376
• Equity at exit: $157,564

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.71×
• Total profit: $328,786
• Equity at exit: $339,792

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08330

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,287 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,624/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$254
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,852

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2703 Mimosa Ct Mays Landing, NJ	2.0	1.5	1268	$2,200	$1.74	13d	1	0.08mi
2807 Hawthorn Ct Mays Landing, NJ	1.0	1.0	929	$1,800	$1.94	13d	1	0.15mi
2609 Dogwood Ct #52 Mays Landing, NJ	3.0	1.5	1628	$2,200	$1.35	13d	1	0.18mi
2604 Dogwood Ct #43 Mays Landing, NJ	3.0	1.5	1628	$2,580	$1.58	13d	1	0.21mi
2604 Dogwood Ct Mays Landing, NJ	3.0	1.5	1628	$2,580	$1.58	13d	1	0.21mi
2529 Cottonwood Ct Mays Landing, NJ	2.0	1.5	1376	$2,200	$1.60	43d	1	0.22mi
2529 Cottonwood Ct Mays Landing, NJ	2.0	1.5	1376	$2,200	$1.60	13d	1	0.22mi
3401 Montgomery Dr Mays Landing, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1192	$2,810	$2.36	13d	18	0.33mi
2605 Flagstaff Ct #2605 Mays Landing, NJ	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	21d	1	0.78mi
1932 Cologne Ave Mays Landing, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,825	$2.35	13d	1	0.82mi
2000 Timber Glen Dr Mays Landing, NJ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1577	$2,441	$1.55	13d	2	0.85mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $254 · $3,048/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,900 Active 302 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 301 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 300 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 299 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 298 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 296 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 295 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 293 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 292 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $174,900 Active 291 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 290 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 286 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 285 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 284 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 283 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $174,900 Active 282 DOM
17. 2025-09-17
    price $174,900 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    UPDATED Townhouse. Beautiful 2 bedroom, 1 1/2 Baths, featuring nice size living room and dinning room, upgraded kitchen includes new appliances with newer flooring through out, sliders that open to patio. 2 very spacious bedrooms. Unit was renovated in 2018. Full size washer and dryer. Beautiful pools just steps away within the community. Clubhouse, playground, & security. Close to bus transportation, walking distance to shopping and malls. Property is currently occupied with annual leases in place. Buyer responsible for CO

18. 2025-08-21
    listed $179,900 Active 534-char remark

    Show marketing remark (534 chars)

    UPDATED Townhouse. Beautiful 2 bedroom, 1 1/2 Baths, featuring nice size living room and dinning room, upgraded kitchen includes new appliances with newer flooring through out, sliders that open to patio. 2 very spacious bedrooms. Unit was renovated in 2018. Full size washer and dryer. Beautiful pools just steps away within the community. Clubhouse, playground, & security. Close to bus transportation, walking distance to shopping and malls. Property is currently occupied with annual leases in place. Buyer responsible for CO

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,624
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,196
• − Management: −$2,196
• − HOA: −$3,048
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $1,625
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$390
• After-tax cash flow: $3,742/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3406510
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $60,997
• Composite: 21.34/100
• National rank: #8372
• State rank: #401 of 472 in NJ

Livability — McKee City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: McKee City, NJ
• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 29,972
• Household income: $77,167
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1003.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.58%
• Current HPI: 308.5148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $174,900 SJSRMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $179,900 SJSRMLS