9866 State Rd · North Boston, NY 14025

$230,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,735 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1850 3.60 ac lot $84/sqft · 49% below area Est $454k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Let’s move you into the country and into a home you can truly make your own. This farmhouse fixer-upper offers a great opportunity for someone ready to roll up their sleeves and bring their vision to life. A good portion of the work has already been started, including drywall, flooring, windows, and some plumbing updates. Set on over 3.5 acres with Eighteenmile Creek behind the property and no rear neighbors in sight, the setting offers privacy, space, and peaceful country surroundings. Formerly a multi-family home, the property is currently in the process of being converted back to a single family residence, giving buyers flexibility and plenty of potential to customize the layout to

Key facts

• Privacy
• No rear neighbors
• Over 3.5 acres

Tags

• OVER 3.5 ACRES
• EIGHTEENMILE CREEK
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• PRIVACY
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY SURROUNDINGS
• MULTI-FAMILY HOME

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 3.6 acres — rural and agricultural with irregular boundaries

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Open porch; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Varied flooring types
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Bathroom rough-in; Convertible bedroom; Main level primary bedroom; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-697 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (45.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (37.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (45.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 2.0% in North Boston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#988 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing A, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Springville-Griffith Institute Central School District (town): math 47% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #385 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $197k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $126,051 (45.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.98%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $453,897
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -49.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $80,847
• Equity at exit: $206,973

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.24×
• Total profit: $273,247
• Equity at exit: $446,102

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14025

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,431 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$525 /mo · $6,303/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $-697

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,313

Max offer price $126,051

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $230,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $230,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $230,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $230,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $230,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-05-11
   listed $230,000 Active 884-char remark
8. 2025-05-16
   soldstatus $196,646
9. 2019-07-12
   soldstatus $43,317
10. 2007-11-28
    soldstatus $168,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,303 · $525/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,303 · $525/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$6,303
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,374
• − Management: −$1,374
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$12,602
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,024
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springville-Griffith Institute Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612990
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $53,569
• Composite: 42.7/100
• National rank: #3170
• State rank: #385 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Boston

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #988
• US rank: #19330

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,445

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 28% Portuguese 3% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.99%
• Current HPI: 307.4336
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+16.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $196,646 Public Records
• 2019-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $43,317 Public Records
• 2007-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $168,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,303 · +52.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.