828 Ellington Dr · Biloxi, MS 39532

$315,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,239 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2003 9,147 sqft lot Est $296k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this 4 bed 2.5 bath home in the desirable Popps Ferry Landing subdivision. Not only is this home located in a desirable subdivision, but it is also in a great school district!! The home features vaulted ceilings in the living room, a formal dining room, downstairs owner's suite with his and her walk-in closets, a soaking tub, and double vanity! Up stairs are three additional rooms and large bathroom! Call today to schedule your private showing!!

Key facts

• Dual walk-in closets
• Formal dining room
• Soaking tub

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• DOWNSTAIRS OWNER'S SUITE
• DUAL WALK-IN CLOSETS
• SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-474/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.5% in Biloxi — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in MS, #2,141 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, employment D-.
• Biloxi Public School District (urban): math 60% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #7 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: North Bay Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #11 of 375 statewide, top 3%, 754 students, 100% FRL); Biloxi Junior High (math 60% / reading 43%, grade C, #27 of 179 statewide, top 16%, 881 students, 100% FRL); Biloxi High School (math 65% / reading 53%, grade C+, #7 of 197 statewide, top 3%, 1,728 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 59% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 393 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $315k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,091 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.54%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $295,548
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
828 Ellington Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,411 (+8%)	1mo	$315,000	$131	83
874 Brentwood Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	2,166 (-3%)	6mo	$285,000	$132	76
860 Ellington Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,398 (+7%)	1mo	$225,000	$94	70
1585 Knoll Ct	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,316 (+3%)	11mo	$298,000	$129	69
872 Brentwood Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0	2,317 (+4%)	16mo	$300,000	$129	68
860 Brentwood Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,085 (-7%)	6mo	$277,900	$133	68
835 Ellington Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,036 (-9%)	10mo	$255,000	$125	65
1574 Rachel Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,959 (-12%)	10mo	$295,000	$151	64
1580 Applewood Ct	0.26mi	4/2.0	2,073 (-7%)	15mo	$291,000	$140	60
833 Heron Cv	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,075 (-7%)	10mo	$273,000	$132	59
864 Reunion Place Cir	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,919 (-14%)	14mo	$310,000	$162	55
769 Baybreeze Dr	0.53mi	4/3.5	2,072 (-8%)	15mo	$330,900	$160	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-53,703
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-50,594
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39532

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 393
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,431 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$177 /mo · $2,121/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,481

Max offer price $308,027

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $50	+0% $-39	+5% $-129	+10% $-218
Rent	-10% $-232	-5% $-135	+0% $-39	+5% $57	+10% $153
Rate	-1.0pp $119	-0.5pp $41	base $-39	+0.5pp $-121	+1.0pp $-204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
876 Kirkwood Dr Biloxi, MS	4.0	3.0	2008	$2,300	$1.15	45d	1	0.23mi
630 Bay Cove Dr #313 Biloxi, MS	3.0	2.0	2310	$3,450	$1.49	23d	1	1.13mi
630 Bay Cove Dr Biloxi, MS	2.0–3.0	2.0	1780	$3,450	$1.94	45d	2	1.13mi
327 Dianne Dr Diberville, MS	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,100	$0.73	15d	1	1.25mi
608 Kimberly Dr Diberville, MS	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,575	$1.04	23d	1	1.26mi
508 Tasha Dr Diberville, MS	3.0	2.0	1890	$3,200	$1.69	45d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   listed $315,000 Active
3. 2023-07-10
   soldstatus Closed 464-char remark

   Show marketing remark (464 chars)

   Come check out this 4 bed 2.5 bath home in the desirable Popps Ferry Landing subdivision. Not only is this home located in a desirable subdivision, but it is also in a great school district!! The home features vaulted ceilings in the living room, a formal dining room, downstairs owner's suite with his and her walk-in closets, a soaking tub, and double vanity! Up stairs are three additional rooms and large bathroom! Call today to schedule your private showing!!

4. 2023-06-04
   status Pending 464-char remark

   Show marketing remark (464 chars)

   Come check out this 4 bed 2.5 bath home in the desirable Popps Ferry Landing subdivision. Not only is this home located in a desirable subdivision, but it is also in a great school district!! The home features vaulted ceilings in the living room, a formal dining room, downstairs owner's suite with his and her walk-in closets, a soaking tub, and double vanity! Up stairs are three additional rooms and large bathroom! Call today to schedule your private showing!!

5. 2023-05-24
   price $279,999 464-char remark

   Show marketing remark (464 chars)

   Come check out this 4 bed 2.5 bath home in the desirable Popps Ferry Landing subdivision. Not only is this home located in a desirable subdivision, but it is also in a great school district!! The home features vaulted ceilings in the living room, a formal dining room, downstairs owner's suite with his and her walk-in closets, a soaking tub, and double vanity! Up stairs are three additional rooms and large bathroom! Call today to schedule your private showing!!

6. 2023-05-11
   status Active 464-char remark

   Show marketing remark (464 chars)

   Come check out this 4 bed 2.5 bath home in the desirable Popps Ferry Landing subdivision. Not only is this home located in a desirable subdivision, but it is also in a great school district!! The home features vaulted ceilings in the living room, a formal dining room, downstairs owner's suite with his and her walk-in closets, a soaking tub, and double vanity! Up stairs are three additional rooms and large bathroom! Call today to schedule your private showing!!

7. 2023-04-20
   historical 464-char remark

   Show marketing remark (464 chars)

   Come check out this 4 bed 2.5 bath home in the desirable Popps Ferry Landing subdivision. Not only is this home located in a desirable subdivision, but it is also in a great school district!! The home features vaulted ceilings in the living room, a formal dining room, downstairs owner's suite with his and her walk-in closets, a soaking tub, and double vanity! Up stairs are three additional rooms and large bathroom! Call today to schedule your private showing!!

8. 2023-04-20
   listed $280,000 464-char remark

   Show marketing remark (464 chars)

   Come check out this 4 bed 2.5 bath home in the desirable Popps Ferry Landing subdivision. Not only is this home located in a desirable subdivision, but it is also in a great school district!! The home features vaulted ceilings in the living room, a formal dining room, downstairs owner's suite with his and her walk-in closets, a soaking tub, and double vanity! Up stairs are three additional rooms and large bathroom! Call today to schedule your private showing!!

9. 2021-08-16
   soldstatus
10. 2021-08-04
    soldstatus 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Back on Market!!!! Beautiful spacious 4 bedroom home on a corner lot in the desirable Popps Ferry Landing subdivision. Lots of natural light, granite, SS appliances, stand up shower, walk in closets, formal dining, eat in kitchen, new hardwood floors in master bedroom, fresh paint, large fenced yard with shed, small secret playroom upstairs for child, 2 car garage and a bonus/sitting room upstairs that can be used for an office. This home has it all and it is close to everything. Shopping and restaurants less than 10 min away. Keesler AFB and beach less than 15 min away. The neighborhood will make you fall in love. Book your private showing today.

11. 2021-02-09
    listed $235,000 655-char remark

    Show marketing remark (655 chars)

    Back on Market!!!! Beautiful spacious 4 bedroom home on a corner lot in the desirable Popps Ferry Landing subdivision. Lots of natural light, granite, SS appliances, stand up shower, walk in closets, formal dining, eat in kitchen, new hardwood floors in master bedroom, fresh paint, large fenced yard with shed, small secret playroom upstairs for child, 2 car garage and a bonus/sitting room upstairs that can be used for an office. This home has it all and it is close to everything. Shopping and restaurants less than 10 min away. Keesler AFB and beach less than 15 min away. The neighborhood will make you fall in love. Book your private showing today.

12. 2013-04-24
    soldstatus $199,900
13. 2013-04-19
    soldstatus
14. 2013-02-04
    listed $199,900
15. 2007-08-01
    soldstatus
16. 2007-07-31
    soldstatus
17. 2007-05-16
    listed $229,900
18. 2004-03-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,121 · $177/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$368/yr (+$31/mo · 17.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,121
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,334
• − Management: −$2,334
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$6,001
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,440
• After-tax cash flow: $967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Biloxi Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2800630
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,608
• Composite: 45.26/100
• National rank: #2657
• State rank: #7 of 130 in MS

Livability — Biloxi

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2141

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Biloxi, MS
• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 63,281
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 36,662
• Household income: $68,710
• Rent vs Own: 36.7% rent · 63.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 15% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.04%
• Current HPI: 154.9975
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+37.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-15 Listed $315,000 MLSU
• 2023-07-10 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2023-06-04 Pending — MLSU
• 2023-05-24 Price Changed $279,999 MLSU
• 2023-05-11 Relisted — MLSU
• 2023-04-20 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2023-04-20 Listed $280,000 MLSU
• 2021-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-04 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2021-02-09 Listed $235,000 MLSU
• 2013-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $199,900 Public Records
• 2013-04-19 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2013-02-04 Listed $199,900 MLSU
• 2007-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-07-31 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2007-05-16 Listed $229,900 MLSU
• 2004-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,121 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.