3431 S Pacific Hwy Spc 38 · Medford, OR 97501

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 938 sqft · Land public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1977

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Glenwood Mobile Home Park is 55+ park with a clubhouse, swimming pool, and numerous social activities. Enjoy the peaceful that surrounds this charming 2-bedroom 2 bath home. The kitchen is light and bright and includes the fridge, dishwasher, and oven. There is a large yard and covered carport.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Open floor plan
• Attached carport

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• SPACIOUS YARD
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• SPACIOUS PORCH
• HVAC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: May remain in park
• Financial info: Monthly land lease
• HOA & community: Located in a senior community; CC&Rs apply

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Driveway
• Security: Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Mobile home located in a park; Single-wide; One level; Built in 1977; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Membrane roof; Single-wide manufactured home (Mariette)
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Landscaped; Level lot; Shed(s); Double-pane windows; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Oven; Range; Range hood; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (including primary downstairs)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Primary bedroom located downstairs; Shower/tub combo; Bonus room; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 43.3% vs local median 2.8% in Medford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#78 in OR, #3,467 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Phoenix-Talent SD 4 (suburban): math 14% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #58 of 58 in OR (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Orchard Hill Elementary School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #320 of 412 statewide, top 82%, 345 students, 78% FRL); Talent Middle School (math 10% / reading 33%, grade F, #122 of 128 statewide, top 95%, 473 students, 79% FRL); Phoenix High School (math 24% / reading 70%, grade D-, #56 of 143 statewide, top 41%, 700 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 60% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $35k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,475 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 132.20%
• DSCR: 6.88
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.36×
• Total profit: $62,327
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.26×
• Total profit: $139,714
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97501

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,646 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $274/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $1,080

Break-even live

Break-even rent $280

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
168 Northridge Ter Medford, OR	2.0	1.5	950	$1,600	$1.68	21d	1	0.62mi
204 Cheryl Ln Unit J Phoenix, OR	2.0	1.5	1008	$1,350	$1.34	44d	1	1.02mi
310 Independence Cir Apt D Phoenix, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,595	$1.88	13d	1	1.26mi
110 6th St Phoenix, OR	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,895	$1.82	21d	1	1.29mi
110 6th St Phoenix, OR	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,895	$1.82	13d	1	1.29mi
1001 Olympic Ave Medford, OR	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,795	$1.63	44d	1	1.35mi
3007 Juanipero Way Unit 3007 Medford, OR	3.0	1.0	988	$1,595	$1.61	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $35,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 687-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $35,000 Active 20 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $274 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $340 · $28/mo
• Expected delta: +$65/yr (+$5/mo · 23.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$274
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,580
• − Management: −$1,580
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $13,167
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,160
• After-tax cash flow: $9,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix-Talent SD 4
• NCES district ID: 4109630
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $38,625
• Composite: 19.24/100
• National rank: #8809
• State rank: #58 of 58 in OR

Livability — Medford

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #3467

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 95,759
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 44,670
• Household income: $63,977
• Rent vs Own: 45.6% rent · 54.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1799.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 16% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.31%
• Current HPI: 248.6495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+159.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $35,000 MLSCO
• 2026-06-16 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2026-03-12 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2026-03-04 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-03-04 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2026-02-12 Listed $40,000 MLSCO
• 2020-01-10 Sold (MLS) $18,500 MLSCO
• 2019-11-15 Listed $23,000 MLSCO
• 2010-12-28 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2010-11-23 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2010-11-23 Listed $13,500 MLSCO
• 2010-02-16 Listed $13,500 MLSCO

Property tax history

+12.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $274 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.