738 Thea Mdws · Marion, TX 78124

$220,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily · 43 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot $140/sqft · 20% below area Est $275k · 20% under $92/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $221k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (18.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 408 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $169,500 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.43%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,018
• List price: $220,999
• Delta: -19.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
721 Thea Mdws	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,575 (0%)	2mo	$223,999	$142	99
705 Thea Mdws	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	1mo	$219,999	$137	97
746 Thea Mdws	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	1mo	$219,999	$137	97
2219 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+6%)	1mo	$216,999	$130	89
135 Petey Pl	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (+5%)	2mo	$253,999	$153	85
701 Thea Mdws	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,575 (0%)	1mo	$240,999	$153	78
713 Thea Mdws	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	1mo	$230,999	$165	76
111 Petey Pl	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,795 (+14%)	1mo	$263,999	$147	72
127 Petey Pl	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,795 (+14%)	1mo	$268,999	$150	72
2760 Pioneer Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-6%)	1mo	$250,000	$170	62
121 Lost Pines Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,658 (+5%)	1mo	$315,000	$190	59
175 Lost Maples Way	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,407 (-11%)	2mo	$289,900	$206	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-53,577
• Equity at exit: $32,952

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-69,302
• Equity at exit: $19,108

Cash invested: $61,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,695 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,159
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$276 /mo · $3,315/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $-280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,050

Max offer price $180,450

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,250
• Closing costs: $6,630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 W Schulz St Marion, TX	3.0	1.5	1109	$1,695	$1.53	4d	1	0.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-04-30
   price $220,999 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-04-28
   price $222,999 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-04-18
   price $226,999 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-04-09
   price $231,999 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

6. 2026-04-03
   price $233,999 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

7. 2026-03-31
   price $237,999 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

8. 2026-03-28
   price $239,999 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

9. 2026-03-24
   listed $242,999 New 579-char remark

   Show marketing remark (579 chars)

   The Sentosa - This new home offers simple living with a convenient single-level layout. An open-concept floorplan combines the kitchen, living and dining areas for simple entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, and the owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner, offering access to a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,379
• − Property taxes: −$3,315
• − Insurance: −$1,105
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,627
• − Management: −$1,627
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$6,429
• Taxable loss: −$7,247
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,739
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,623/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new single-family home offers a modern and well-maintained interior with a spacious floor plan. The exterior is in excellent condition, and the property is located in a desirable area with ample greenery. The home is move-in ready and ready for a new owner to make it their own.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhanced landscaping can improve both the resale and rental value.
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both the resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhanced landscaping can improve both the resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase both the resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829100
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,465
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3867
• State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marion

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion, TX
• City population: 144,962
• Population (ZIP): 6,907

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $220,999 LERA
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $222,999 LERA
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $226,999 LERA
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $231,999 LERA
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $233,999 LERA
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $237,999 LERA
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $239,999 LERA
• 2026-03-24 Listed $242,999 LERA