21575 Bluebonnet Bay Dr · Magnolia, TX 77354

$409,900

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,594 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 5,933 sqft lot $158/sqft · 28% below area Est $567k · 28% under $40/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Whether you're catching up on your favorite shows, hosting friends, or enjoying a little friendly competition, the Driftwood plan at Magnolia Woods is designed to be the ultimate place to unwind. With both relaxation and connection in mind, this home features two distinct living spaces for everyone to enjoy. Downstairs, an open family room flows into the dining area, creating a seamless space for entertaining. Upstairs, a spacious game room offers the perfect spot for movie nights, playtime, or relaxing. Even better, this home is on one of the best lots in the community with a beautiful backyard view and no rear neighbors, offering added privacy and a peaceful setting. The Driftwood also includes LGI Homes’ CompleteHome Plus™ package, featuring an upgraded kitchen, energy efficient features, and smart home conveniences, all designed for comfort and long term value.

Key facts

• 5,933 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-539 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1621 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $41k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$70k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,463 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.63%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $567,184
• List price: $409,900
• Delta: -27.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5632 Marigold Mile Dr	0.19mi	5/3.0	2,348 (-10%)	1mo	$519,900	$221	72
5621 Marigold Mile Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,388 (-8%)	2mo	$568,900	$238	69
5607 Marigold Mile Dr	0.19mi	5/3.0	2,348 (-10%)	9mo	$499,900	$213	66
109 Magnolia Reserve Loop	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,605 (+0%)	10mo	$562,500	$216	64
144 Magnolia Reserve Loop	0.45mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,643 (+2%)	12mo	$549,000	$208	60
152 Magnolia Reserve Loop	0.45mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,628 (+1%)	22mo	$598,700	$228	54
21694 Magnolia Hills Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,317 (-11%)	9mo	$430,000	$186	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $181,250
• Equity at exit: $369,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.76×
• Total profit: $546,780
• Equity at exit: $796,346

Cash invested: $114,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1621
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,955 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$512 /mo · $6,148/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-539

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,636

Max offer price $331,968

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-255	-5% $-397	+0% $-539	+5% $-680	+10% $-822
Rent	-10% $-772	-5% $-655	+0% $-539	+5% $-422	+10% $-305
Rate	-1.0pp $-332	-0.5pp $-434	base $-539	+0.5pp $-645	+1.0pp $-753

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,475
• Closing costs: $12,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21619 Bluebonnet Bay Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1911	$3,015	$1.58	2d	1	0.10mi
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	20d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 895-char remark

   Show marketing remark (895 chars)

   Whether you're catching up on your favorite shows, hosting friends, or enjoying a little friendly competition, the Driftwood plan at Magnolia Woods is designed to be the ultimate place to unwind. With both relaxation and connection in mind, this home features two distinct living spaces for everyone to enjoy. Downstairs, an open family room flows into the dining area, creating a seamless space for entertaining. Upstairs, a spacious game room offers the perfect spot for movie nights, playtime, or relaxing. Even better, this home is on one of the best lots in the community with a beautiful backyard view and no rear neighbors, offering added privacy and a peaceful setting. The Driftwood also includes LGI Homes’ CompleteHome Plus™ package, featuring an upgraded kitchen, energy efficient features, and smart home conveniences, all designed for comfort and long term value.

2. 2026-04-10
   listed $409,900 Active 895-char remark

   Show marketing remark (895 chars)

   Whether you're catching up on your favorite shows, hosting friends, or enjoying a little friendly competition, the Driftwood plan at Magnolia Woods is designed to be the ultimate place to unwind. With both relaxation and connection in mind, this home features two distinct living spaces for everyone to enjoy. Downstairs, an open family room flows into the dining area, creating a seamless space for entertaining. Upstairs, a spacious game room offers the perfect spot for movie nights, playtime, or relaxing. Even better, this home is on one of the best lots in the community with a beautiful backyard view and no rear neighbors, offering added privacy and a peaceful setting. The Driftwood also includes LGI Homes’ CompleteHome Plus™ package, featuring an upgraded kitchen, energy efficient features, and smart home conveniences, all designed for comfort and long term value.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,961
• − Property taxes: −$6,148
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,836
• − Management: −$2,836
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$11,924
• Taxable loss: −$13,780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,307
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $409,900 HARMLS