1403 Mill Rd · Elizabethtown, PA 17022

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1983

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Not exactly part of Lakeview MHP . .. but the rules follow. The beauty of this property is a very large and private lot that is partially wooded. A basement which is rare on rented land offers you options as well. Current owner has replaced the furnace, windows, roof, kitchen including appliances, walk in shower and more. Kitchen flooring is new LVP and owner will leave additional for the livingroom, hallway and first bedroom. While the home is older so much has been redone for peace of mind. All appliances stay some fresh paint in your color choice and you'll be ready to move in and relax surrounded by nature. Easy access to rt 283 and town

Key facts

• Replaced windows
• Basement
• Replaced furnace

Tags

• LARGE AND PRIVATE LOT
• PARTIALLY WOODED
• BASEMENT
• REPLACED FURNACE
• REPLACED WINDOWS
• REPLACED ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building not winterized; Pets allowed with breed and number restrictions
• HOA & community: Ground rent $660 monthly; Property manager present; Not in a federal flood zone

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt driveway with 2 spaces (total 2 garage/parking spaces)
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic and public sewer; 100 Amp electric service; Cable TV available; Propane
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Skyline model; 2021 major remodel; Good condition
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Rubber roof; Full unfinished basement with outside entrance; Double-pane replacement windows with screens
• Exterior features: Backs to trees; Ramp to main level (accessibility)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Wall unit cooling (electric)
• Interior features: Insulated and storm doors; Drywall and paneled walls
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main floor; Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $798 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 25.5% vs local median 3.1% in Elizabethtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#201 in PA, #1,759 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Elizabethtown Area SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #123 of 539 in PA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: East High Street El Sch (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #313 of 1,518 statewide, top 24%, 481 students, 46% FRL); Elizabethtown Area Shs (math 67% / reading 24%, grade D-, #183 of 437 statewide, top 43%, 1,249 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 22% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.54%
• DSCR: 4.05
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 71.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $47,891
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.7%
• Equity multiple: 10.30×
• Total profit: $129,877
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17022

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,405 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $351/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $798

Break-even live

Break-even rent $395

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
155 S Poplar St Elizabethtown, PA	1.0	1.0	636	$1,485	$2.33	13d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $351 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $570 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$219/yr (+$18/mo · 62.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,857
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$351
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,349
• − Management: −$1,349
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $9,312
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,235
• After-tax cash flow: $7,341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elizabethtown Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4209120
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $59,380
• Composite: 46.94/100
• National rank: #2361
• State rank: #123 of 539 in PA

Livability — Elizabethtown

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #201
• US rank: #1759

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 31,908
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 31,908
• Household income: $86,767
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1404.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.73%
• Current HPI: 266.3184
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.52%
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $49,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $351 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.