1821 Circulo Mexicali Ct · Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$249,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,509 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2025 0.27 ac lot Est $270k · 7% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful new-build home offering 1,509 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a den. Nestled in a private, peaceful setting with breathtaking mountain views, this property provides the perfect blend of modern comfort and natural beauty. With limited neighboring homes, you can enjoy the privacy, tranquility, and open space that are hard to find.

Key facts

• Open space
• New-build home
• Private setting

Tags

• NEW-BUILD HOME
• BREATHTAKING MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• PRIVATE SETTING
• LIMITED NEIGHBORING HOMES
• OPEN SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned SCC - R-3

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Water from water company; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; West-facing
• Construction: Frame with stucco exterior; Stucco finish; Shingle roof; Built area approximately 1,509
• Exterior features: Slab patio/porch; Corner lot; Subdivided lot; Paved road access; City-maintained road; Lot irregularly shaped

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Electric range
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-294 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (17.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (27.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: San Cayetano Elementary School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #810 of 1,109 statewide, top 73%, 393 students, 69% FRL); Coatimundi Middle School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #109 of 218 statewide, top 51%, 473 students, 69% FRL); Rio Rico High School (math 13% / reading 21%, grade F, #252 of 381 statewide, top 67%, 1,414 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 410 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $181,459 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.04%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $270,111
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1832 Via Nevada	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+1%)	2mo	$265,000	$173	88
144 Calle Victoria	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,585 (+5%)	1mo	$255,000	$161	82
1866 Circulo Girasol	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,368 (-9%)	3mo	$230,000	$168	70
1868 Atajo Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-7%)	2mo	$265,000	$189	68
1796 Ariosto Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+9%)	0mo	$269,000	$163	68
1848 Rosalia Ct	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,357 (-10%)	2mo	$258,000	$190	68
1847 Circulo Glorieta	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,665 (+10%)	1mo	$287,500	$173	64
1851 Tijuana Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-14%)	2mo	$237,000	$182	61
127 Via Venezuela	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-8%)	3mo	$250,000	$179	61
1847 Silver Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-14%)	2mo	$245,000	$188	57
241 Cereza Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,621 (+7%)	3mo	$310,000	$191	56
101 Habana Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-8%)	3mo	$250,000	$179	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $117,448
• Equity at exit: $225,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.15×
• Total profit: $360,653
• Equity at exit: $485,693

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85648

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 410
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,815 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $-294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $207,433

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1859 Tijuana Ct Rio Rico, AZ	2.0	2.0	1233	$1,600	$1.30	1d	1	0.30mi
1878 Circulo Girasol Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,700	$1.07	1d	1	0.36mi
125 Alemania Ct Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,500	$1.12	10d	1	0.44mi
117 Vereda Patria Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1567	$2,500	$1.60	1d	1	0.76mi
73 Vereda Patria Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1879	$1,750	$0.93	1d	1	1.20mi
1808 Cajeme Ct Rio Rico, AZ	4.0	2.0	1725	$1,850	$1.07	1d	1	1.24mi
1731 Avenida Pastor Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,800	$1.15	1d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,999 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,999 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,999 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,999 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 408-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $249,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,775
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,742
• − Management: −$1,742
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$7,985
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,917
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,613/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Rico

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rico, AZ
• County: Santa Cruz County · 22,118 people
• City population: 22,118
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,118
• Household income: $61,519
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 48% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.18%
• Current HPI: 415.2167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $249,999 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $259,999 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $265,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-23 Listed $269,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-01-22 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $270,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $279,500 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $284,999 MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $289,999 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-29 Listed $299,999 MLSSAZ