817 S Elm St · Mart, TX
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 4/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 108°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 24 days/yr
Wind risk 7/10 · Major
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 78.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Livability +3.4/5.0
- Schools +2.7/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +1.7/10.0
$25,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Tear down house on flat, level lot. House almost certainly cannot be saved.
Key facts
- 7,492 sq ft lot
- Built 1930
- Listed 223 days
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $576 ($7k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($948 rent vs $25k).
- Recommended offer: $22k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 33.9% vs local median 4.8% in Mart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 67/100 on livability (#586 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
- Mart ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #589 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 3.79% ✓
- Cap rate
- 33.95%
- Cash-on-cash
- 98.76%
- DSCR
- 5.39
- GRM
- 2.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $86,765
- List price
- $25,000
- Delta
- -71.19%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 17 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 610 S Falls St | 0.28mi | 2/1.0 | 960 (+0%) | 3mo | $17,900 | $19 | 84 |
| 119 S Falls St | 0.64mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,008 (+5%) | 4mo | $239,000 | $237 | 49 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 99.8%
- Equity multiple
- 5.67×
- Total profit
- $32,655
- Equity at exit
- $3,728
- IRR
- —
- Equity multiple
- 11.82×
- Total profit
- $75,740
- Equity at exit
- $2,162
Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 76664
- Home prices YoY
- -3.2%
- Active inventory
- 60
- Price-to-rent
- 2.2×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $948 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$131
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$31 /mo · $375/yr
- Insurance
- −$10
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$199
- Net cashflow
- $576
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $593 | -5% $585 | +0% $576 | +5% $567 | +10% $559 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $501 | -5% $539 | +0% $576 | +5% $614 | +10% $651 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $589 | -0.5pp $582 | base $576 | +0.5pp $570 | +1.0pp $563 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $6,250
- Closing costs
- $750
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 3 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 602 E Navarro St Mart, TX | 2.0 | 1.0 | 726 | $595 | $0.82 | 14d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 318 N Waco St Mart, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1075 | $1,395 | $1.30 | 14d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 208 N Lumpkin St Mart, TX | 2.0 | 1.0 | 988 | $950 | $0.96 | 14d | 1 | 1.03mi |
Listing history 21 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $25,000 Active 223 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $25,000 Active 222 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $25,000 Active 221 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $25,000 Active 220 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $25,000 Active 218 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $25,000 Active 217 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $25,000 Active 215 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $25,000 Active 214 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $25,000 Active 213 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $25,000 Active 212 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $25,000 Active 209 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $25,000 Active 208 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $25,000 Active 207 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $25,000 Active 206 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $25,000 Active 205 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $25,000 Active 204 DOM
-
2025-10-20$25,000 Active 75-char remark
Show marketing remark (75 chars)
Tear down house on flat, level lot. House almost certainly cannot be saved.
-
2025-06-06historical
-
2024-12-06$30,000 Active
-
2024-07-08soldstatus
-
2000-08-11soldstatus
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $11,375
- − Mortgage interest
- −$1,400
- − Property taxes
- −$375
- − Insurance
- −$125
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$910
- − Management
- −$910
- − Depreciation
- −$727
- Taxable income
- $6,927
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,663
- After-tax cash flow
- $5,251/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Mart ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4829190
- Math proficiency
- 32% ▼ -2.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 32% ▲ 2.00%
- Median HH income
- $38,915
- Composite
- 26.81/100
- National rank
- #7116
- State rank
- #589 of 826 in TX
Livability — Mart
- Score
- 67/100
- State rank
- #586
- US rank
- #11177
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Population (ZIP)
- 3,425
Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 264,191 people
- By 2030
- 273,578 · +3.6%
- By 2040
- 291,506 · +10.3%
- By 2050
- 308,044 · +16.6%
- By 2075
- 349,648 · +32.3%
- By 2100
- 364,779 · +38.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 61% Black 20% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 9%
- Common ancestry
- Serbian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 2% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 92% English-only · Spanish 8%
Political lean MEDSL · McLennan
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -6.56%
- Current HPI
- 200.9535
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
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| Technology | 5 | $198B |
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| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
|
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| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
|
||
| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
|
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| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
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Price history
-16.7% since first listed5 events — show timeline
- 2025-10-20 Listed $25,000 NTREIS
- 2025-06-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
- 2024-12-06 Listed $30,000 NTREIS
- 2024-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
- 2000-08-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
Property tax history
+12.9%/yrLatest (2025): $1,871 · +74.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…