515 W South 10th St · Shelbyville, IL 62565

$59,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Other public records · 341 Days on market

Built 1900 5,000 sqft lot $81/sqft · at area comps Est $62k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has been updated with fresh paint, new flooring, some new drywall, some newer windows and a completely remodeled bath. The home has a living room, kitchen with washer/dryer hookup, two bedrooms and a bath. If y ou seen it before the transformation!!!! You need to take a look again!!

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 341 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($824 rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 5.0% in Shelbyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#355 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Shelbyville CUSD 4 (town): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #225 of 620 in IL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 41 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 341 days — a 12% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $51,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 341 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.98%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $61,784
• List price: $59,000
• Delta: -4.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $9,689
• Equity at exit: $8,797

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $33,157
• Equity at exit: $5,101

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62565

• Home prices YoY: -11.6%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $824 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$15 /mo · $175/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $441

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $336	-5% $319	+0% $303	+5% $286	+10% $269
Rent	-10% $237	-5% $270	+0% $303	+5% $335	+10% $368
Rate	-1.0pp $332	-0.5pp $318	base $303	+0.5pp $287	+1.0pp $272

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $59,000 Active 341 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 339 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 338 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 337 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 336 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 334 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,000 Active 333 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 330 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,000 Active 329 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,000 Active 328 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $59,000 Active 324 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,000 Active 323 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,000 Active 322 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,000 Active 321 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,000 Active 320 DOM
16. 2026-01-21
    price $59,000 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    This home has been updated with fresh paint, new flooring, some new drywall, some newer windows and a completely remodeled bath. The home has a living room, kitchen with washer/dryer hookup, two bedrooms and a bath. If y ou seen it before the transformation!!!! You need to take a look again!!

17. 2025-07-14
    listed $45,000 Active 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    This home has been updated with fresh paint, new flooring, some new drywall, some newer windows and a completely remodeled bath. The home has a living room, kitchen with washer/dryer hookup, two bedrooms and a bath. If y ou seen it before the transformation!!!! You need to take a look again!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $175 · $15/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $757 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$582/yr (+$49/mo · 333.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$175
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$791
• − Management: −$791
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $2,817
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$676
• After-tax cash flow: $2,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelbyville CUSD 4
• NCES district ID: 1736090
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $44,461
• Composite: 28.1/100
• National rank: #6827
• State rank: #225 of 620 in IL

Livability — Shelbyville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #355
• US rank: #7321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelbyville, IL
• City population: 7,422
• Population (ZIP): 7,422

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,512 people
• By 2030: 19,675 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 17,851 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 15,973 · -22.1%
• By 2075: 11,799 · -42.5%
• By 2100: 8,030 · -60.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 19.2% · R 79.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.5pp toward R · 2008: -19.8pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+57.2 2016: R+54.3 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+19.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.35%
• Current HPI: 178.3002
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+31.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $59,000 CIBR
• 2025-07-14 Listed $45,000 CIBR

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $175 · +26.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.