435 River Run Way · San Antonio, TX 78219

$198,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily · 63 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $142/sqft · 8% below area Est $216k · 8% under $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Secondary bedrooms
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• San Antonio ISD (urban): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #805 of 826 in TX (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,537 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.03%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,499
• List price: $198,499
• Delta: -8.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
443 River Run Way	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	1mo	$211,999	$151	99
410 River Run Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	1mo	$209,999	$150	96
442 River Run Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	2mo	$209,999	$150	96
458 River Run Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	2mo	$200,999	$143	96
402 River Run Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+1%)	1mo	$214,999	$152	95
414 River Run Way	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-10%)	1mo	$194,999	$154	80
202 Reuben Kemper	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+3%)	2mo	$200,000	$138	76
450 River Run Way	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+12%)	2mo	$217,999	$138	70
451 River Run Way	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	2mo	$220,999	$138	69
418 River Run Way	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	1mo	$225,999	$141	68
527 River Run Way	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	2mo	$211,999	$132	61
5943 Tree Vw	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	2mo	$134,900	$112	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.73% appreciation · 7.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $23,371
• Equity at exit: $86,242

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $110,356
• Equity at exit: $130,614

Cash invested: $55,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78219

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Rents YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,655 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,041
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$248 /mo · $2,977/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,774

Max offer price $184,891

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,625
• Closing costs: $5,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
462 River Run Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,555	$1.10	23d	1	0.06mi
463 River Run Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,545	$0.97	21d	1	0.06mi
414 Retama Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1836	$1,800	$0.98	23d	1	0.20mi
535 Wild Olive Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,550	$0.99	4d	1	0.24mi
518 Wild Olive Way San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	1472	$1,550	$1.05	21d	1	0.24mi
603 Wild Olive Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,600	$1.33	23d	1	0.26mi
6410 Magee Run San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,715	$1.18	10d	1	0.27mi
242 Ambush Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,495	$1.17	23d	1	0.28mi
6102 Walnut Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1611	$1,750	$1.09	43d	1	0.29mi
6110 Willow Point Blvd Unit NA San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1850	$1,750	$0.95	23d	1	0.29mi
6110 Willow Point Blvd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1833	$1,795	$0.98	10d	1	0.29mi
6110 Willow Point Blvd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1833	$1,795	$0.98	20d	1	0.29mi
6422 Magee Run San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,690	$1.17	17d	1	0.29mi
6422 Magee Run San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,690	$1.17	23d	1	0.29mi
6422 Magee Run San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	1d	1	0.29mi
550 Retama Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,750	$1.45	4d	1	0.32mi
115 Katy Post San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1725	$1,995	$1.16	23d	1	0.33mi
6406 Kemper Pl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,499	$1.03	14d	1	0.34mi
627 Retama Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1776	$1,900	$1.07	23d	1	0.35mi
422 De Herrera San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,595	$1.10	23d	1	0.36mi
422 De Herrera San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,625	$1.12	43d	1	0.36mi
127 Expedition Way San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,400	$1.47	23d	1	0.38mi
6427 Kemper Pl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,700	$1.34	17d	1	0.39mi
134 Samuel Kemper San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	12d	1	0.42mi
6334 Willow Point Blvd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,797	$1.20	23d	1	0.43mi
5847 Tree View St San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1362	$1,900	$1.40	17d	1	0.70mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $198,499 Pending 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,499 Price Change 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,499 Price Change 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,499 Price Change 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,499 Price Change 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $198,499 Price Change 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $198,499 Price Change 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $197,999 Price Change 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $197,999 Price Change 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $197,999 Price Change 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $197,999 Price Change 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $202,999 Price Change 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $202,999 Price Change 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $202,999 Price Change 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $202,999 Price Change 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $212,499 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    The Kitson- An inviting open-concept floorplan serves as the heart of this single-level home, providing for seamless transitions between the kitchen, dining area and family room. A restful owner's suite is located at the back of home, featuring a comfortable bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms can be found off the entry. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

17. 2026-05-13
    price $212,499 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    The Kitson- An inviting open-concept floorplan serves as the heart of this single-level home, providing for seamless transitions between the kitchen, dining area and family room. A restful owner's suite is located at the back of home, featuring a comfortable bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms can be found off the entry. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

18. 2026-05-12
    price $207,499 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    The Kitson- An inviting open-concept floorplan serves as the heart of this single-level home, providing for seamless transitions between the kitchen, dining area and family room. A restful owner's suite is located at the back of home, featuring a comfortable bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms can be found off the entry. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

19. 2026-05-10
    price $207,499 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

20. 2026-05-09
    listed $226,999 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

21. 2026-04-16
    listed $226,999 New 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    The Kitson- An inviting open-concept floorplan serves as the heart of this single-level home, providing for seamless transitions between the kitchen, dining area and family room. A restful owner's suite is located at the back of home, featuring a comfortable bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms can be found off the entry. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,119
• − Property taxes: −$2,977
• − Insurance: −$992
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,589
• − Management: −$1,589
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$5,775
• Taxable loss: −$4,537
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,089
• After-tax cash flow: $-40/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It has a good exterior, interior, and systems, and is move-in ready. Potential value can be added through painting, landscaping, and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Antonio ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838730
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $30,952
• Composite: 13.57/100
• National rank: #9512
• State rank: #805 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,924
• Household income: $52,094
• Rent vs Own: 46.1% rent · 53.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 852.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% Two or more races 27% Black 26% White 16% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.73%
• Current HPI: 328.5107
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.72%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $212,499 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $212,499 LERA
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $207,499 LERA
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $207,499 Zillow
• 2026-05-09 Listed $226,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-16 Listed $226,999 LERA