5239 Spring Creek Dr · Plant City, FL 33811

$330,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1987 0.50 ac lot ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome to your slice of country living with city convenience! This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Lakeland is ideally located right off County Line Road—so close to Plant City you’ll feel like you’re there, but without the Hillsborough County property taxes. Conveniently situated near the new Publix, shopping, dining, and quick access to I-4, commuting to Tampa or Orlando is a breeze. Don’t let the exterior fool you—this home offers more space than it appears from the outside. Inside you’ll find a comfortable layout with plenty of room for everyday living. Situated on a spacious half acre with a fenced in backyard t

Key facts

• Quick access to i-4
• Fenced in backyard
• Spacious half acre

Tags

• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• LARGE BARN
• ADDITIONAL SHED
• SPACIOUS HALF ACRE
• QUICK ACCESS TO I-4

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.5 acre (dimensions ~103 x 212, asphalt road access)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated; Homestead status indicated

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected; Cable available; Public utilities available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property; One story; East-facing entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Exterior storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Solid wood cabinets; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-583/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southwest Elementary School (math 52% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 382 students, 60% FRL); Sleepy Hill Middle School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,090 students, 66% FRL); George W. Jenkins Senior High (math 25% / reading 49%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,451 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 363 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,794 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.63%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-63,841
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-87,709
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33811

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,428 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,183/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,489

Max offer price $321,416

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $45	+0% $-49	+5% $-142	+10% $-235
Rent	-10% $-240	-5% $-144	+0% $-49	+5% $47	+10% $143
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $35	base $-49	+0.5pp $-134	+1.0pp $-221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   price $330,000
3. 2026-03-09
   listed $350,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,183 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,739 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,556/yr (+$130/mo · 131.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$1,183
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,331
• − Management: −$2,331
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$6,445
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,547
• After-tax cash flow: $964/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Plant City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #3587

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 68,525
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,472
• Household income: $90,263
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 477.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.57%
• Current HPI: 309.0061
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $330,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Listed $350,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,183 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.