50937 Canyon · Morongo Valley, CA 92256

$200,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,125 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1958 1.25 ac lot $178/sqft · 41% below area Est $340k · 41% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity in the serene rural community of Morongo Valley! Situated on a spacious lot, this property offers endless potential for the right buyer looking to rebuild. The home experienced fire damage and is being sold as-is, making it an ideal for you to create the perfect home. Surrounded by wide-open spaces and natural desert beauty, this location is perfect for those seeking privacy. Near many amenities including Joshua National Park. Don't miss out.

Key facts

• Privacy
• Spacious lot
• Joshua national park

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• NATURAL DESERT BEAUTY
• PRIVACY
• NEAR AMENITIES
• JOSHUA NATIONAL PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-254/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.1% in Morongo Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#505 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,065 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.45%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $339,676
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -41.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9892 Fobes	0.49mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,182 (+5%)	6mo	$349,000	$295	59
51055 Canyon Rd	0.16mi	2/1.0 (+1)	968 (-14%)	21mo	$208,000	$215	47
10091 Fobes Rd	0.67mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,046 (-7%)	9mo	$210,000	$201	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $51,847
• Equity at exit: $120,783

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $155,101
• Equity at exit: $214,888

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92256

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,871 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$367 /mo · $4,402/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,897

Max offer price $196,258

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $92	-5% $35	+0% $-21	+5% $-78	+10% $-134
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-95	+0% $-21	+5% $53	+10% $127
Rate	-1.0pp $80	-0.5pp $30	base $-21	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-03-24
    listed $200,000 Active 464-char remark

    Show marketing remark (464 chars)

    Great opportunity in the serene rural community of Morongo Valley! Situated on a spacious lot, this property offers endless potential for the right buyer looking to rebuild. The home experienced fire damage and is being sold as-is, making it an ideal for you to create the perfect home. Surrounded by wide-open spaces and natural desert beauty, this location is perfect for those seeking privacy. Near many amenities including Joshua National Park. Don't miss out.

17. 2019-09-27
    soldstatus $170,000 Closed Sale 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Check out this charming 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms ranch home! recently upgraded and remolded to give it a modern look! Beautiful open floor living room with newly installed windows and new laminated wood flooring through out the kitchen and living room, upgraded kitchen with brand new stainless steel appliance, new cabinets, granite counter tops, nice size bedrooms with new carpet flooring, sliding mirror closets, newly full size remodeled bathrooms with all new fixtures, and upgrades. This lovely home is a must see to appreciate all the additional features outside

18. 2019-09-26
    soldstatus $170,000
19. 2019-08-22
    status Pending Sale 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Check out this charming 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms ranch home! recently upgraded and remolded to give it a modern look! Beautiful open floor living room with newly installed windows and new laminated wood flooring through out the kitchen and living room, upgraded kitchen with brand new stainless steel appliance, new cabinets, granite counter tops, nice size bedrooms with new carpet flooring, sliding mirror closets, newly full size remodeled bathrooms with all new fixtures, and upgrades. This lovely home is a must see to appreciate all the additional features outside

20. 2019-08-06
    price $184,999 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Check out this charming 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms ranch home! recently upgraded and remolded to give it a modern look! Beautiful open floor living room with newly installed windows and new laminated wood flooring through out the kitchen and living room, upgraded kitchen with brand new stainless steel appliance, new cabinets, granite counter tops, nice size bedrooms with new carpet flooring, sliding mirror closets, newly full size remodeled bathrooms with all new fixtures, and upgrades. This lovely home is a must see to appreciate all the additional features outside

21. 2019-06-26
    price $189,900 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Check out this charming 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms ranch home! recently upgraded and remolded to give it a modern look! Beautiful open floor living room with newly installed windows and new laminated wood flooring through out the kitchen and living room, upgraded kitchen with brand new stainless steel appliance, new cabinets, granite counter tops, nice size bedrooms with new carpet flooring, sliding mirror closets, newly full size remodeled bathrooms with all new fixtures, and upgrades. This lovely home is a must see to appreciate all the additional features outside

22. 2019-05-06
    price $195,500 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Check out this charming 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms ranch home! recently upgraded and remolded to give it a modern look! Beautiful open floor living room with newly installed windows and new laminated wood flooring through out the kitchen and living room, upgraded kitchen with brand new stainless steel appliance, new cabinets, granite counter tops, nice size bedrooms with new carpet flooring, sliding mirror closets, newly full size remodeled bathrooms with all new fixtures, and upgrades. This lovely home is a must see to appreciate all the additional features outside

23. 2019-04-02
    listed $199,900 Active 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Check out this charming 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms ranch home! recently upgraded and remolded to give it a modern look! Beautiful open floor living room with newly installed windows and new laminated wood flooring through out the kitchen and living room, upgraded kitchen with brand new stainless steel appliance, new cabinets, granite counter tops, nice size bedrooms with new carpet flooring, sliding mirror closets, newly full size remodeled bathrooms with all new fixtures, and upgrades. This lovely home is a must see to appreciate all the additional features outside

24. 2019-03-31
    historical
25. 2018-10-23
    price $209,900
26. 2018-10-08
    price $219,900
27. 2018-10-01
    price $229,900
28. 2018-09-18
    price $239,900
29. 2018-08-29
    listed $249,900 Active
30. 2018-01-22
    soldstatus $63,000 Closed Sale
31. 2018-01-04
    status Pending Sale
32. 2017-12-28
    status Active
33. 2017-11-27
    status Pending Sale
34. 2017-10-26
    listed $68,900 Active
35. 2003-01-13
    soldstatus $83,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,402 · $367/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,402 · $367/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone D · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,448
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,402
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,796
• − Management: −$1,796
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,567
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$856
• After-tax cash flow: $602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Morongo Valley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #17106

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living C- Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morongo Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,907

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 12% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 19% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.61%
• Current HPI: 526.1914
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+141.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $200,000 CRMLS
• 2019-09-27 Sold (MLS) $170,000 CRMLS
• 2019-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-22 Pending — CRMLS
• 2019-08-06 Price Changed $184,999 CRMLS
• 2019-06-26 Price Changed $189,900 CRMLS
• 2019-05-06 Price Changed $195,500 CRMLS
• 2019-04-02 Listed $199,900 CRMLS
• 2019-03-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2018-10-23 Price Changed $209,900 CRMLS
• 2018-10-08 Price Changed $219,900 CRMLS
• 2018-10-01 Price Changed $229,900 CRMLS
• 2018-09-18 Price Changed $239,900 CRMLS
• 2018-08-29 Listed $249,900 CRMLS
• 2018-01-22 Sold (MLS) $63,000 CRMLS
• 2018-01-04 Pending — CRMLS
• 2017-12-28 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2017-11-27 Pending — CRMLS
• 2017-10-26 Listed $68,900 CRMLS
• 2003-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,402 · +99.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.