2127 Manoa Dr · Holiday, FL 34691

$146,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1980 3,700 sqft lot Est $120k · 22% over $63/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nicely updated 2-bedroom, 2 bath home where you own the land! This beautiful and recently updated 2-bedroom home has a newer open kitchen, updated baths, newer plank floors. The kitchen was remodeled in 2022, with shaker cabinets, appliances including dishwasher, ceiling fans and recessed lights. There is tile backsplash, a large stainless steel kitchen sink, garbage disposal and custom counter tops. The hall bath is updated with a newer and taller vanity and has tiled floors. The home has crown molding and many exterior storm shutters. It also has a total of 5 ceiling fans and the central air and heat unit replaced in 2022. It has vapor barrier and a screened porch area. There is a Florida

Key facts

• Tiled floors
• Florida room
• Screened porch

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• TILED FLOORS
• CROWN MOLDING
• STORM SHUTTERS
• SCREENED PORCH
• FLORIDA ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community directions: From US Highway 19 go west at Bonita Road for several blocks to the gate of Lake Conley Mobile Home Park
• Financial info: Total monthly fees approximately $63.41; Total annual fees approximately $760.92; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $63.41); Association amenities include clubhouse, gated access, laundry, maintenance, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court, storage, lobby key required; Association approval required; Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Senior community; Pets allowed with restrictions (cats OK, dogs OK; weight limit 25 lbs; breed/number/size limits apply)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Sprinkler well
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; Faces east
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Roof over; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Hurricane shutters; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Lake access (Lake Conley); Shed(s); Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Living room/dining room combo; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Aluminum window frames; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry features: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Recommended offer: $129k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.7% in Holiday — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#623 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $146k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.05%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,384
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2033 Maui Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	1mo	$120,000	$114	92
2032 Waterview Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	1mo	$165,400	$157	90
2127 Kona Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+2%)	9mo	$137,000	$127	81
2101 Maui Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	960 (-9%)	0mo	$135,000	$141	78
3852 Bywater Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	968 (-8%)	2mo	$170,000	$176	78
2013 Wailua Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	960 (-9%)	1mo	$113,000	$118	77
1934 Shady Cv	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,108 (+5%)	2mo	$90,000	$81	77
3835 Lomi Lomi Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,190 (+13%)	2mo	$131,000	$110	75
2011 Melody Dr	0.41mi	2/1.5	1,116 (+6%)	6mo	$75,000	$67	65
2125 Kepner Dr	0.34mi	2/2.0	934 (-12%)	3mo	$80,000	$86	63
3544 Tiki Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-4%)	4mo	$110,000	$109	60
1841 Holiday Dr	0.54mi	2/1.0	920 (-13%)	6mo	$75,000	$82	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-9,890
• Equity at exit: $21,844

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,125
• Equity at exit: $12,667

Cash invested: $41,020 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34691

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,627 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$768
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,827/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,322

Max offer price $146,500

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,625
• Closing costs: $4,395
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3749 Beechwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,673	$1.65	13d	1	0.18mi
3711 Redwood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,850	$1.35	15d	1	0.20mi
2051 Pleasure Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	24d	1	0.26mi
4334 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,450	$1.89	24d	1	0.31mi
4337 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	24d	1	0.33mi
3521 Allandale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,800	$1.32	24d	1	0.35mi
3742 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,800	$1.92	24d	1	0.35mi
4326 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit 14E Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	768	$2,000	$2.60	24d	1	0.40mi
2132 Kepner Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	920	$1,295	$1.41	20d	1	0.40mi
3446 Cincinnati Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,906	$1.57	5d	1	0.43mi
4351 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,150	$1.39	24d	1	0.43mi
3513 Trask Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,249	$1.25	24d	1	0.43mi
3536 Darlington Rd Holiday, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,950	$1.39	24d	1	0.46mi
3405 Wilson Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	861	$1,650	$1.92	24d	1	0.50mi
4354 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit F Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,500	$1.82	24d	1	0.52mi
4365 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,400	$1.70	24d	1	0.52mi
4356 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	825	$1,350	$1.64	24d	1	0.54mi
4313 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit C Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,300	$1.58	15d	1	0.54mi
1624 Springdale Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,575	$1.57	5d	1	0.65mi
2117 Calusa Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1205	$1,600	$1.33	5d	1	0.71mi
2117 Calusa Trl Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,200	$1.69	5d	1	0.71mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,404	$1.37	2d	13	0.75mi
3433 Atlantis Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	24d	1	0.78mi
3143 Pinon Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1034	$1,695	$1.64	22d	1	0.83mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	2d	9	0.83mi
3052 Salton St Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,600	$1.50	24d	1	0.88mi
4620 Tropical Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	2d	1	0.89mi
3623 Holiday Lake Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1004	$1,525	$1.52	24d	1	0.94mi
4823 Longwood Ave Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1122	$1,800	$1.60	5d	1	0.97mi
3531 Rosewater Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	907	$1,795	$1.98	24d	1	1.00mi
2814 Jacob Crossing Ln Holiday, FL	3.0	2.5	1444	$1,995	$1.38	24d	1	1.01mi
4723 Aegean Ave Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,636	$1.64	5d	1	1.01mi
2610 Templewood Dr Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	5d	1	1.02mi
3838 Staysail Ln Unit 3838 Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1114	$1,500	$1.35	24d	1	1.02mi
2509 Sweetwood Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	988	$1,650	$1.67	18d	1	1.03mi
4835 Blossom Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,700	$1.45	24d	1	1.03mi
1440 Brixton Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	952	$1,707	$1.79	24d	1	1.05mi
3530 Oxford Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,495	$1.38	22d	1	1.06mi
1552 Alert St Holiday, FL	3.0	1.0	956	$2,100	$2.20	5d	1	1.09mi
1351 Whitehall Ln Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	1078	$1,550	$1.44	24d	1	1.09mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr
• Likely covers: trash

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $146,500 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $146,500 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $146,500 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $146,500 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $146,500 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $146,500 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $146,500 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $146,500 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $146,500 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $146,500 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $146,500 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $146,500 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $146,500 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-03-01
    price $146,500
15. 2026-01-20
    listed $149,000 Active
16. 2010-02-17
    soldstatus $65,000
17. 1991-12-01
    soldstatus $43,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,827 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,827 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 32% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,206
• − Property taxes: −$1,827
• − Insurance: −$732
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$4,262
• Taxable income: $619
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$148
• After-tax cash flow: $2,743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Holiday

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #623
• US rank: #12124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 33,730
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,232
• Household income: $50,288
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.84%
• Current HPI: 326.9843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+240.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $146,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Listed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1991-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,827 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.