631 South St · Utica, NY 13501

$174,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1930 5,600 sqft lot Est $184k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 5,600 sq ft lot
• 4 garage spots
• Built 1930

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 4-car garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story property; Vinyl siding; Resale condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Block foundation; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 56 x 100

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (1 on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Electric and gas heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate formal living room; Combined living/dining area; Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Electric and gas water heaters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Utica City School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #562 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.20%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1036 Morris St	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,504 (+4%)	11mo	$149,400	$99	75
1135 Mc Quade Ave	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,370 (-5%)	11mo	$160,000	$117	65
1204 Neilson St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,400 (-3%)	12mo	$62,000	$44	59
1129 Hilton Ave	0.66mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	5mo	$185,400	$138	49
528 Jefferson Ave	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (+5%)	4mo	$100,000	$66	49
715 Catherine St	0.58mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,340 (-7%)	8mo	$75,000	$56	48
1105 South St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,344 (-7%)	12mo	$140,000	$104	48
1525 Saint Vincent St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,320 (-8%)	15mo	$195,700	$148	41
1155 Jefferson Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,604 (+11%)	16mo	$224,900	$140	37
1130 Hilton Ave	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,252 (-13%)	18mo	$160,000	$128	34
1214 Hillview Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-13%)	14mo	$185,000	$148	33
906 Arthur St	0.70mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	13mo	$195,000	$156	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $109,873
• Equity at exit: $156,753

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.40×
• Total profit: $311,747
• Equity at exit: $338,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13501

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,817 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,895/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,517

Max offer price $174,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1124 Dudley Ave Unit 1 Utica, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	43d	1	0.37mi
807 Eagle St Utica, NY	3.0	1.0	1526	$1,300	$0.85	43d	1	0.39mi
221 Elizabeth St #2 Utica, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	44d	1	0.63mi
239 Genesee St Utica, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1200	$2,700	$2.25	43d	15	0.76mi
119 Hotel St Utica, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1053	$2,300	$2.18	43d	14	0.82mi
11 Noyes St Unit 4 Utica, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,125	$1.12	43d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $174,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,895 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,418 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$523/yr (+$44/mo · 27.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$1,895
• − Insurance: −$1,536
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,744
• − Management: −$1,744
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable income: $73
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18
• After-tax cash flow: $2,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica City School District
• NCES district ID: 3629370
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,834
• Composite: 29.01/100
• National rank: #6613
• State rank: #562 of 590 in NY

Livability — Utica

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1589

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Utica, NY
• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 72,968
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,931
• Household income: $52,548
• Rent vs Own: 49.2% rent · 50.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2251.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 14% Asian 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: American 8% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 10% Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.28%
• Current HPI: 382.3726
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+357.9% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $174,000 CNYIS
• 2024-10-25 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2024-10-08 Price Changed $150,000 CNYIS
• 2024-08-05 Listed $170,000 CNYIS
• 2024-06-25 Sold (MLS) $140,000 CNYIS
• 2024-05-07 Pending — CNYIS
• 2024-05-05 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2024-04-11 Price Changed $149,999 CNYIS
• 2024-03-25 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2024-03-19 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2024-03-10 Listed $159,000 CNYIS
• 2022-07-11 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2022-06-11 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2022-06-06 Listed $129,900 CNYIS
• 2021-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-19 Sold (MLS) $75,000 CNYIS
• 2020-10-20 Listed $79,900 CNYIS
• 2019-05-24 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2018-09-24 Listed $75,500 CNYIS
• 2004-11-03 Sold (MLS) $29,000 CNYIS
• 2004-09-21 Listed $34,900 CNYIS
• 1999-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,895 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.