2656 S Woodloch St · Woodloch, TX 77385

$146,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,306 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1974 0.34 ac lot Est $284k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained and hard to come by ranch style home located on 1/3 acre lot with mature trees. As you enter into the home, you will be greeted by a built-in nook. Hard floors throughout the home makes for a clean look with easy maintenance. Just around the corner your spacious living area awaits with a wood burning fireplace and additional lighting. The space flows into the kitchen with a pass-through opening. The kitchen offers and abundance of custom, soft close cabinets, SS appliances & a walk-in pantry. Just off the living room/kitchen you will find a spacious formal dining room. This versatile space could also be used as a study. Spacious primary bedroom with en-suite bath. The primary bathroom is a blank canvas ready for you to complete with many of the materials avail. Large utility room with access to your extended private patio. Double wide driveway with spacious 2 car garage. Exterior & interior paint -2019. 5-ton A/C unit- 2019. Schedule your viewing today!

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Entry on one level (first floor rooms noted)
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1974
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (approx. 14 x 19)
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; 6 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (5.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Recommended offer: $137k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.9% in Woodloch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#653 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oak Ridge H S (math 48% / reading 62%, grade C, #373 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 2,672 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 316 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $146k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,365 (5.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.59%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,638
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2535 River Rdg	0.09mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,301 (-0%)	0mo	$274,900	$119	88
2652 S Woodloch St	0.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,322 (+1%)	5mo	$199,900	$86	86
2664 S Woodloch St	0.08mi	3/2.0	2,260 (-2%)	12mo	$244,900	$108	83
2682 S Woodloch St	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,252 (-2%)	13mo	$250,000	$111	69
2554 River Rdg	0.14mi	3/2.0	2,547 (+10%)	11mo	$159,000	$62	67
2687 S Woodloch St	0.29mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,463 (+7%)	2mo	$189,900	$77	66
2524 River Rdg	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,990 (-14%)	3mo	$260,000	$131	66
10158 N Whimbrel Cir	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,284 (-1%)	1mo	$316,000	$138	60
10190 N Whimbrel Cir	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,254 (-2%)	1mo	$317,000	$141	54
16325 Olive Sparrow Dr	0.43mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,510 (+9%)	13mo	$309,500	$123	46
10127 N Whimbrel Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,981 (-14%)	13mo	$295,000	$149	39
10035 S Whimbrel Cir	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,491 (+8%)	15mo	$320,000	$128	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-31,956
• Equity at exit: $21,769

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-31,616
• Equity at exit: $12,623

Cash invested: $40,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77385

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 316
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$766
• Tax from tax record: −$572 /mo · $6,868/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,311

Max offer price $137,365

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,500
• Closing costs: $4,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2657 S Woodloch St Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1920	$1,910	$0.99	11d	1	0.02mi
2662 S Woodloch St Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	2046	$1,960	$0.96	14d	1	0.07mi
9952 Swallow Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	3136	$2,180	$0.70	17d	1	0.77mi
16782 N Thrasher Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2137	$2,065	$0.97	14d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $146,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $146,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $146,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $146,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $146,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $146,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $146,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 525-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $146,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $146,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 455-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $146,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,868 · $572/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,868 · $572/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,178
• − Property taxes: −$6,868
• − Insurance: −$5,848
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,014
• − Management: −$2,014
• − Depreciation: −$4,247
• Taxable loss: −$3,996
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$959
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Woodloch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #653
• US rank: #12310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodloch, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,156
• Household income: $117,118
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 471.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.09%
• Current HPI: 239.9434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.88%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+80.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $146,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-03-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-01-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-01-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-12-30 Price Changed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-05 Price Changed $280,500 HARMLS
• 2022-10-03 Listed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2022-10-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-09-27 Price Changed $295,500 HARMLS
• 2022-09-19 Price Changed $299,300 HARMLS
• 2022-08-31 Price Changed $301,500 HARMLS
• 2022-08-22 Price Changed $307,500 HARMLS
• 2022-08-01 Price Changed $314,500 HARMLS
• 2022-07-21 Listed $319,500 HARMLS
• 2016-01-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 2013-02-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-09-23 Listed $81,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,868 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.