3253 Flagstone Ct · Toms River, NJ 08755

$374,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,599 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1998 6,534 sqft lot $234/sqft · 13% below area Est $432k · 13% under $239/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you looking for a 1599 SQ. FT. home in Lake Ridge with ''Split Bedrooms'' meaning one on each end of the house? Then look no further, this house is for you! THIS Lovely Barrington II model is on a PREMIUM LOT and IS LOCATED ''Up On the Hill'' with ONLY ONE OWNER! Hurry, this home will not last. NEWER ROOF, FURNACE, A/C AND HOT WATER HEATER. The Entry Foyer has tile floors that lead to a LOVELY LIVING ROOM/DINING ROOM COMBO with Cathedral Ceilings and Recessed Lights that offer an OPEN FLOOR PLAN PLUS a BONUS SUNROOM/DEN with a ceiling fan. This is a SUNNY HOME! The Eat In Kitchen is perfect with a Tile Backsplash, Crown Molding and a ONE OF A KIND TILE FLOOR. The Primary Suite has a Ceiling Fan, Two Double Closets PLUS A WALK IN CLOSET and an ENSUITE BATH WITH A DOUBLE STALL SHOWER. The Guest Bedroom has a BAY WINDOW which is perfect for Natural Light, Crown Molding and Ceiling Fan. The Guest Bath has a TUB. There are Bonus GLUE DOWN HARDWOOD FLOORS in the Hallway. The Direct Entry garage has pull down stairs for ADDITIONAL ATTIC STORAGE. Highly Desired Lake Ridge is a Gated Active Adult Community which offers LOW HOA FEES, LOW TAXES, a heated indoor pool which is open all year, an outdoor pool, a fitness center, tennis and pickleball courts, mat yoga and chair yoga, bowling, bridge, bocce, dance, mahjongg, card rooms, billiards room, social room, library, community bus for shopping, many social clubs, multiday travel club, so much more and something for everyone. TRULY A MUST SEE HOME. COME JOIN US AND HAVE FUN! Don't miss out!

Key facts

• Ceiling fan
• Newer roof
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• PREMIUM LOT
• NEWER ROOF
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• ONE OF A KIND TILE FLOOR
• CEILING FAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-237 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $327k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Joseph A. Citta Elementary School (math 13% / reading 38%, grade F, #851 of 1,303 statewide, top 66%, 483 students, 61% FRL); Toms River Intermediate School North (math 18% / reading 49%, grade F, #265 of 431 statewide, top 63%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); Toms River High School North (math 24% / reading 52%, grade F, #210 of 399 statewide, top 53%, 1,931 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 22% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($341k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $326,552 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.71%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $432,492
• List price: $374,900
• Delta: -13.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3349 Deep River Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,675 (+5%)	1mo	$365,000	$218	84
2725 Brookdale Ct	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,667 (+4%)	0mo	$450,000	$270	72
20 Winding River Rd	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,696 (+6%)	1mo	$415,000	$245	67
2656 Silver Hill Ln	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,727 (+8%)	0mo	$350,000	$203	64
2396 Crisfield Cir	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,667 (+4%)	2mo	$424,900	$255	60
2357 W Ashfield Ct	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,667 (+4%)	2mo	$480,000	$288	60
2570 Little Pine Ct	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,741 (+9%)	1mo	$450,000	$258	59
2666 Meadow Lake Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,444 (-10%)	1mo	$399,999	$277	58
22 Foxwood Rd	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,432 (-10%)	2mo	$340,000	$237	55
14 Oakmont Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,745 (+9%)	1mo	$516,500	$296	53
45 Deer Chase Ln	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,432 (-10%)	2mo	$360,000	$251	50
2684 Rockport Ln	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,814 (+13%)	1mo	$510,000	$281	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-75,665
• Equity at exit: $55,899

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-84,572
• Equity at exit: $32,415

Cash invested: $104,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,266 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,966
• Tax from tax record: −$456 /mo · $5,468/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$239
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$686
• Net cashflow: $-237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,566

Max offer price $333,008

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-25	-5% $-131	+0% $-237	+5% $-343	+10% $-449
Rent	-10% $-495	-5% $-366	+0% $-237	+5% $-108	+10% $21
Rate	-1.0pp $-48	-0.5pp $-142	base $-237	+0.5pp $-334	+1.0pp $-433

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,725
• Closing costs: $11,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2106 Grassy Hollow Dr Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.5	2022	$2,900	$1.43	20d	1	0.77mi
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,500	$2.48	0d	1	1.49mi
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,500	$2.48	15d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $239 · $2,868/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgymsecurity

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $374,900 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $374,900 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $374,900 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $374,900 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $374,900 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,900 Active 106 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,900 Active 105 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $374,900 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $374,900 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $374,900 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $374,900 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $374,900 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $374,900 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $374,900 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $374,900 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $374,900 1564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1564 chars)

    Are you looking for a 1599 SQ. FT. home in Lake Ridge with ''Split Bedrooms'' meaning one on each end of the house? Then look no further, this house is for you! THIS Lovely Barrington II model is on a PREMIUM LOT and IS LOCATED ''Up On the Hill'' with ONLY ONE OWNER! Hurry, this home will not last. NEWER ROOF, FURNACE, A/C AND HOT WATER HEATER. The Entry Foyer has tile floors that lead to a LOVELY LIVING ROOM/DINING ROOM COMBO with Cathedral Ceilings and Recessed Lights that offer an OPEN FLOOR PLAN PLUS a BONUS SUNROOM/DEN with a ceiling fan. This is a SUNNY HOME! The Eat In Kitchen is perfect with a Tile Backsplash, Crown Molding and a ONE OF A KIND TILE FLOOR. The Primary Suite has a Ceiling Fan, Two Double Closets PLUS A WALK IN CLOSET and an ENSUITE BATH WITH A DOUBLE STALL SHOWER. The Guest Bedroom has a BAY WINDOW which is perfect for Natural Light, Crown Molding and Ceiling Fan. The Guest Bath has a TUB. There are Bonus GLUE DOWN HARDWOOD FLOORS in the Hallway. The Direct Entry garage has pull down stairs for ADDITIONAL ATTIC STORAGE. Highly Desired Lake Ridge is a Gated Active Adult Community which offers LOW HOA FEES, LOW TAXES, a heated indoor pool which is open all year, an outdoor pool, a fitness center, tennis and pickleball courts, mat yoga and chair yoga, bowling, bridge, bocce, dance, mahjongg, card rooms, billiards room, social room, library, community bus for shopping, many social clubs, multiday travel club, so much more and something for everyone. TRULY A MUST SEE HOME. COME JOIN US AND HAVE FUN! Don't miss out!

17. 2026-05-15
    price $374 1564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1564 chars)

    Are you looking for a 1599 SQ. FT. home in Lake Ridge with ''Split Bedrooms'' meaning one on each end of the house? Then look no further, this house is for you! THIS Lovely Barrington II model is on a PREMIUM LOT and IS LOCATED ''Up On the Hill'' with ONLY ONE OWNER! Hurry, this home will not last. NEWER ROOF, FURNACE, A/C AND HOT WATER HEATER. The Entry Foyer has tile floors that lead to a LOVELY LIVING ROOM/DINING ROOM COMBO with Cathedral Ceilings and Recessed Lights that offer an OPEN FLOOR PLAN PLUS a BONUS SUNROOM/DEN with a ceiling fan. This is a SUNNY HOME! The Eat In Kitchen is perfect with a Tile Backsplash, Crown Molding and a ONE OF A KIND TILE FLOOR. The Primary Suite has a Ceiling Fan, Two Double Closets PLUS A WALK IN CLOSET and an ENSUITE BATH WITH A DOUBLE STALL SHOWER. The Guest Bedroom has a BAY WINDOW which is perfect for Natural Light, Crown Molding and Ceiling Fan. The Guest Bath has a TUB. There are Bonus GLUE DOWN HARDWOOD FLOORS in the Hallway. The Direct Entry garage has pull down stairs for ADDITIONAL ATTIC STORAGE. Highly Desired Lake Ridge is a Gated Active Adult Community which offers LOW HOA FEES, LOW TAXES, a heated indoor pool which is open all year, an outdoor pool, a fitness center, tennis and pickleball courts, mat yoga and chair yoga, bowling, bridge, bocce, dance, mahjongg, card rooms, billiards room, social room, library, community bus for shopping, many social clubs, multiday travel club, so much more and something for everyone. TRULY A MUST SEE HOME. COME JOIN US AND HAVE FUN! Don't miss out!

18. 2026-02-27
    listed $390,000 Active 1564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1564 chars)

    Are you looking for a 1599 SQ. FT. home in Lake Ridge with ''Split Bedrooms'' meaning one on each end of the house? Then look no further, this house is for you! THIS Lovely Barrington II model is on a PREMIUM LOT and IS LOCATED ''Up On the Hill'' with ONLY ONE OWNER! Hurry, this home will not last. NEWER ROOF, FURNACE, A/C AND HOT WATER HEATER. The Entry Foyer has tile floors that lead to a LOVELY LIVING ROOM/DINING ROOM COMBO with Cathedral Ceilings and Recessed Lights that offer an OPEN FLOOR PLAN PLUS a BONUS SUNROOM/DEN with a ceiling fan. This is a SUNNY HOME! The Eat In Kitchen is perfect with a Tile Backsplash, Crown Molding and a ONE OF A KIND TILE FLOOR. The Primary Suite has a Ceiling Fan, Two Double Closets PLUS A WALK IN CLOSET and an ENSUITE BATH WITH A DOUBLE STALL SHOWER. The Guest Bedroom has a BAY WINDOW which is perfect for Natural Light, Crown Molding and Ceiling Fan. The Guest Bath has a TUB. There are Bonus GLUE DOWN HARDWOOD FLOORS in the Hallway. The Direct Entry garage has pull down stairs for ADDITIONAL ATTIC STORAGE. Highly Desired Lake Ridge is a Gated Active Adult Community which offers LOW HOA FEES, LOW TAXES, a heated indoor pool which is open all year, an outdoor pool, a fitness center, tennis and pickleball courts, mat yoga and chair yoga, bowling, bridge, bocce, dance, mahjongg, card rooms, billiards room, social room, library, community bus for shopping, many social clubs, multiday travel club, so much more and something for everyone. TRULY A MUST SEE HOME. COME JOIN US AND HAVE FUN! Don't miss out!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,468 · $456/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,402 · $617/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,933/yr (+$161/mo · 35.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,000
• − Property taxes: −$5,468
• − Insurance: −$1,874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,135
• − Management: −$3,135
• − HOA: −$2,868
• − Depreciation: −$10,906
• Taxable loss: −$9,201
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,208
• After-tax cash flow: $-638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-3.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $374,900 MOMLS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $374 MOMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $390,000 MOMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,468 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.