1476 Route 38 #8 · Vincentown, NJ 08036

$69,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily · 198 Days on market

Built 1978 ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This is a nice two-bedroom, one-bath mobile home that has been freshly painted. It features a sunroom and deck and is located in a small park community. Make an appointment today!

Key facts

• Sunroom
• Deck
• Built 1978

Tags

• SUNROOM
• DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in a mobile home park (Goss Mobile Home Park)

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric for cooling
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single wide mobile home; Estimated year built
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Located in Goss Mobile Home Park; Above-grade other structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating (leased); Wall unit cooling; Propane hot water
• Interior features: Tub with shower; Open floor plan; Screened porch
• Laundry & utility: Main floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.6% vs local median 4.5% in Vincentown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hainesport Township School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #205 of 472 in NJ (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $949 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $61,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 72.48%
• DSCR: 4.22
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $311,040
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1476 Route 38 #3	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	720 (0%)	6mo	$88,000	$122	90
9 Spruce Ln	0.60mi	2/1.0	672 (-7%)	1mo	$290,000	$432	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 73.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.52×
• Total profit: $68,936
• Equity at exit: $15,679

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.26×
• Total profit: $161,661
• Equity at exit: $15,467

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08036

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,108 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $1,182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 193 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 189 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 188 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $69,900 Active 184 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,900 Active 183 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,900 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,900 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,900 Active 180 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    price $79,900
15. 2026-04-08
    price $84,900
16. 2026-02-16
    price $89,900
17. 2025-12-09
    status Active
18. 2025-11-25
    historical
19. 2025-10-29
    historical
20. 2025-10-22
    listed $95,000 Active
21. 2025-06-11
    price $99,000
22. 2025-05-27
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,024
• − Management: −$2,024
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $13,900
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,336
• After-tax cash flow: $10,849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hainesport Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3406420
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $88,435
• Composite: 38.07/100
• National rank: #4283
• State rank: #205 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vincentown

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,028

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Asian 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.36%
• Current HPI: 302.0676
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-33.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $79,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $84,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-09 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-22 Listed $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $99,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-27 Listed $120,000 BRIGHT MLS